Posted on 08/12/2011 8:50:04 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Given that Texas Gov. Rick Perry plans to announce his presidential candidacy tomorrow, my ears have been especially perked for mentions of his name out here in Iowa. So far, he’s only come up a couple of times, but those comments — not surprisingly — suggest Iowans, at least, feel slighted at his decision to skip the debate and straw poll. They don’t seem to feel obligated to welcome him here when he arrives on Sunday, either.
Yesterday, for example, at a pre-debate event hosted by The Heritage Foundation, Rep. Steve King told us he thinks Perry’s decision to declare in South Carolina and to skip out on this week in Iowa was a “colossal blunder.” That might be wording it a little strongly, but it does still raise the question: Will Perry lose more than he’ll gain with the mode and timing of his declaration?
All of the obvious observations come into play here: Sure, he’s not satisfying the parochial concerns of Iowans, whose (rightful) pride in their state (it’s quite nice!) and its “first in the nation” status obscures their perspective on this. But he is setting himself up, immediately, to receive equal media attention as the respective winners of last night’s debate and tomorrow’s straw poll, thereby establishing himself as a top-tier candidate (which, based on polling, we always knew he would be anyway). It’s late enough in the game for voters to begin to be ready to narrow the field down and Perry, by the timing of his entrance, has basically guaranteed he’ll make the cut. But it’s also early enough to ensure voters — even Iowans — have forgotten his neglect of the straw poll by caucus time.
From my vantage point here in Ames, Perry hasn’t made a mistake at all. Of course, he’ll still have to perform. One of the reasons I was so reluctant to declare him the de facto winner of last night’s debate stems from my dislike (however unfounded) of what I call “the declaration dance.” Some part of me wishes everybody who wanted in had to declare on the same day, just so candidate comparisons could be a bit more fair and accurate. It’s possible Perry will pale in comparison to the other candidates as soon as voters see him on the campaign trail or standing on the national debate stage.
Now, I don’t personally see that happening. Like Sarah Palin, I am “enthused” that Perry has decided to run — and think he would make a formidable opponent to President Barack Obama. But it is possible — and, in fact, at least one prominent pundit has declared it probable.
“You’ll see Rick Perry,” Ann Coulter said today on Sean Hannity’s radio show. “He won’t live up to expectations and the American people will throw themselves into the arms of Chris Christie. That’s my scenario.”
Of course, Coulter’s comments reflect her determination to see Chris Christie enter the race at least as much as they reflect any kind of negative appraisal of Perry (and she said the whole sentence somewhat laughingly), but still, her comments come as an important reminder. The presidential campaign process is, in fact, grueling. Perry will probably withstand it with grace and presence — he seems like gold to me, tough and solid — but he could also fade.
That’s just one reason to hope the candidates here in Iowa get their acts together again and appear tomorrow at the straw poll a little more like the bunch who appeared on the stage in New Hampshire — informed, energetic and solutions-oriented. It’s also a reason to appreciate more fully that Romney still appeared presidential on the stage last night. And it’s a reason to look forward to the competition to come, because, even if that competition causes some to falter, it will also help to refine the eventual Republican nominee to the point where he or she can easily beat Obama in the general.
So Obama trolls like you are allowed to peddle the actual DU, Soros , Daily Koz talking points here !
TBP must be a Dem troll. That is the NEW Axelrod talking points sent out this week.
I read all about it yesterday !
That's not a worthwhile standard. Of course he won't live up to expectations. The question is, can he decisively beat Obama?
Bit of a difference between her and Christie.
Christie has said over and over again that his not running. He said he’s not qualified to run. He said he’d sign it in blood if that’s what it took. He’s never said he has any interest in running. He has no PAC and has never really gotten involved in backing and supporting candidates(aside from Mike Castle, that is) He has never really commented on any major national issue outside of his fight against teacher unions.
Can you think of one statement he’s ever made on natl security, defense, the war on terror, afghanistan, libya, foreign policy, etc...? Did he have anything to say about the debt ceiling? About Obamacare? About any major national policy outside of the teachers unions and some things on education and entitlement reform.
Palin, OTOH, has never said she’s not running. She’s never said she’s not qualified. She’s never said she has no interest. In fact, she’s said repeatedly she does have interest.
She has a very active PAC with a large donor base and a record # of $ among small donors(far surpassing even what Obama was able to do) that was among the top donors to GOP candidates last year and was largely responsible for elevating a number of them to natl promninence and coverage and for various primary wins.
She’s been very active in terms of commenting on natl issues of all stripes and sorts. She’s written 2 best selling books and gone all over the country doing just that. She’s been a major presence at Tea Party events.
She’s done things like speak at the YAF Reagan 100 banquet at the Reagan Ranch along with Dick Cheney. She met personally for over an hour with PM Netanyahu at his residence in Jerusalem. She endorsed Prosser in that WI recall and was the featured speaker at a huge Tea Party rally soon after his victory. She’s continued to be a major player in terms of political issues and debate.
She endorsed Branstad in IA, Ayotte in NH(and may have been what pushed Ayotte over in the primary) and Haley in SC last year. Just a coincidence she made picks in those 3 states I guess.
Her bus tour stopped in NH in June. She was in IA in June for the premiere of te documentary, now she’s back in Aug at the biggest event in the state, and she’ll return in early September for another major Tea Party event.
Her tour is stopping at various Presidential sites related to Truman, Reagan and Lincoln over the next few days.
I could go on.
The point is that Christie has shown absolutely zero interest in running and has repeatedly said he won’t and has done nothing ot make anyone think he will. Palin has never said anything of the sort and has done plenty of thinsg that would lead one to believe she will run.
I don’t think you can compare the two situations.
Perry is not much like Bush. He’s a bit of a mean so and so, and a bit distant, and not at all patrician. He is also a very savy politician. Thank of a non-neurotic Nixon with no fondness for Russian novelists.
I wonder how many people really know who he is. I think a large # hear TX Governor and just think it’s W again and say they want him.
The dirty little secret is Iowa didn’t matter until the Democrats decided it did in the 1970s. Republicans quickly followed suit and the Iowa-NH two step became sacrosanct.
Thanks Ann, but I think I am fully capable of choosing my nominee without your input.
BTW - We’ve had enough helpful advice from blue state “conservatives” and GOP establishment types to last a lifetime.
+1
“I think a large # hear TX Governor and just think it’s W again and say they want him.”
Are you kidding? Association with W is Perry’s biggest obstacle and he will need to disassociate himself from Bush as clearly as possible.
Rick Perry wants it both ways. He wants the benefits of being associated with Bush as TX Governor but he doesn’t want the harm from it.
Karl Rove himself switched Perry from Democrat to Republican in 1989.
I want the leadership we saw after 9-11, but don’t want No Child Left Behind or TARP.
I want the ban on partial birth abortion and the Unborn Protection Act and I am proud of the ban on giving tax dollars to agencies that promote or commit abortion and the limits on cloning and embryo destruction, but wish the President had vetoed more Bills.
Rick Perry respects George Bush, but he didn’t always get along with Bush’s staff and he didn’t agree with everything that happened in those 8 years.
Rick Perry is not George Bush!
Rick Perry is a Karl Rove Candidate.
Once a Karl Rove Candidate, always a Karl Rove Candidate.
Yup.
What is so important about NH?
The GOP should have a primary in every State on the same day.
Who has?!
Agreed. One primary in all states. Saves money and time.
Amen and amen!
Yeah they’ve been running that line for about a week. I think they are afraid of his record in Tx. He’s made some mistakes, but at least when the people say no, he listens.
Vs Obama yes. But in a GOP Primary? No. W is still pretty popular among Republicans.
I meant among republicans in a primary. I think a lot of Republicans hear TX Gov and think it’s Bush or think “well, the TX Gov won last time, lets go with him again”.
I’m just saying being TX Gov is a big deal. I wonder how much support is based on Perry or based more on the TX Gov. Also I think many see him as the most electable, viable alternative to Romney.
But lets see how he does. As of now I think the nominee will either be him, Palin, or Bachmann.
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