Posted on 09/15/2011 4:57:12 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Suppose for the moment that the 2012 election is just a few months away, and President Obama still has a fighting chance at reelection.
Unemployment is creeping downward, though still not far from 9 percent. The economy is still growing, barely. And Mr. Obama has managed to nudge his job approval ratings up near 47 percent.
Will it matter whom the Republican Party nominates? In a word, yes.
“Who the nominee is will be very, very important,” says Karlyn Bowman, an expert on polling at the American Enterprise Institute.
Democrats keep insisting that the presidential race will be a choice, not just a referendum on the incumbent. And the Republican nominee, no matter who it is, will not be without flaws. As Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) put it at a Monitor-hosted breakfast Thursday, Obama is “not running against the Almighty, he’s running against the alternative.”
Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, frames Obama’s prospects this way: “He’s eminently beatable, and Republicans smell this. But in electoral politics, it’s always compared to whom.”
As of now, the GOP race seems to have boiled down to a choice between Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. That, of course, could change, especially if a major new prospect enters the race. But for the sake of argument, let’s say either Governor Perry or Mr. Romney will get the nod.
Polls show that GOP voters believe Perry is electable, but polls of general election voters show Romney faring better than Perry against Obama. The Real Clear Politics average gives Obama a four-point lead over Perry but just a one-point lead over Romney.
(Excerpt) Read more at csmonitor.com ...
As per the Public Policy Polling (PPP) Poll:
Among independent voters, Romney has the clear advantage. In the latest survey, Perry’s favorability with independents is just 23 percent (with 51 percent seeing him unfavorably). Romney is seen favorably by 44 percent of independents, and unfavorably by 39 percent.
Well, far be it from me to disagree with the Christian Science Monitor, but I don’t think it matters a whit as long as we nominate someone who is clean and articulate. After all, that’s what the dems did, according to Bite Me, and he won.
Oh, dear. Now I have to go report myself to AttackWatch. . . . AGAIN!-
PPP (D) picks independents that are liberal, so they can skew the results. A PP “independent” probably has never voted Republican.
Really now!
To repeat for 100th time..I would vote for Bugs Bunny before I would let Obama have another term! But so called independents need a clear distinction between Leftist Obama and a Conservative Republican...Not a RINO DEM light(McLame!)
I’m all for Perry, except for his inexplicable desire to spread his love and hugs to illegal Mexicans.
We need to get Republicans to vote for him, not just “independents,” who are an unreliable group that the GOP is way too fond of courting. And Romney is going to lose the GOP vote just like McCain, who was also supposed to appeal to “independents” (because he wasn’t “too terribly GOP”).
Of course he’s not running against the Almighty! He IS the Almighty! (In the minds of libs).
That guy is going to have to be reported to #attackwatch.
If Romney couldn’t beat McCain or Huckabee for the GOP slot in 2008, there is no good reason why anyone should think Willard could beat Obama in 2012. Besides, conservatives know that Romney is a phony and fraud, a two-faced, unprincipled lout!
If we don't have the guts to nominate someone *with* guts, like Sarah or Mr. Cain, we deserve another 4 years of the current POTUS.
just my .02, but give me someone who stand for something or just give me whatever political whore will give me the most bread and circuses as we slide off the ledge.
I’m writing in a real conservative...won’t ever again vote for another big government politician, neither Perry or Romney will get in office because of myself or any of my family.
What if...
The economy is blown off the front page by some other event?
Like a huge major war in the Middle East, or..
Don't care, for a conservative Romney is not, big government Romney is, Liberal Romney is.
Ron Paul would get my vote before another cheap big government liberal pretending to be a conservative like Romney OR Huntsman!
Between Romney and Perry, Romney doesn't hold a conservative candle to Perry.
Romney will pull the kind of vote Hubert Humphrey did. If the Republicans back him, Obama’s back. The only chance to take Obama out is to not back someone who’s already been beaten in his effort. Perry’s our best shot unless Palin jumps in. Obama can’t beat Palin on any day of the week. She’s shown backbone. The Democrats and the media are more scared of her than they are of Perry. A Perry-Palin or Palin-Perry ticket beats Obama like a Royal Straight Flush beats a full house!
I think what it boils down to is which candidate is in a better position to beat Obama in the midwest battleground states and Pennsylvania which may be a tossup this time around. This is an electoral college game not popular vote. And it is quite possible that Perry might garner more popular votes than a Romney because of overwhelming majorities in deep red states in the South and Southwest but Romney might be in a better position to pick up more electoral college votes because he might have more appeal in purple and battleground states than Perry.Either can win in the battleground states but I think Romney has a better chance there.I am not crazy about either candidate because they are not conservative enough for me but that is the way I see it politically.
Ho humm. The dems will cross lines and vote for romney in the primaries. The dems don’t get to pick both candidates, fortunately
If he is nominated, there is a 100% chance he faces a legitimate third party candidate from the right in the general election. That means Barack wins reelection with around 45% of the vote.
Even if Romney somehow pulls it off, it means we have a moderate / liberal Republican in office who is unlikely to solve the country's issues and will damage the party's brand even further.
I am not a fan of Perry's immigration policy, but he is solid most everywhere else (in my view). The main reason he trails worse than Romney right now is his relative lack of name recognition, and the fact that the left and the right have made outlandish claim after outlandish claim against him in the past couple of weeks.
As long as he weathers this storm and emerges as a viable candidate, he will beat Obama soundly, and he will move the country to the right in a lot of very important ways.
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