Posted on 06/13/2011 6:20:31 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Republican Reps. Elton Gallegly, David Dreier, Gary Miller and Brian Bilbray all get the short end of the stick in the new map and could have difficulty returning to Congress. The GOP would also have to defend Reps. Dan Lungren and Jeff Denham, who saw things get tougher in their respective districts.
On the Democratic side, Reps. Lois Capps, Loretta Sanchez and Jim Costa got more vulnerable, while Rep. Dennis Cardoza remains in potentially competitive district.
In the end, chaos is the order the day in the new map — forcing many incumbents to reevaluatw their political futures, with almost half of the state’s 52 current members of Congress drawn into districts with another incumbent (a 53rd seat is vacant).
The map will now be aired publicly and will have to be approved by Aug. 15, with nine of 14 commissioners required to support it. The commission is comprised of five Republicans, five Democrats and four who don’t belong to either party.
Here’s a look at some of the storylines the map has created (with a big thanks to Mitchell’s great breakdowns).
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Prop 14 prohibits political parties from nominating candidates in a primary and only the top 2 vote getters of any party move into the general. Write-ins are not allowed in the general.
Dems will run FAKE candidates like they ran that fake "TEA Party" guy in NY26. The SEIU in CA has decided to help elect Republicans, thread here. You *know* what kind of Republicans they'll choose to push.
We REALLY need the 2004 Presidential numbers here.
As a general thing I like the drawing of districts without regard to where any of the incumbents live.
Sounds like Bilbray is our guy in the most trouble. Gallegly too.
Capps and Loretta Sanchez are rats with tougher districts.
Sounds pretty much like a push. I guess you can say that’s good for the rats since they already have a large advantage in seats.
Remarkably in 4 elections (after the initial 2002 election with current lines that hardly saw any change itself, 1 R seat changed to D and 1 new R seat) which saw the majority party changed twice, a grand total of 1 Cali seat out of 53 changed parties (11th R to D in 2006). Hell of a gerrymander.
I expect that Elton Gallegly will retire.
Brian Bilbray has won tough races before and he’s the only one who has a chance in the district he’s running in. I’m grateful to him for taking such a chance.
Bob Filner is going to run for Mayor of San Diego. If he wins, the candidate to replace him will likely be state Senator Juan Vargas, a moderate who is pro-life and supported Prop 8.
The Central Valley districts are definitely ones to watch.
Lois Capps will probably be challenged by Abel Maldonado. He’s not a great conservative, but still much better than Capps.
Those four are, by default, Democrat scumbags. This is a done deal.
CA-20 is hurting economically because of over reaching EPA regulations which are cutting off access to water sources for farmers/ranchers. Costa could probably have been beaten last time with a stronger challenger, esp. a Latino.
I’d take the vote against Pelosi but I hate that twerp Abel Maldonado.
Yes if Vidak could almost win I think a Hispanic candidate would have.
Cali was a big disappointment in 2010.
I thought Harmer was a lock to take back the 11th.
And when they counted the abeseetee ballots the Tran-Sanchez race wasn’t even close, Tran was pushed under 40%, with a beefy 7 or 8% for some independent I never heard of.
Vidak and Harmer didn’t lose. They just merely counted up “enough” votes to make sure McNerney and Costa “won.” The national GOP, of course, went gutless again on not challenging those “results.”
Of course. But you can’t steal it unless it’s close enough.
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