Oil will hit $150 in U.S. despite IEA -Guild

Reuters ^ | July 6, 2011 | Ikuko Kurahone

[NRG1973]

The price of physical crude oil will hit $150 a barrel this year in the United States due to unrest in North Africa and the Middle East, despite the emergency oil stock release coordinated by the International Energy Agency (IEA), a U.S. fund manager said.

Monty Guild, the chief executive of Guild Investment Management, said the IEA's move did not change oil's fundamentals.

"Our opinion continues to be oil prices will reach $150 barrels this year due to the fighting near Saudi Arabia," Guild told Reuters in a telephone interview.

He was referring to escalating violence in countries such as Syria and Yemen. These countries are very small producers but the market has been concerned about the spillover of the unrest to Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter.

North African producer Libya's oil supply has been disrupted since February because of its continuing civil war.

Last month, the IEA, advisor for 28 industrialised nations on energy policy, announced that member countries would release 60 million barrels of crude oil and refined oil products to cover the lost oil supply from Libya and to pull down high prices.

But international U.S. crude oil and ICE Brent crude futures have risen to the levels above where they were before the IEA announcement, after the sharp fall in the initial reaction to it.

"It has changed nothing. It is purely political," Guild said.

His oil price forecast refers to the average price to buy physical crude oil in the United States. Physical crude oil prices are $12-$15 per barrel higher than U.S. crude oil futures CLc1 depending on grades of oil and the geographical locations, he said.

[NRG1973]

It seems hard to believe that oil prices would reach $150 per barrel in this economy, but the reality is that crude oil prices will indeed be going up in the second half of the year. Lets hope there is no QE3 because that might make Guild's prediction a reality.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

On the bright side, the higher oil goes, the dimmer Ubama's re-election prospects.

It's better than nothing.

[Paladin2]

I guess that this is a good time to start filling the 6-mo tactical reserve.

[NRG1973]

An interesting quote from the article about QE2:

"To many observers it appears that all QE2 did was run up asset prices of gold, oil, stocks, and some other commodities," he said.

[silentknight]

Putting all the reports together - from the last few weeks

Oil could go down to $50
or
Oil could go to $200
OR
Oil could approach $150
OR
Oil could go down to $70

Orrrrrrrrrrrr

Depends on who you ask

lol

[NRG1973]

I’d like to know who was the guy who predicted oil going to $50 per barrel.

[Flavius]

Lucky for humanity it’s the only viable renewable resource

[org.whodat]

Dang, I just do no see anyway, there will not be more QE, money printing, they may change the name.

[Buckeye McFrog]

Such bold predictions are nearly always followed by a crash down to $50/bbl or less. Unexpectedly, of course...

[Turbo Pig]

It’s OK, obama has a whole bunch of oil left in the strategic reserves. He can just release it t bring the price down.

[NELSON111]

It seems hard to believe that oil prices would reach $150 per barrel in this economy, but the reality is that crude oil prices will indeed be going up in the second half of the year.

It's pretty easy to think of $150/bbl crude when you picture a middle east war brought on by palestinian statehood...which is still on track for September.

[mountainlion]

If these people can’t find a story to spin up they will make one up for themselves.

[Peter from Rutland]

Feed a story to the media to drive up the price ping.

[nickcarraway]

Why aren’t people discussing the person who has the most control of oil prices: Ben Bernanke. Oil prices have been up and down with the dollar. If Bernanke keeps devaluing it, oil prices will mostly rise.

[Argus]

One might also mention the drilling and refining bans imposed by the Obama/Salazar/Chu regime.

[sergeantdave]

Anyone that believes a story from the commie Reuter-rooter and written by some 50 IQ PC moron named “Ikuko,” please join me on a tour of bridges I have for sale.

[NVDave]

NB that the article said “price of PHYSICAL crude...”

Which means that they’re taking pains to differentiate between the real, physical market(s) and the increasingly suspect futures markets.

[Tigen]

SO did ya grow a garden?

[BfloGuy]

Lets hope there is no QE3 because that might make Guild's prediction a reality.

There has to be a QE3, though it won't have a name. Bernanke and this administration are committed to the idea that printing money is the only way to spur the economy. They have no other ideas.

The stock market will begin to drop soon for lack of funny money and, approaching a presidential election, the pressure will be on to pump-it-up.

[familyop]

"It seems hard to believe that oil prices would reach $150 per barrel in this economy,..."

Not really, for those of us who see through the special interest (global), sponsored propaganda. China, India and other designated countries on various continents continue to increase manufacturing and consumer demand. Much more oil is required for the process of getting over 1 billion new customers into vehicles and many other items.

Have fun. Enjoy the ride.