Posted on 06/15/2011 7:18:08 AM PDT by Hojczyk
I have argued before if the economy doesn’t improve significantly before the 2012 election, Barack Obama will be the easiest incumbent to defeat since Jimmy Carter. But even if that happens, it probably won’t look like it until the last days of the campaign. I say that in part based on the Carter-Reagan experience.
The 1980 election was held on November 2. But as late as October 23, Carter held a small lead over Reagan (39 percent v. 38 percent, with 9 percent voicing support for John Anderson, who ran as an independent.). And that gap was essentially static since Labor Day. But on election day, Carter pollster Patrick Caddell informed the president his latest polls revealed a massive shift toward Reagan in the previous 48 hours. It was all coming apart for Carter, Caddell concluded. And by the time the election was over, Reagan had carried 44 of the 50 states and won 489 electoral votes v. 49 for Carter.
“It was truly a landslide and virtually none of us in the media, the political industry or the polling fraternity had foreseen its dimensions,” according to “The Pursuit of the Presidency 1980,” written by several Washington Post reporters. “But the elements for the upheaval had long been present.”
I’m not prepared to predict a Carter-like defeat for President Obama, since it depends on several unknown factors, from who the GOP nominee will be to the state of the economy and the country. But I am prepared to say right now the elements for a 2012 upheaval are in place, much as they were prior to the Reagan landslide and as they were prior to the 2010 epic repudiation of Obama and Democrats. And unless the economy swings around soon and in a fairly substantial way, Mr. Obama will be terrifically vulnerable.
Unemployment is now 25 percent higher than when the president took office, the deficit is 35 percent higher, and gas prices have more than doubled (h/t: NBC’s David Gregory). According to Pollster.com, the president’s rating on the economy is underwater by more than 19 percentage points (56.9 percent versus 37.7 percent), the widest since he took the oath of office. Only one-in-three independent voters approve of the president’s handling of the economy. According to the most recent CNN/Opinion Research poll, by a margin of more than 30 points, voters disapprove of his handling of health care; and by a margin of more than 40 points, they disapprove of his handling of the federal deficit. And roughly half of the nation believes we’re either in a recession or a depression.
I recently spoke to someone who is fairly well connected to the Obama White House, and he indicated the president and his team hadn’t even contemplated the possibility of a re-election loss. They comfort themselves with the beliefs the GOP field is fatally flawed, demographics are working to their advantage, and Obama is a spectacularly good politician. Even states such as North Carolina and Georgia will be up for grabs, they are telling reporters.
Based on the objective conditions in the country right now, this self-confidence borders on being delusional. Of course, that wouldn’t be the first such incident for Obama and his team, and it won’t be the last.
No election is fated in advance, especially one 17 months away. But there are certain rules that tend to govern American political
I pray that not only is Obama defeated in 2012, but that he suffers a humiliating defeat,followed by criminal investigations, indictments and jail time for him and his accomplices (Holder et al).
“Obama Has No Idea How Vulnerable He Is”
Oh, I think he does. Just yesterday I read an article where he was saying that Michelle and the girls were just fine with him being a one term President.
His internal polling has to be horrendous. Last time around he won Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania. This time around he stands a really good chance of losing all of them. I cannot think of a state where he lost in ‘08 and will likely win in ‘12.
I’m looking for coat tails. It might just be possible to get 2/3rds majority in both houses and the presidency.
The one problem I see is that there is no Reagan out there to run against Obama.
from your keyboard to God’s ears... if only.
Get rid of this sod in 2012, America!
After the fact, we learned that Jimmy Carter’s internal polling showed that a groundswell was building for Reagan. Part of it was due to the results of their one and only debate, which happened only one week before election day. That was the debate in which Carter said his then 13 year old daughter told him that the biggest issue in the world was the spread of nuclear weapons, and Jimmy was lampooned about taking advice from a 13 year old.
But even on election day morning, the newspapers said that the latest polls showed the election would be too close to call.
And I wonder if part of it was that the liberals in the MSM of the day couldn’t believe what internal polls such as Carter’s were showing, and just didn’t report the latest polls showing Reagan in the lead. That would have conflicted with the narrative that Reagan was too much the right wing extremist to ever be elected president.
they painted reagan as an extreme kook just like sarah. run sarah run.
“I’m looking for coat tails. It might just be possible to get 2/3rds majority in both houses and the presidency.”
Depending on who the GOP nominee is, that 2/3 majority may be necessary to keep our own guy honest.
The country may survive 0bama, but not the fools who put him there.
Will education solve the real problem?
I don’t know the answer.
Probably a form of exile is in store for Obama. He’ll leave on a “world tour” like some ex-presidents have done in the past & just never return. People like Eric Holder will be left holding the bag.
It depends on who the Republicans nominate. If Willard or Huntsman the Vichy Republican are nominated, they will lose.
What, me worry?
If we get 2/3 in both houses and the presidency,
it’s time to DISMANTLE leviathan.
Not only do we have to remove libs from positions of power,
we have to remove the positions of power themselves.
Don’t fret darlin’
We have plenty of kooks right here on FR who believe the awesome and magnificent Michele Bachmann (who has accompished nothing at the state or federal level) who is going to save the day for conservatives. With baggage.
Lucy and the football she swipes from Charlie Brown.
This is the final test on whether America fails or not, if Obama is reelected.. It’s all over for the US, seriously. Heck, things have gotten so bad that even a decent conservative might not even be able to save us at this point.
Obama will get much more than the BILLION dollars he wants to spend. It will come from foreign lands and people all over the world who dream of America's destruction.
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