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Posted on 07/19/2011 4:24:32 PM PDT by tobyhill
A lot of people assume that if the ratings agencies downgrade the credit rating of the United States, it will trigger a sell-off of Treasurys. Some even suppose that a sell-off would be automatically triggered by regulatory and fund charter requirements.
Fortunately, this isn’t true.
It’s very likely that a downgrade of the credit rating of the U.S. would trigger a sell-off, but it’s far from clear that investors would sell U.S. government debt. More likely the investors would sell risk assets—equities, high yield corporate bonds, mortgage securities—and actually buy U.S. government debt.
What's certain is regulations won’t require most holders of Treasury debt to sell after a downgrade.
The logic of why investors would buy Treasurys even if they are downgraded is relatively simple. The downgrade would introduce a new level of fear into the market, and investors typically respond to fear by putting their money in “safe” and “liquid” investments. There is no more safe or liquid investment than the debt securities of the U.S. government, regardless of the rating. Someday this pattern could break, but that day almost certainly won’t be when the widely discredited ratings agencies downgrade U.S. debt.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
Is he sure of what he’s saying? My problem with the finance / economics community is that many don’t have the foggiest idea about what they claim to know.
If a debt default doesn’t mean anything, by all means go for it.(USA number 1). But if it doesn’t, they’ll be hell to pay.
I guess it is better to err on the side of caution.
If the debt ceiling isn’t raised the market would probably PAY for T-BIlls- they’d have a negative yield!
If it is, they’re on their way to junk rating.
Thank you Washington DC, especially the press.
I went to freecreditreport.com and ran the US credit report. First time I ever saw a credit score of 3.
Then, if you want the democrat side to cave in and do whatever it takes to make a deal, up to and including over ridding a veto, just figure out how to cut money off to professors and foundation scum. If the fascists who see themselves as the elite get cut off at the knees Barry doesn't have anyone left in his corner. Not a democrat in this country will even consider heading into an election year with their best liars and bribe distributors unemployed.
Barrry and the Rats may make nice with union thugs, but they depend on their elite Nazi academic pals to do the real damage.
Breaking: The GOP wil raise the debt ceiling. They will also raise taxes. The GOP will not stop Obamacare. No Federal Agencies will be eliminated. The Ponzi will continue. Welcome to the Managed Life. Your Minders will be watching you.
Welcome to Independence, Self-Sufficiency and CWII! If the pubbies sell out, the prepper(ie)s, and the tea party will get such a boost that SOMETHING MUST GO...either the rino party or domestic peace...and trust me I will be investing in 5.56mm metals not US treasuries...
If the debt ceiling isn’t raised, the current debt will be even more secure since the bond holders are first in line.
Been investing in 5.56mm and .308 plus a few other heavy metals ever since Obami won the nomination. Jeez, I just wish I could see some other outcome, but I just figure it is all going to fall down soon. Ready to watch the cities empty as the looters find out that no more food, water or electricity is coming their way. What a CLUSTERF**K and it is our own fault for letting the same clowns get re-elected year after year.
The sheeple wont notice until the web crashes and the food stops arriving by magic into the stores. They will want someone to fix it fast but like humpty dumpty that aint gonna happen...
See Ya in one of the free states when TSHTF...
We have lost the debate. The MSM has ensured that and the American public is too stupid, by and large, to understand where we are headed with such a large debt and all these unfunded liabilities. So much so now that a majority subscribe to the one's plan. Yeah Yeah...biased polling...but even if it is biased...the fact that he has numbers that aren't in the 20's show that all hope is lost until reality hits THIS generation right between the eyes.
The only hope is a reset. So...since our wonderful "conservatives" are pushing for ONLY raising the debt a trillion a year over 10 years...and since sending spending BACK to the 2008 budget limits seems to be totally off the tables...I am for raising the debt limit and kicking the can down the road. Why?
It will give me more time to prep before the inevitable collapse. You see...if we do NOT raise the debt limit...the economy as we know it will come apart. You cannot stop 1.5 trillion in spending over night and not get riots in the streets. People who are used to sucking off the government teet will not sit idly by and starve...and those people are NOT conservatives.
So...I am all for kicking the can down the road. It gives me another year or two to build my prepper food pantry...store up ammo...get my family on board...etc.
Because honestly...I am not ready for it to fly apart in August. I need at least another 5000 rounds of 5.56 for the zombie hoards.
Selfish thinking? YEP. But I am pragmatic. I see no other possible outcome. There is NO heart in the congress OR the nation to make the hard choices. Too many FReepers look at life through the lens of FR. It ain't so in the real world.
We have lost the debate...and the GOP knows it.
Hope one of them is Texas. I live there now!
Take care.
This is pure bullshit. It is absolute insanity for the US to risk losing its AAA rating anyone believing otherwise is either a fool or a moron...
I say its simple math in the end... if 50% of the conservatives are prepared in any way while 75% of the sheeple (aka moderates and clueless middle) and 90% of the drones (wards of the state and other members of the dependent class) are not...we just have to last until the govt can no longer pay, communicate, or control the military and police, and if Katrina is the yardstick, having 5000 rds will probably be overkill for that phase...
Selfish? YEP is right. But why not be that way now? You have yourself and your family to take care. Kicking it down the road isn’t a bad idea now, it does give you more time. I can understand the feeling, every extra day gives me time to buy more ammo, buy more food and seeds, fix a few more things around the house and be ready for it.
Am I ready for it now? I have the means to be ready to fight to protect me and mine. Give me a few more months and I will be more ready to survive and, while not prosper, at least put food on the table and defend that which is mine.
Be selfish. Maybe it is time for conservatives to be more selfish; to take care of themselves and loved ones.
The surest way to lose our creditworthiness is to keep increasing our debt.
Despite what the media has told you we are in danger of losing our AAA because we have too much debt and are invreasing that debt.
We are on the same same path third world countries took to their banktuptcies. Those third world countries that had good creditworthiness were encouraged to borrow more, and more until they were broke- and broken- just like we are being told to do.
I'm saying don't be fools and fail to raise the debt ceiling. I've lived in enough third world countries and have experienced first hand the effects of having other nations with better credit ratings telling the governments of the third world country how to run its finances.
Increase the debt ceiling and get the debt under control. its two separate issues.
Well. I assume you mean “don’t keep increasing the debt”, since raising the debt ceiling will increase the debt.
I don’t see any way to cut or even slow the spending that’s put us in debt except refusing to borrow more to pay for it.
Since we will pay our debt that we owe even if the ceiling isn’t raised our creditworthiness will be improved.
There may be some confusion because we aren’t selling new debt. In times of confusion T-Bills become even more desirable to investors- again improbing our creditworthiness.
Only increasing our debt can hurt us. Just as it has other countries
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