PPP: Turner poised for big upset (NY-9 Special Election)

PPP ^ | 9-11-11 | Public Policy Polling

[tcrlaf]

Republican Bob Turner is poised to pull a huge upset in the race to replace Anthony Weiner as the Congressman from New York's 9th Congressional District. He leads Democrat David Weprin 47-41 with Socialist Workers candidate Christopher Hoeppner at 4% and 7% of voters remaining undecided.

Turner's winning in a heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of crossover support. He's ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party. And he's winning 29% of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60% with voters of his own party, while losing just 10% of Republican partisans.

If Turner wins on Tuesday it will be largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district. Obama won 55% there in 2008 but now has a staggeringly bad 31% approval rating, with 56% of voters disapproving of him.

It's a given that Republicans don't like him but more shocking are his 16% approval rating with independents and the fact that he's below 50% even with Democrats at 46% approving and 38% disapproving. Obama trails Mitt Romney 46-42 in a hypothetical match up in the district and leads Rick Perry only 44-43.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I read that Weprin has been campaigning heavily for the NY-09’s Chinese voters; he worked hard for endorsements from Chinese leaders in Flushing, which falls outside the district (it’s in Ackerman’s NY-05) but who Weprin hopes will be influential among NY-05 Chinese.

But if Turner gets 55% of the Jewish vote today, Weprin won’t win irrespective of how big Chinese turnout ends up being.

[rmlew]

Never understood why Chinese would vote Democrat. I understand the basic rule that the the less assimilated a group, the more Democrat they are. I also know that Taiwanese might hold a grudge for US support of the KMT in Taiwan. Still, I never understand why those escaping communism would ever vote socialist or why those with such reverence for tradition and ancestors would support the left.