The dynamics are that the chances are slim to none that Pawlenty can deliver his state in a presidential election. Please don’t misunderstand. I’m not criticizing him for it. I’m just saying that from an electoral standpoint, a winning presidential candidate must be able to deliver his/her home state.
I don’t dislike the guy. I think he’s as boring as watching paint dry, but I’d vote for him in the general if it came down to that. I don’t know if he has what it takes to win though.
Such a candidate should be able to, but I don't think he "must" be able to deliver his home state. If a conservative candidate from a liberal state is intelligent and dynamic enough to woo the voters from a majority of the dozen or so "purple" states, it's entirely conceivable that he could win the election despite losing in his home state. I don't think that Pawlenty is charismatic enough to pull off such a feat, but I certainly think that it is not impossible. For example, Governor Scott Walker in Wisconsin has angered enough union members that he is seen as a pro-growth candidate in most of the country, although his tough stance (and fraud in Milwaukee) could cost him his home state.