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Posted on 07/11/2011 7:15:23 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Bachmentum? Michele Bachmann’s momentum continues in her birth state of Iowa, according to a new poll of likely caucus voters by the Iowa Republican. Bachmann surpasses Mitt Romney by four points, while another Minnesotan has also muscled up the ranks:
Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann has surpassed former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in a recent Iowa poll that was conducted by TheIowaRepublican.com. With Bachmann now leading in Iowa, Romney has fallen to second place, but he is still well ahead of third place finisher Tim Pawlenty, who has overtaken Herman Cain my a miniscule margin.
Bachmann received support from 25 percent of likely Iowa caucus goers in the poll, while Romney is backed by 21 percent. The poll also shows signs of growth for former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who now stands in third place in statistical tie with Herman Cain at just under nine percent. Ron Paul finished with six percent, Newt Gingrich with four percent, Rick Santorum with two percent, and Jon Huntsman rounded out the field with one percent. …
While Bachmann’s lead over Romney is just within the margin of error, the poll’s cross tabs show how much momentum her campaign has generated in Iowa. Her favorability is ten points higher than Romney’s, who had the second highest number in that category. Her unfavorable figure is 14 points lower than Romney’s, giving her a stellar plus 65 favorability margin. Her numbers suggest that Bachmann has found a very effective way to appeal to caucus goers.
The candidate with the next highest favorable/unfavorable spread is Tim Pawlenty with a plus 48 margin. Like Bachmann, Pawlenty is well liked by caucus goers, but he has found it more difficult to move his overall polling number in the state. Pawlenty finished in third place in the poll by edgeing out Herman Cain, 8.8 percent to 8.5 percent. Pawlenty’s numbers have increased since the Des Moines Register poll showed him at 6 percent. A major factor could be the radio and television ads the Pawlenty campaign has been airing in the past few weeks.
Romney’s decline shouldn’t surprise too many people. He pulled out of the Ames poll next month, which is both an early test of the field and a fundraising opportunity for the state GOP. It’s not exactly shocking that enthusiastic Republican caucus goes might have gotten a little less enthusiastic about Romney after his withdrawal. I would expect a finish for Romney in Ames — and likely in January’s real caucus — at third or less.
Bachmann has to score well in Iowa and in the Ames poll to keep the media spotlight and political momentum. So does Pawlenty, who has gotten more aggressive in the state. His standing increased a little in this survey, barely edging out Herman Cain for third place, but he’s going in the right direction. Pawlenty needs a second place finish in January at a minimum to keep his presidential campaign viable, as New Hampshire will almost certainly belong to Romney. He has another four weeks until the Ames debate and straw poll to establish himself in his own backyard.
Still, the big questions for Bachmann and Pawlenty remain these: Sarah Palin and/or Rick Perry. If either or both get in the race before Ames, they could find themselves swamped out of the spotlight and the enthusiasm of caucus-goers.
Andrew Malcolm looks at the new numbers as well.
I doubt she'll be making any such announcement while she's still "on the clock" for jury duty. (That's apparently a 30-day window.) That pretty much rules out July.
But I've been guessing August 15 for a while, even without that particular complication -- that is, I'm thinking the timing may well be related to the Iowa Straw Poll, which is August 13. It's possible she might jump in just before, to try to capture a straw poll win and the corresponding headlines, but that event is all about paying to get supporters in the door to vote for you, which is not something you'd want to try to put together in a week or less. So, an announcement the following Monday could conceivably take the wind out of the winner's sails.
Furthermore, outside of political junkies, very few people are paying attention over the summer, and waiting to get into the race officially until, say Labor Day plus or minus a few weeks, doesn't really hurt with exposure to the general public. It appears that her campaign organization would likely be somewhat unconventional, so not lining up the "typical" organization support isn't as big of a deal, either.
(And, if such a strategy turns out to be a mistake, then perhaps she wasn't the right person for the job after all.)
Mid-August still gives her a good 6 weeks or so for fundraising before the Q3 reports have to be filed with the FEC, so plenty of time to raise money before the first filing.
The `Illuminati` have lost control of things... (LOL)
Iowa is tailor made for Bachmann. If she desn’t win there where would she win? I am surprised that anyone would be surprised that she would be leading Iowa at this point with the current field. You are also correct about that whackily worded pledge she signed.
Especially with Romney apparently ceding Iowa without a fight.
Reagan didn’t announce until “November” of 1979. Iowa and NH are the most over-rated primaries in the country!
I ‘will’ say this - whoever wins SC on JAN 28, will win the nomination!
-Monday, January 16, 2012: Iowa caucuses
-Tuesday, January 24: New Hampshire
-Saturday, January 28: Nevada caucuses, South Carolina
-Tuesday, January 31: Florida
-Tuesday, February 7 (Super Tuesday):
Alabama,
Arkansas,
California,
Connecticut,
Delaware,
Georgia,
Illinois,
Missouri,
Montana Republican caucuses,
New Jersey,
New York,
Oklahoma,
Tennessee and
Utah
Funny, I haven’t seen any Palin supporters flipping out. Palin supporters aren’t the ones continually asking, “When is she going to declare?”
True, but didn't the primaries/caucuses start much later in 1980 than they will in 2012? I really do think that September is pretty much the latest anyone can get it with a realistic chance.
Do yourself a favor & refocus on the principles/issues and forget about the personalities. This isn't a ball game.
IMHO the only reason to be in the race this early is to gain name recognition. Palin’s name recognition is 97%-98%. There is no upside for her to be in the race right now slogging it out with the also rans.
Of course Bachmann’s positive intensity ratings are dropping some. She started out with a quite high positive intensity rating but her name recognition was no where near as high when compared to some other candidates. Her name recognition has shot up dramatically over a short period of time. Her positive intensity rating is still high when compared to other candidates, but has lowered a bit in absolute terms as her name recognition shot up. The problem for her opponents is that she still has a high positive intensity rating relative to the rest of the field at the same time that her name recognition his rapidly rising.
Don’t try to project your feelings onto me.
Of those now running, I prefer Herman Cain but realistically, I don't see him winning. Michele Bachmann is someone I could easily support.
I’ll do better and ignore you from now on.
Freepers Love Sarah, time will tell who else does
Love her or hate her, the fact is, Palin will suck a ton of oxygen and attention away from other candidates if she announces.
Personally, I wonder if she would do more good as a non-candidate.
None of this has any meaning until Gov. Palin tosses her hat in the ring—or does not.
It’s all just hot air.
Then quit telling us you’re thinking about it, or you think you can win. Get in if you believe it otherwise quit sucking all the oxygen out of the room. And people say Bachmann is egotistical.
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