Posted on 06/16/2011 2:20:48 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Rasmussen released the second part of its GOP primary polling this morning, this time concerning those potential candidates not in the race. The survey of likely Republican primary voters does not indicate a massive desire for more candidates to jump into the race, but support for bids by Rick Perry and Rudy Giuliani exceeds opposition. That isn’t true for Sarah Palin:
A plurality of Republican primary voters think it would be good for Texas Governor Rick Perry to jump into the party’s presidential race and bad for the party if former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin joined the field. They are evenly divided about former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 36% of Likely GOP Primary Voters think it would be good for Republicans if Palin enters the race, but 45% believe it would be bad for the party. Just 11% say it would have no impact. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Thirty-six percent (36%) also feel it would be good for the GOP if Perry enters the race. Only 21% say it would be bad for the party, while 26% think it would have no impact. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure.
As for Giuliani, best known for his leadership in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, 38% of likely primary voters believe it would be good for their party if he joins the presidential race. Nearly as many (35%), however, see his candidacy as bad for the GOP. Nineteen percent (19%) say it would have no impact.
Earlier, commenters on the first Rasmussen release wondered why the pollster didn’t include potential candidates in the survey, and this answers the question. None of the three got above 36% in demand for a run. Given the lack of any other potential candidates, this appears to bolster the argument that likely primary voters see the current field as sufficient.
The internals don’t look good for Palin in this instance. In almost all demographics, opposition to a primary bid outstrips support. Among men, it’s a 42/42 tie, but among women, it’s a double-digit deficit at 28/49. Palin trails in every age demographic and loses a majority among 40-49YOs, 34/51; she also loses a majority among independents planning to vote in the GOP primaries, 34/53. Black voters (53/26), those unsure of their ideology (70/27), and Tea Party members (49/33) support the idea of a Palin candidacy. Evangelicals are the only religious denomination to support a Palin run, but at a surprisingly low 44/38 mark. Palin also picks up support from lower-income levels below $40K and the $60-75K demo, but loses the other income demos.
The numbers for Perry and Giuliani aren’t bad, but they’re not “draft”-level figures, either. A Perry run would be seen positively across the board, but not terribly enthusiastically. He actually gets a majority of Tea Party voters (53/17), scoring better among them than Palin, and a majority among black voters, as does Giuliani, who also gets a majority of 30-39YOs. Otherwise, support for any of the three is rather tepid, at least at this point.
One interesting point: Black voters are enthusiastic about all three potential bids, by a majority in each case. They don’t appear to be satisfied with the current field.
Your spam post has lost its cuteness factor. Multiple posters have answered your question on various threads, yet you continue to ask it.
Are you purposely trying to annoy people, or do you just not read your pings?
I’m not convinced those are the primary reasons (no pun intended). In general terms, women and men communicate and perceive things differently. What is it about women that Gov. Palin hasn’t yet been able to convince that she’d make a good U.S. president?
Sure, but if you load it with FIFO’s that weight argument then the formula may be true for the info in it but may not true relevant to reality.
So, you want him to rig the poll to give the conclusion you want to see?
Rasmussen has been the only reliable pollster out there.
Talk about executing the messenger.
Palin should ignore the polls anyway. They are a result of a constant pounding but the media but can be overcome with a well-run campaign.
You're hardly an unbiased commentator here. Nice, how you so quickly side with anyone who expresses the slightest doubt about Palin.
This is NO surprise....Sarah Palin is what the GOP needs...she can save their sorry arses...
Man, I really pity you. That you could look at one of the most genuine, and courageous patriot politicians this country has seen in a generation, and consistently under-rate and demean her, is mind boggling.
And, aside from her contract with Fox, she doesn't have to give up anything she's earned in the past year or two. It's just slanderous of you to suggest that she would weigh all that against serving her country as president.
Bye, bye POSER
“RE: Scott Rassmussen is horse crap? Interesting....
He is crap now because the poll results aren’t favorable to what a lot of people want.”
According to Rasmussen 33% support Romney and 36% want Palin in the race.
Now, that’s about the same to anybody. But just by not asking exactly the same questions about the two he created a ‘story’.
He wants his results reported- for the PR for his firm- and shaping them this way does that. It’s insulting to a reasonable person however (well, a reasonable person does expect it... LOL!).
Ok. Do the math and adjust accordingly.
I'm beginning to sense a paid political operative, a community agitator.
So this is saying something that a plurality of those polled think Palin should stay out because they fear that a plurality of those voting would vote her in?
It does make sense. The key is to be clear about the term "plurality." When there are multiple candidates, not just two, a plurality of less than 50% controls (there being no uniquely principled way to decide among more than two candidates).Say, for example, that Sarah has 30% support and no one else can muster 20%. None of the other candidates is helped, all are hurt, by the entry of Sarah into the race. The majority, in that case, agrees on nothing except that they hope that Sarah Palin doesn't enter the race. Exactly, as you say, because of fear that she might win a plurality. And knock their own preferred candidate out of the race.
I would just love to hear the SPECIFIC rationale on how, in any way, shape or form, a Sarah Palin candidacy is “bad for the party”. “ ==========
The point seems to be that the Party remains concerned about the Party-as-usual, rather than the Party as it is about to become. Otherwise, we splinter. .
On Perry, he doesn’t hurt the party and has some appeal with Independents and women. Though I remain undecided, I want to hear from Perry. He has ten years of bragging rights and accomplishment as a conservative Republican, albeit, aided by the heavy hand of a wonderful conservative legislature to steer him away from political catastrophies of the mandatory Gardasil and the Corridor business.
Sarah’s a talker but has a much shorter resume due to her understandable resignation, and made an enemy of the media way too soon and can’t seem to recover. They have her corraled. Simple.
This "woman thing" is serious. Rush has talked about it many, many times on his show. He can't explain it, but he doesn't deny that it's real.
I'm around college kids and the young Republicans I see are not very enthused about Palin. Now, you can dismiss these reports all you want and claim her real support is "hiding" or that the polls are "lying." Been there, done that, last two elections. Or you can take them at face value and suggest she might have a ways to go in attracting these particular groups of voters.
I don't see why that is different than saying Ron Paul has a long way to go in attracting the national security voters, or that Mitt Romney has a looooong way to go in attracting the pro-life voters.
Polls taken at this time in the game are being paid for to shape opinion... not to report on opinion. Smart choice!
LLS
Hotair’s analyses of this part of the poll is laughably stupid.
I don’t know where Rass did the polling for this. My experience is that all the women I know or talk to love Sarah and want her to run. The women who might not like her are probably influenced by the lamestream media. Women tend to form their opinions according to the input they receive from the media. Why they still watch the liberal media is a mystery. I think an awful lot of women simply have no idea what is going on in the political arena and could care less. Somebody (maybe a friend) that Sarah Palin was stupid and that’s good enough for them. If we can figure out a way to reach those women we can change their minds. I still think that Sarah reached a lot of them with the reality show. The ones I call the Wall Mart people. I really do believe that “Sarah’s Alaska” was a very positive thing for Sarah. How else would she ever have exposed herself to the entertainment TV only people?
She’s bad for the party because she doesn’t “go along to get along”, that the RINO’s have been so accustomed to.
Don’t want to upset the martini cart, now do we?
So what if we get four more years of the Toxic Zerø.
Myth Romney all the way! (do I really need to say it?)
You about nailed it. Money is the bottom line in most endeavors.
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