Posted on 09/23/2011 10:07:53 AM PDT by Evil Slayer
A huge, dead satellite tumbling to Earth is falling slower than expected, and may now plummet down somewhere over the United States tonight or early Saturday, despite forecasts that it would miss North America entirely, NASA officials now say.
The 6 1/2-ton Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) was expected to fall to Earth sometime this afternoon (Sept. 23), but changes in the school bus-size satellite's motion may push it to early Saturday, according to NASA's latest observations of the spacecraft.
"The satellite's orientation or configuration apparently has changed, and that is now slowing its descent," NASA officials wrote in a morning status update today. "There is a low probability any debris that survives re-entry will land in the United States, but the possibility cannot be discounted because of this changing rate of descent."
NASA expects about 26 large pieces of the UARS spacecraft to survive re-entry through Earth's atmosphere and reach the planet's surface. The biggest piece should weigh about 300 pounds. The spacecraft is the largest NASA satellite to fall from space uncontrolled since 1979.
(Excerpt) Read more at space.com ...
Nuff said.
That would send the “bus” closer to our island outposts. I guessed Africa but it seems by that account to be closer to areas we can control.
To me it is very complex. I have never ever tried to figure an out of control rock from HEO sped by solar activity to LEO and eventually to stratosphere and slowed by it’s own unknown weight. NASA did a good job of making sure it didn’t hit me on the head. :^)
Saw a tweet UARS, if still in orbit, ought to be visible from Australia in the next few minutes.
Haha...forecasting the landing location is extremely complex; the methods they use are far enough beyond my understanding that I don't even know most of the words involved.
But figuring the odds of a person being hit, given that the landing location was essentially randomly chosen, is much simpler: Figure a person takes up one square meter of space. Multiply that by the total population of the planet and you get the total surface area covered by people. Divide that number by the total surface area of the Earth (or of the portion of the Earth within the orbit's coverage area) and you get the odds that any one piece will hit a person. Multiply those odds by the number of pieces falling and you have your odds.
Thanks. It's interesting that while there are people claiming to be eyewitnesses to the debris on ground, the speculation has continued here:
UARS_Reentry UARS Reentry
In the unlikely event that #UARS hasn't already re-entered, element data indicates it would not survive this current pass over Australia.
That’s one way to see it. If the debris field came down over a metro area, thats another way.
Same guy I’m following, the hash threads are too chaotic.
Check this new one out from the Alberta Astronomy group. They're the ones who had labeled the so-called confirmed Alberta sightings as unverified.
In this latest tweet they take a more humorous approach. I think they deserve a lot of respect for being so forthcoming when they could have easily fallen into a keyboard cowboy routine: "It fell here in Alberta! We saw it first! Um.......... We DID see it!1111 I know more than you-ooooo. Ha ha!"
AstroCalgary AstronomyCalgary @ @JohnCornegge
It's St Paul Alberta that has the UFO landing pad! That's where space debris should land!
Good point. Thanks!
UARS_Reentry UARS Reentry
RT @NASA: We can now confirm that #UARS is down! Debris fell to Earth between 03:23 GMT and 05:09 GMT 24 Sep 2011...
6 minutes ago
Good point. Jupiter is visible.
Cloud cover in Hawaii may block celestial views but you're still in paradise from where I sit. Tonight I was watching another Hawaii Tourism spot and just dreaming, someday, lol.
Video of satellite debris falling over Okotoks, Alberta Canada.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OfWgu5jk5g
I don’t see anything but stars.
What am I missing?
This goes on for 6 minutes.
I can’t comprehend how it would be visible in one place for 6 minutes.
It looks like moving debris to me. You can see straggling pieces towards the end of the video.
afrispace ASItweets
by UARS_Reentry
Previous #UARS labelled as hoax (fyi youtube.com/watch?v=2OfWgu…). Cancel. The search is still on. @UARS_Reentry
Both are great.
Unfortunately that video you linked was not filmed in Canada and does not belong to the thief who ripped it off.
The so-called proof of UARs debris falling in Alberta Canada is actually a stolen video.
It was someone living in Oklahoma USA who had video-taped it, and not the person you linked.
The video was definitely not filmed anywhere in Canada, not in Alberta, Canada and there is absolute proof that that video is definitely not "satellite debris falling over Okotoks, Alberta Canada."
If the thieves who ripped it off had listened to the entire stolen video before claiming it as their own and uploading it to YouTube, they would have heard the actual person who made the video stating that they were recording the flashes of light in the sky near Oklahoma City.
That statement is around the 3:47 mark. Too bad the video thieves missed that part of the audio recording.
There is also the following which is posted on the video thieves' YouTube profile page:
cpdavngr cpdavngr (2 minutes ago)
This person stole the UARS video from Fragmentus08. The video is from Oaklahoma City at 9:30 PM 9/23/2011, USA, NOT Canada. Look up Fragmentus08 's channel and you'll find the original
STOP STEALING VIDEOS!
Thieves who ripped off the video:
http://www.youtube.com/user/INTNLTHUG#
Actual video creator:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6wW2ChL_-E&feature=channel_video_title
Unfortunately that video you linked was not filmed in Canada and does not belong to the thief who ripped it off.
The so-called proof of UARs debris falling in Alberta Canada is actually a stolen video.
It was someone living in Oklahoma USA who had video-taped it, and not the person you linked.
The video was definitely not filmed anywhere in Canada, not in Alberta, Canada and there is absolute proof that that video is definitely not "satellite debris falling over Okotoks, Alberta Canada."
If the thieves who ripped it off had listened to the entire stolen video before claiming it as their own and uploading it to YouTube, they would have heard the actual person who made the video stating that they were recording the flashes of light in the sky near Oklahoma City.
That statement is around the 3:47 mark. Too bad the video thieves missed that part of the audio recording.
There is also the following which is posted on the video thieves' YouTube profile page:
cpdavngr cpdavngr (2 minutes ago)
This person stole the UARS video from Fragmentus08. The video is from Oaklahoma City at 9:30 PM 9/23/2011, USA, NOT Canada. Look up Fragmentus08 's channel and you'll find the original
STOP STEALING VIDEOS!
Thieves who ripped off the video:
http://www.youtube.com/user/INTNLTHUG#
Actual video creator:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6wW2ChL_-E&feature=channel_video_title
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