Quinnipiac Poll: Bachmann “Surging” Into Second Place

National Journal ^ | July 13, 2011 | Steven Shepard

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., has supplanted other hopefuls as the strongest opponent to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released early Wednesday.

Romney leads Bachmann, 25 percent to 14 percent. They are followed by two potential candidates who have not yet declared whether they will run: former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (12 percent) and Texas Gov. Rick Perry (10 percent).

Romney's share of the vote is exactly identical to the previous Quinnipiac poll, in early June. But Bachmann has jumped eight points -- from six percent -- to take over second place.

"Perhaps more than any of the other GOP contenders, Bachmann's fortunes may depend on whether ... Palin or Perry get into the race," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "All three of them are likely to appeal to the GOP's Tea Party constituency."

Palin has slipped slightly, down from 15 percent in June. Perry was not previously tested.

Rounding out the GOP field are businessman Herman Cain (6 percent); former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (5 percent); Rep. Ron Paul, R-Tex. (5 percent); former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (3 percent); former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., (1 percent), former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman (1 percent); and Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, R-MIch., (less than 1 percent).

[Vaduz]

To early to take trust in polls,a lot of thingd are going to change.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Just reporting latest jockeying news in the GOP Primary run.

[gov_bean_ counter]

Agreed, but I wouldn't even trust Quinnipiac a week out.

[Diogenesis]

Click here for HARRY info

[Cincinatus' Wife]

***CLICK Rick Perry growing up in West Texas pic for information

[The Bronze Titan]

The best horse has not entered the race yet!

I am holding my bets until that happens!

Here's the picture from the best horse in my lifetime:

SECRETARIAT

THE KENTUCKY DERBY:
==================
Secretariat broke last but gradually moved
up on the field in the backstretch, then
overtook Sham at the top of the stretch,
pulling away to win the Derby by 2-1/2 lengths.

THE PREAKNESS STAKES:
====================
Secretariat broke last but then made a huge,
ast-to-first move on the first turn. After
reaching the lead with 51⁄2 furlongs to go,
was never challenged and won Preakness by 2-1/2 lengths.

THE BELMONT STAKES:
===================
Only four horses competed against Secretariat
for the June 9, 1973, running of the Belmont Stakes,
including Sham, who had finished second in both
the Derby and Preakness. In the stretch, Secretariat
opened a 1/16 mile lead on the rest of the field.
At the finish, Secretariat won by 31 lengths (breaking the margin-of-victory record set by Triple Crown winner Count Fleet in 1943, who won by 25 lengths) and ran the fastest 1½ miles on dirt in history.

Secretariat's world record still stands, and in fact,
No other horse has ever broken 2:25 for 1½ miles on dirt.

[mad_as_he$$]

Pray away the gay is going to sink Bachmann.

[kittymyrib]

The same ruling class Republicans who thought McCain/Palin was a good idea are setting us up for Romney/Bachmann. They hope to snag conservative votes by allowing a conservative as the VP, but they’d still have one of their own at the top of the ticket.
No way. It didn’t work in ‘08, and it certainly won’t fly in ‘12.

[newzjunkey]

Romney & Bachmann would each reelect Obama.

[jla]

To 8 - I imagine going in that Bachmann pretty much ceded to ‘gay vote’ to the more liberal candidates. Of the straight electorate what % do you honestly believe will be bothered by this?

[Diogenesis]

Nice pic, but in the Harry poll, RINO Perry
got less than Krauthammer.

Perhaps he should spend a few years getting
rid of his RINO cred.

[mad_as_he$$]

Did you hear the interview with her husband where he is calling gay’s “barbarians”? The vast “independents” (people who can't make their mind up and are more worried about appearances than convictions) will be put off by that. You cannot be president of this country with a 15% margin of independents. In addition the MSM is going to tear her limb to limb. It will make the Palin thing look like a weenie roast.

[mad_as_he$$]

Dang - withOUT a 15%

[rob777]

"Perhaps more than any of the other GOP contenders, Bachmann's fortunes may depend on whether ... Palin or Perry get into the race," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "All three of them are likely to appeal to the GOP's Tea Party constituency."


The strange thing is that, if you go to the actual poll and look at the internals, it does not support that contention: "If Perry does not run, Romney would lead with 28 percent, followed by Bachmann with 16 percent and Palin with 13 percent.

If Perry were to run, but not Palin, Romney would lead Bachmann 28 - 17 percent with Perry remaining at 10 percent."

IOW, Bachmann actually does better against Romney with Palin and Perry in the race, as more of their votes would go to Romney than Bachmann if they were not in the race. She would still be second to Romney regardless if either, or both ran, but she is a closer second if they both run. It will be interesting to find out if the election actually plays out that way if either or both Palin and Perry enter. Would they actually take more votes from Romney than Bachmann, as this poll indicates? It is not the dynamic I would suspect.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

What do you make of this? Explain Pawlenty.

Source

[Socon-Econ]

I read in the Examiner today that Romney refused to sign a pledge against gay marriage. If true, can anyone opine how this will reflect the polls?

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Sorry about that. I combined two thoughts in Post # 16.

First — thoughts on the, “Who would would you not vote for?” numbers.

Second — why is Pawlenty — obviously with good likability — struggling so?

[Cincinatus' Wife]

I’m not sure.

It seems that various “pledges” pop up every campaign season.

I don’t know if anyone has ever done a study on their effect on an election.

[kevkrom]

Actually, I applaud Romney for that — I despise candidate “pledges” as a matter of principle. Even if I agree with what the pledge stands for, it comes across as pandering by the politicians involved.