Posted on 07/31/2011 10:13:54 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
ABC reports this morning that Congressional leaders have already begun briefing their caucuses on the eleventh-hour deal that emerged from the White House last night. Jonathan Karl notes that the deal is contingent on getting enough support from each House caucus to form a majority, and in the Senate to avoid a filibuster. We’ll come back to that in a moment, but Karl also updates the story on the deal. The topline numbers are apparently $2.4 trillion in matching spending cuts and debt-ceiling raises instead of $2.8 trillion, but now both are split into two parts:
The current framework would give the president the authority to raise the debt ceiling in two parts: roughly half of it now and the balance at the end of the year.
Each increase would be subject to a Congressional resolution of disapproval.
If Congress voted to disapprove that increase, however, the President could veto their disapproval.
The AP reported earlier on the $2.4 trillion number, too, although they say the cuts will be “slightly more” than the debt-ceiling boost. That’s still enough to get Barack Obama past the 2012 election, but not by much. It guarantees that the debt ceiling will be a 2012 election issue, although by now that was a given anyway.
However, the added McConnell wrinkle is interesting — and potentially a big win for Republicans. Essentially, Republicans get to claim credit for the cuts while laying blame for the debt increases on Obama. If they “disapprove,” Obama will veto the disapproval and end up owning all of the political baggage for the debt-ceiling increases. That’s a steep price to pay for Obama just to protect himself through the next election, although he could turn it on its ear and refuse to veto the second increase disapproval and force this fight all over again. That would, however, put the country back in “crisis” mode, and that would still be all on Obama.
This brings the deal closer to what I predicted yesterday; in fact, it almost matches it exactly. But can the leaders get the votes for it? If Obama endorses this deal, most Democrats will have no choice but to back it; after all, they have been doing the most Chicken Little screeching about the consequences of legislative failure. Boehner and McConnell will lose a significant number of Republicans, but both will probably hold a majority of their caucuses. I’d expect an agreement along these lines to pass quickly through Congress, maybe fast enough to avoid having to pass a $50 billion, two-week extension to gain time for the debate.
Update: Added “ceiling” to headline for more clarity.
Update II: McConnell tells CNN that they are “very close” to a deal. I’d interpret that to mean that they’re shopping the deal to the caucuses to make sure they can get the votes.
The "focus" on deficit and debt, when framed in its proper relationship to liberty vs. tyranny, is the most important focus American citizens could study today.
It was a focus of the founding and early generations of Americans, as is evidenced by the articulate and clear remarks of Jefferson below:
"To preserve [the] independence [of the people,] we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our election between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we run into such debts as that we must be taxed in our meat and in our drink, in our necessaries and our comforts, in our labors and our amusements, for our callings and our creeds, as the people of England are, our people, like them, must come to labor sixteen hours in the twenty-four, give the earnings of fifteen of these to the government for their debts and daily expenses, and the sixteenth being insufficient to afford us bread, we must live, as they now do, on oatmeal and potatoes, have no time to think, no means of calling the mismanagers to account, but be glad to obtain subsistence by hiring ourselves to rivet their chains on the necks of our fellow-sufferers." --Thomas Jefferson to Samuel Kercheval, 1816. ME 15:39
"I deem [this one of] the essential principles of our government and consequently [one] which ought to shape its administration:... The honest payment of our debts and sacred preservation of the public faith." --Thomas Jefferson: 1st Inaugural, 1801. ME 3:322
"I sincerely believe... that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity under the name of funding is but swindling futurity on a large scale." --Thomas Jefferson to John Taylor, 1816. ME 15:23
"[With the decline of society] begins, indeed, the bellum omnium in omnia [war of all against all], which some philosophers observing to be so general in this world, have mistaken it for the natural, instead of the abusive state of man. And the fore horse of this frightful team is public debt. Taxation follows that, and in its train wretchedness and oppression." --Thomas Jefferson to Samuel Kercheval, 1816. ME 15:40
Adjust for inflation, WWII cost 4.7 Trillion Dollars. 2.8 Trillion Dollars in DEFICIT spending, not just “regular” spending, represents over half of a WWII. Mind boggling. Think of all of the aircraft carriers, planes and tanks etc built during WWII.
If I’m reading this right, Obama and the dems will own the downside, and pubs will own the upside.
Every word has to be read and totally understood. I haven’t trusted lawyers and politicians since Kennedy was shot. Not being paranoid, but I don’t much of anything coming out of D.C.
they own the press lock, stock and barrel. This is the thing that a lot of folks don’t get. The press will blame the Repubs for anything bad even if the Repubs had no part of it.
You’re so right. This means nothing yet, it’s merely a suggested bill, not one that has passed both houses and been signed into law.
“If I’m reading this right, Obama and the dems will own the downside, and pubs will own the upside.”
You can safely assume you have misread anything that would produce that result. Ain’t going to happen.The hidden component of the deal was let out of the bag when Chucky Schumer admitted that the second increase component could result in “revenue” increases. If the commission cannot agree on cuts then defense gets slashed by 50 percent, which Republicans cannot accept. The democrats will then use the across the board cut mechanism, aimed at the defense budget, as a way to force republicans to give in on tax increases.
I say NO...Stick with cut, cap, and balance; or, stay with the original Boehner plan. The Boehner plan is better than this new bait and switch offer from Obama because it places deficit and debt debates at the center until the 2012 elections.
How can someone write something this fantastical?
“This brings the deal closer to what I predicted yesterday”
Oh...
Watch this, this is how the "media" will portray it!
This will be an amazing accomplishment by the teaparty types (me).For only having one third of goverment control.
As they say, "it's not perfect". But it will be a big help in the run up to Novembers elections when that flop-eared S.O.B, Dingy Harry, Turbin Durbin, San Fran Nan and Chuck U Schumer have to go in front of America again and try to spin their total failure into reasons that they should be returned to power.
Should make for enjoyable fall viewing.
Right, see my post 7. It’s all just BS at this point.
This McConnell design of “disapproval” is absurd and should be stopped.
If the cuts are there, grant him a ceiling increase. Period.
It has to become law first, it’s all just fantasy at this point, but if it passes both houses and is signed into law in this form it will be in no small part due to the pressure applied by TEA Party Patriots.
OK, show of hands.
How many think there will be a single cut - as in funding reduced?
ANyone?
The last trillion dollar cut turned out to be something in the several million - range
Nove will be a bloodbact for both parties, no matter how this turns out. Peple are getting PI$$Ed over the game playing - while the house burns down.
Exactly correct. All this imaginary calumny that will theoretically be heaped upon the Dear Leader is just a stupid fantasy. These backstabbing fools are trading a $2.4 trillion check for the faint possibility of “embarrassing” the Dear Leader later on.
1.) Like he cares. Like his voters care. Which crowd do you hope to preach this to?
2.) As if the calamatous wreckage of our economy weren’t enough of an issue to run on. That’s quite a steep price to pay for one small arrow in an already bursting quiver...
3.) Those of us who were instrumental in gaining a near clean sweep of Republicans in the ‘10 Elections are slapped in the face yet again. We dared to hope, to place our trust in the Republican Leadership. All we were told was to “get our asses in line.” I can tell you where my ass will be, Speaker Boehner, it will be donating money and making phone calls for your Tea Party primary opponent.
This was it for the Republican Leadership. They betrayed us, sold us down the river, and now expect us to shut up and rejoice in their actions. We know who you are now, without a scintilla of doubt. And you are not our friends.
Especially if they try to pass any BIG spending packages before that time to further the agenda and strengthen their base.
He should have taken the deal then. Now with the 2 tier deal he's got to discuss cuts during election season.
Obama got burned....BAD.
Fox says the senate is finished for the day. Is Reid banking on the Asian markets tanking?
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