Poll: Republicans On Verge Of Shocking NYC Upset

Hotline On Call ^ | September 9, 2011 | Steven Shepard and Jessica Taylor

[justiceseeker93]

I think a Republican needs at least a 14 point cusion to overcome the fraud in a Dem district like this.

I'd say that even a three or four point margin might overcome the fraud. Yes, there will be fraud, but nowhere near 14 points. There will be Republican poll watchers on duty. It's not an "inner city" type of situation, if you get my drift.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Well, New York’s districts have obviously been modified, augmented or outright eliminated over the years, but the 9th district is one of the easiest to trace in respect to its ancestry. Although it was an obviously smaller/compact district in 1920 when it last elected a Republican (Lester Volk) in what was the 10th district, you can follow in a direct line from 1922 onwards all the members elected from it, starting with Emanuel Celler (who beat Volk) in the anti-Harding backlash and the district became the 15th with redistricting in 1944 and then the 11th in 1952 and the 10th again in 1962, and the 16th in 1972 (when the elderly Celler was beaten by Elizabeth Holtzman in the Dem primary), who was succeeded by Chuck Schumer in 1980 when she ran a losing race for the Senate against Al D’Amato, to 1982 when the seat became the 10th again, finally becoming the 9th in 1992 (and Anthony Weiner succeeding Schumer in 1998 with his defeat of D’Amato).

Obviously some portions of the current 9th have elected Republicans over the years, but the basic heart and ancestry of the district has been Democrat for almost 90 years.

[justiceseeker93]

This district is very conservative....

By NYC standards, perhaps, but not national ones.

Just looked it up: estimated Jewish population is 20% of total in the district (fourth highest nationally). Could the Jewish vote in protest against O's anti-Israel bias be a deciding factor in Turner's favor?

[BillyBoy]

>> Well, my source for the 1922 statement is DJ, and I’m sure that he would not have said that if the bulk of the district had been represented by a Republican at any time since 1922. I don’t know, maybe LeBoutiller (sp?) represented some of the Queens precincts from 1981-1983, but the part of the district that Chuck Schumer used to represent has been sending Democrats to Congress for many decades. <<

Indeed, I think when people say the district hasn't voted for a Republican Congressman since 1922, they're referring to the bulk of the territory now in NY-9, not the district number itself (if we simply went by that, I think "New York's 9th District" last had a Republican Congressman in the late 30s, but that district was quite different from the one currently labeled NY-9).

Basically this would be a huge morale victory for us if we win it. We all know the fallout from Weiner is a big reason why the Dems are struggling here, but if a Republican wins it will definitely be seen as a backlash against Obama for his anti-Israel policies. (and certainly that is a contributing factor to the loss). Look at how the RATs were able to spin their victory in NY-26 as a "mandate" on "medicare", even though the RAT winner only got 44% of the vote and would have never won if it wasn't for the fake tea party candidate getting 9% of the vote. If we win this one, we definitely want to bring up all their gloating from last time and asked what happened to the "medicare" mandate they had? I doubt they can argue NY-9 doesn't have many seniors on medicare.

I think the even bigger PR trump card is to point how this district used to be held by Schumer AND Geraldine Ferraro. Definitely an iconic Dem seat. Makes more sense than the silly "we won OBAMA'S senate seat!" which only sounds impressive if voters don't realize 1) It was Republican immediately BEFORE Obama won an open Senate race for it and that 2) He only held it for a SINGLE term (with 145 days of actual legislating)

>> I guess the whites vote majority GOP but enough peel off and vote with the minority Dem blocks...in national elections...strange voting...93% for Weiner in 2008 yet only 55% for Obama or Kerry? <<

Pre sexting scandal, Weiner was personally popular in the district as a local NY Jew who fought for his constituents on Isreal, blah blah blah, and only faced token opposition for re-election since he was an entrenched incumbent. The same wasn't true of national RATs like Obama and Kerry. You think that's weird... prior to the 2002 redistricting, I was represented by black panther Bobby Rush for Congress on the federal level, and staunch conservative Patrick O'Malley (who was attacked as "too right-wing for Illinois" when he ran for Governor in the GOP primary) in the state Senate. Had to do with the fact I was in the middle of two overlapping districts... northeast of me are a bunch of black neighborhoods that always vote RAT, southwest of me are the collar counties with hardcore conservatives.

>> since control of the legislature is split..it’s usually one DEM district, and one GOP distict that is euthanized..NY has lost population..mostly upstate..this area in NYC is growing..maybe they should rethink strategy and keep it <<

Heh. In Illinois it's the opposite. In 2002 the federal redistricting was designed as an incumbent protection plan that both parties agreed to, but the census data always shows Crook County LOSING population and the rest of the state gaining. The politicians ignore the logical action of eliminating a Crook county district based on the data, and instead always enlarge the Crook county districts to be bigger and bigger so they can sacrifice a downstate district. Last time they ended with a ridiculously shaped IL-19 district that stretchered from Springfield in the middle of the state to Cairo on the Kentucky border. The downstate districts in 2012 are going to look even worse though.

>> Wait for the actual election before getting hopes up. Agreed. I really hate to be a cynic and it would be great if Turner won, but I am not getting my hopes up over this. The Dems have the machine in this district and the GOP has absolutely nothing. The NYC Dem machine is just as nasty as the Chicago or Philadelphia machine. They will employ resources from all over NY and NJ to make sure the Dem wins. <<

That's my feeling as well. I am CAUTIOUSLY optimistic and I think we have a GOOD chance of winning this, but if I was a beating man I wouldn't make that assumption. Turner is ahead by around 5%-6%. That's close enough for the RATs to steal it. NYC is like Philly, Chicago, Madison, and the rest of the crooked city machines. Turner is definitely winning the LIKELY voters but the RAT machine can steal it with UNLIKELY voters like they did last November in Illinois when Bill Brady "lost" despite polling ahead of Quinn throughout the election cycle. You'll get guys like the one who showed up at my precinct and demanded to vote even though he wasn't in the voter rolls and told us the last time had had voted in an election was for Gore in 2000. The Dems will be out canvassing GOTV for nonresidents, corpses, felons, homeless, druggies, etc. This is the one area that's really hard for the GOP to combat. We basically need "boots on the ground" (as Rick Perry would say) on election day to prevent shenanigans and hold these RATs accountable, since the Dems have unlimited paid campaign workers in these urban areas to create as many votes as they need.

>> Orthodox Jews are not actually GOP locks like say Pentecostals. They are conservative compared to Reform but not so much compared to many Christian conservative sub groups. Hillary and Bill got in trouble with some rabbis around Monsey (or was it Monroe?)with donations shenanigans and I think charges came up. Past 3 POTUS elections the district has gone around 55% Democrat except 2000 when it went 68% 71% white, 14% latino, 4% black, 11% Asian << <<

What I'd really like to see is a breakdown of NY-9 by religious affiliation. The data on racial makeup of the district is easy to find but religious affiliation probably plays far more of a factor here and I can't find any statistics. Everyone says the district has a heavy Orthodox Jewish population. HOW HEAVY? Nationwide, they are only about 10% of Jewish voters, let alone the U.S. population. Even if it's much higher than the national average, I doubt Orthodox Jews make up a majority of registered voters in the district. A breakdown showing percentage of:
1) Catholic Christians
2) Protestant Christians
3) Other/Non-denominational Christians
4) Orthodox Jews
5) Conservative Jews
6) Reform Jews
7) Other/Non-denominational Jews
8) Another religion
9) Agnostic/Atheist
would give me a good idea what we can expect from NY-9.

You make a good point that Orthodox Jews are the most conservative of the three major Jewish denominations but they certainly aren't an overwhelmingly GOP voting bloc like Mormons, etc. I'm not sure what percentage of Orthodox Jews vote GOP. In any case, the other two Jewish denominations tend to vote Dem by big margins so how many conservative and reform Jews are in the district is an important factor. I'm betting the district has a large share of Catholic voters (my guess is they are the largest religion in the district, but probably a plurality than outright majority). Catholics are almost 50%-50% nationwide in terms of party affiliation but these are NYC Catholics, so it's probably more like 65% RAT - 35% GOP. Nevertheless, the fact Turner is a conservative Roman Catholic WILL probably help him get greater turnout among churchgoing Catholics than a generic GOP candidate in that district would normally get. I agree if Turner was an Orthodox Jew it would probably be good for an extra 2% or so. I don't think he'd lose any votes for being a Jew. The important thing is that several prominent Jews have endorsed Turner. This is certainly going to help him get more Jewish voters to turnout and vote GOP than in usual circumstances .

Finally, don't discount the 3% that the Socialist Workers Party loon is polling. That could be as much as a deciding factor as Nader's 2.6% was in the 2000 Bush vs. Gore election. Turner has pretty much solidified support on the right but Weprin is bleeding support to Chris Hoeppner. There are going to alot of hard core Dems in that district who always turn out to support socialism. Hopefully some of the disgruntled Dems can be talked into supporting Hoeppner. It could make the difference.

[AuH2ORepublican]

“Every person reading this article and commenting should find at least $5 to give to Turner.
http://www.bobturnerforcongress.com/Home.aspx";

That’s a good point—even those of us far away from NYC can help Turner cross the finish line. I sent in a credit-card donation earlier today, and I encourage those who can to do the same.

[ari-freedom]

“Just looked it up: estimated Jewish population is 20% of total in the district (fourth highest nationally). Could the Jewish vote in protest against O’s anti-Israel bias be a deciding factor in Turner’s favor?”

Nobody is talking about this in public but the gay marriage vote is going to be a big factor.

[ari-freedom]

“the district is a very liberal community in NYC....I know of no one who lives there...nor do I know of anyone who knows anyone who lives there.....”

I live there. This is a community where people don’t believe in watching TV but they listen to Rush and Hannity on the radio every day.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Indeed, I think when people say the district hasn't voted for a Republican Congressman since 1922, they're referring to the bulk of the territory now in NY-9, not the district number itself (if we simply went by that, I think "New York's 9th District" last had a Republican Congressman in the late 30s, but that district was quite different from the one currently labeled NY-9)."

Going exclusively by numbers, the "9th" also hasn't elected a Republican since 1920 when Andrew Petersen beat freshman Democrat incumbent David O'Connell (this district was also a Brooklyn one). The last remnants of that district would eventually become the 8th by the 1980s when James Scheuer held it and it was mercilessly chopped up to the point that Scheuer had nowhere to run in '92 (I believe a chunk of it was used to create Nydia Velázquez's new 12th to accommodate the VRA for Hispanics).

"I think the even bigger PR trump card is to point how this district used to be held by Schumer AND Geraldine Ferraro."

Minor correction. This was held by Elizabeth Holtzman (Schumer's predecessor). Ferraro's seat is now Joseph Crowley's 7th. That district has not elected a Republican since 1946 when it was the 6th.

[ari-freedom]

“Weiner won with 93% of the vote in 2008, I can’t quite figure it out”

That’s because nobody ran against him! No GOP candidate even tried to run until 2010

[ken5050]

SI..ain’t NYC..it’s a seperate world..

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Every state is going to be in play in 2012.

[BillyBoy]

But according to the congressional record, Geraldine Ferraro represented the “9th” District in the early 1980s. Apparently much of what was that district became the 7th district in the 90s. But certainly there must be a few parts of the old 9th in the current 9th. So the GOP could boost of representing neighborhoods once represented by Ferraro.

[BlackElk]

In 1980 or maybe 1984, Ronaldus Maximus came within 27,000 votes of carrying New York City and this district was one of the reasons. No GOP POTUS Candidate had come closer since Coolidge actually carried New York City in 1924. The district being contested is the home of the late Lubavitcher Rebbe Menachem Schneerson who had endorsed Reagan. One of his Assembly Districts (normally Democrat) cast more than 90% of its vote for Reagan after the Rebbe posed for photos with Reagan on the steps of the Rebbe's brownstone home. The Rebbe presided over the funeral of Jewish Defense League Founder Rabbi Meyer Kahane after he was assassinated by a black radical. The long term (nearly three decades and counting) Lubavitcher NY State Assemblyman Dov Hikind (nominally a Democrat but about as liberal as you or me) has endorsed the Republican Turner in Tuesday's special election.

The election can certainly be stolen by the usual Demonrat tactics but the district may be ripe to fall Republican this time. The Lubavitchers are amazingly conservative and family oriented hard core religious believers. The Rebbe died in about 1993 in extreme old age (for complicated religious reasons, he has no single rabbi as his successor) but he has left a rock solid legacy after a remarkable life's work.

Finally, I do not believe that Geraldine Ferraro ever represented this district. Hers was the so-called "Archie Bunker" district in Queens previously represented for about 40 years (est.) by a verrrrry conservative Democrat named James Delaney (an old Tammany Sachem with a cumulative liberal voting record no higher than about 10%) and subsequently to Ferraro by several more liberal Irish men who rose from the City Council. The district that is up on Tuesday was represented by Emmanuel Celler from 1922 to 1972 (as noted by fieldmarshalldj), then by Elizabeth Holtzman, then by UpChuck Schumer, then by Weiner. There may have been very minor overlap at some point between one redistricting and another but not much. LeBoutlier had a district further east mostly in Nassau County outside the city and I think he was defeated by the woman (her name escapes `me) whose husband, a commuter, was shot to death by a nutcase on the Long Island Railroad train. She is still in office.

The impact of taking this special election would be similar to the impact of taking a Chicago white ethnic congressional district from the machine.

[justiceseeker93]

Thanks for your perspectives, BillyBoy.

I'd disagree, though, with your calling the current NY-9 Geraldine Ferraro's district, because it has little or perhaps even no overlap geographically with her 9th District back then. (I don't have the maps at my disposal now so I can't say for sure.)

Ferraro's district in the 70s and 80s was northwest Queens. Demographically at the time it was predominantly white, ethnic, Catholic, middle and working class, with a larger percentage of homeowners than NYC as a whole. It was sometimes referred to as "Archie Bunker's district." It would seem as if Ferraro's politics were considerably to the left of her constituents. I believe Ferraro was in Congress for (only) four terms, and resigned when she ran for VP with Mondale in 1984 or shortly thereafter.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Let me correct a point of mine. The district James Scheuer represented from 1975-83 was different from 1983-93 (Scheuer was used to moving around). A good chunk of the district he represented from 1975-83 was given to the 6th in 1982 (then represented by Joseph Addabbo, now Gregory Meeks’ district). Ultimately, you’d have to do a neighborhood by neighborhood look to assess where the lines have changed over the years.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Unfortunately, Delaney was told by the ‘70s that he was going too far to the right and he drastically moved leftward (although had a schizo record during that period overall). He got as high as an 83% rating from the ACU in 1971 but dropped to 13%(!) in 1977, leaving his last year with a centrist 41% (unheard of for virtually all Dems these days).

[BillyBoy]

>> The impact of taking this special election would be similar to the impact of taking a Chicago white ethnic congressional district from the machine. <<

Ala in IL-5... Dan Rostencowski's loss to Michael Patrick Flanagan in '94? Perhaps.

>> Ultimately, you’d have to do a neighborhood by neighborhood look to assess where the lines have changed over the years. <<

Eh, you might end up with something like only 5% of the 1980's 9th District in the current 9th District. Though it's still be technically correct to say it's part of Ferraro's old constituency. Looking at Crowley's current district, it's not much of an "Archie Bunker neighborhood" anymore -- the 7th is only 45% white -- even if the bulk of the district is Ferraro's old constituents.

Ferrarro, Holtzman, either way it's a district formerly held by an popular liberal feminist RAT. No wonder the RATs are so upset at the poll numbers here.

[jjotto]

The district has a population of 650,000+, of which less than 170,000 are Jewish. Maybe 40% of those Jews are orthodox, and over half of those would vote Republican.

I believe the majority of the district is Catholic. There is a high population of Asians and Hispanics.

Obama took ‘only’ 55% of the vote in CD9 in 2008.

[FreeReign]

The district has a population of 650,000+, of which less than 170,000 are Jewish. Maybe 40% of those Jews are orthodox, and over half of those would vote Republican.

Looking at the map, I don't think a large percentage of NY's CD 9 Jewish population is Orthodox. Easterm Pakway and Borough Park are NYC's biggest Orthodox neighborhoods and they don't appear to be part of CD 9.

[fieldmarshaldj]

OK, I think I may have unravelled something here. Justice is partly right on his claim about the current 9th, however...

Let me take you back to the 1918 elections. Following my Congressional Atlas, the lines had been rejiggered. Republican Reuben Haskell had been an incumbent in the then-10th, which was moved from near-central Brooklyn to slightly northwards (seemingly in the region of Bed-Stuy). Haskell resigned in 1919 and GOP-Progressive Dr. Lester Volk won the special election. The lines remained exactly the same from 1919 until the 1944 elections, a very compact irregular rectangle shape entirely within Brooklyn (obviously).

Emanuel Celler beat Dr. Volk in 1922 under those lines and was largely unthreatened for the next 2+ decades. In 1944, NY did a big redistricting rejigger (partly to give Blacks a seat in Harlem, which required redrawing quite a bit). Celler’s district was augmented considerably, moved slightly southward and enlarged, extending down to Jamaica Bay and Manhattan Beach. It was renumbered the 15th (the old 10th was divided between the 7th, 10th, 11th and 15th — all Dem seats).

In 1952, Celler’s district was modified again, largely holding on to SE Brooklyn, but also placing the entirety of Rockaway, Queens into his newly-numbered 11th. At this point, the old 10th was now within the 8th and the-then current 10th (the latter of which was represented by Democrat Edna Kelly).

In 1962, the districts were also drastically reconfigured again. Celler stuck with the 10th, but the lines partly returned to its pre-1944 boundaries (the northern part at least) but appeared to extend from Williamsburg(?) to Canarsie(?) at Jamaica Bay, although he still retained the entirety of Rockaway, Queens. The remainder of SE Brooklyn was moved to the 13th and (oddly) the 16th, which was attached to Staten Island (despite being blatantly non-contiguous), all of which, again, were Dem seats.

In 1968, the lines were redrawn again. Celler remained in the 10th, but the 10th was moved back southward more to its 1950s lines (the SE chunk of Brooklyn & Rockaway,Q.) and reclaimed most of the 16th that was removed to SW Brooklyn. The “old” part of the Volk-Celler 10th became the 12th, newly created to elect Shirley Chisholm that year.

To make matters even more confusing, the lines were redrawn again in 1970, and while Celler again remained with the 10th, it was just located entirely within Brooklyn (removed was all of Rockaway, et al) centered on Flatbush-East Flatbush. I was able to refer to my first edition of Barone’s Almanac covering the 1970 elections for more details of the district (and again, he referenced that “this district” hadn’t elected a Republican since 1920, referring, though not by name, to Dr. Volk).

For 1972 when the district was reconfigured, it became the 16th (the seat for which Celler lost the Dem primary to Liz Holtzman), and it was still basically central B’lyn (Flatbush). Again, the “old 10th” of the time was still mostly within Shirley Chisholm’s 12th.

In 1982 (with Schumer, who succeeded Holtzman in 1980), it became the 10th again, but the northeastern part of the district became the new 12th (Major Owens won this) and again, the “old 10th” was partially within the 12th and Chisholm’s successor, Ed Towns, in the 11th. This was again exclusively within Brooklyn.

For 1992, the district was greatly enlarged and augmented, extending as far north as Prospect Park, down to Brighton Beach, back into Queens (Rockaway) again around the entirety of Jamaica Bay, and most dramatically extending into Central Queens (for the first time in the modern era).

For 2002, the portion of Brooklyn shrank and it extended much further into central Queens, as it remains today.

When all of this is taken into consideration, you have to look at it like this... The Brooklyn part has effectively remained Democrat since the 1920 elections. However, slivers of it have elected a Republican more recently (such as Francis Dorn in the ‘50s who held a district that contained part of the current 9th). The Queens part, which is (aside from Rockaway) relatively new to this district, have also elected a Republican in a sliver (probably the last being Seymour Halpern in 1970 who had part of eastern Queens).

But... and here is the big part... where exactly is the old 10th that sparked the discussion ? Where is the district today that elected Dr. Volk and Manny Celler at the earliest part of his career ? Well, it appears that most, if not all of that ancestral seat is no longer within the district we’ve been discussing (where Justiceseeker is correct) and that it appears to largely fall within today’s current 10th-11th-12th districts. It is probably a Black district now. Indeed, I looked up Volk’s last residence at
1111 Ocean Avenue, which currently places him within Yvette Clark’s 11th district. Although in the end, it appears that, too, may have fallen outside of the district he represented from 1919-23. It looks as though Ed Towns has the bulk of the old 10th... which is still in, yup, the 10th. And hence, still has and will likely remain Democrat for the forseeable future (since 1922).