Posted on 10/04/2011 7:56:52 PM PDT by freespirited
If Mitt Romney can’t start locking up the GOP nomination now, he may never be able to.
The former Massachusetts governor’s charmed path toward the presidential nomination was made even smoother Tuesday when New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie opted out of a campaign and recommended that voters choose the candidate with the “best chance” of beating President Barack Obama.
No white knight from Trenton, N.J., or anywhere else is riding into the race as the establishment’s savior. Romney’s would-be chief rival for the nomination, Rick Perry, is dropping in the polls amid doubts from conservatives and pragmatists. And the one candidate on the rise, Herman Cain, is running for president in between stops to hawk a new book.
“In tax policy, this would be known as the unlocking effect,” former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie said about the effect of Christie’s decision. “A lot of folks who’ve been waiting to see other candidates get in the race will begin moving to declared candidates.”
Crowed Romney adviser Ron Kaufman: “This is the end of ‘Waiting for Superman.’”
But for all the same reasons Christie’s decision ends the uncertainty that hovered over Romney, it also launches a frantic period for his campaign. He’s now under intense pressure to consolidate the Republican establishment behind his candidacy and build up the coveted and self-reinforcing sense of inevitability his candidacy has lacked to date.
And there were some signs in the hours after Christie’s decision that the movement to Romney had begun.
Incoming Florida House Speaker Will Weatherford and state Rep. Chris Dorworth, who had been for Tim Pawlenty, are going to get behind Romney when he visits Tallahassee on Wednesday, according to GOP sources.
Some members of the coy New York money crowd indicated that they will now back Romney.
Romney talked Tuesday afternoon with Ken Langone, the Home Depot co-founder who had been the leading cheerleader for a Christie candidacy, and two senior Romney officials say he’s come on board. And veteran GOP fundraiser Georgette Mosbacher told Capital New York that she is also getting on board.
New York grocery magnate John Catsimatidis is also coming out for Romney.
“He’s a middle-of-the-road guy, and even though it doesn’t make the conservatives 100 percent happy, he’s capable of making them 75 percent happy, and he’s capable of getting 51 percent against President Obama — which is a lot better than making the conservatives happy and getting 47 percent of the vote,” Catsimatidis said.
“I see a lot of New Yorkers in the financial community headed that way,” Catsimatidis continued, noting that Jamie Dimon — the JPMorgan Chase chief who has been an Obama admirer — recently turned up at a Romney fundraiser.
In Washington and Boston, Romney backers were both making and taking phone calls all afternoon following Christie’s decision, and the candidate himself was dialing some of the most coveted money men.
One Romney official said that before 4 p.m., he had gotten calls from six senators, four members of Congress, former Cabinet secretaries and governors.
“Five calls a day is a lot — well, quadruple that,” the official said of the incoming calls. “The time for choosing is about here — that’s the basic message.”
Added another plugged-in Romney backer: “The D.C.-New York corridor was waiting for today. Over the next two weeks, you’ll see people finding their home.”
On Thursday, Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) will host a sit-down with other congressional Romney supporters to plot how to nail down more endorsements.
Even before Christie got out, Perry’s debate performances had prompted some Republicans to conclude that the race was within Romney’s grip.
Top lobbyists who had been on the sidelines, for example, began moving to Mitt. Sam Geduldig, an early K Street Pawlenty backer, said he cut a check maxing out to Romney last week — before the end-of-quarter filing deadline.
Christie’s withdrawal also brings a measure of clarity to Romney’s path through some of the unpredictable early states.
“For Mitt Romney, if it’s not already, New Hampshire is going to be his to lose,” said Rep. Charlie Bass (R-N.H.). “Without Chris Christie, Rick Perry was [Romney’s] last big threat, and I don’t think his candidacy is going to mature anymore than it has.”
Romney’s team sees this moment as a time for choosing and is making no secret of its pitch: Romney is inevitable, so get on board now.
“People are going to start to realize that either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama is going to be the next president of the United States,” said chief Romney strategist Stuart Stevens.
“You’re starting to clarify the nomination process,” said Woody Johnson, the New York Jets owner and Romney backer who helped call on-the-fence donors Tuesday. Predicting a “burgeoning of support,” Johnson added: “We’ll pick up some fundraisers — I think this is good from that standpoint.”
But veteran Republicans don’t believe that Perry, who has been taking fire from conservatives for his immigration stance and facing growing doubts about his general election prospects from pragmatists, will go away quietly.
Sources familiar with the Texas governor’s fundraising said Tuesday that he would raise over $15 million for the third quarter and indicated he had not been soliciting general election funds. That would mean that, in just a half-quarter of raising money, Perry will near Romney’s initial $18 million take earlier this year.
“I could see Perry-Romney stretching out over several months,” Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a veteran political strategist, said, noting that both have strong political and financial bases.
And Cole added that, given the head-snapping ups and downs of the race, Perry could turn things around.
“The debates aren’t over yet — if he had a great debate performance, that could change things rapidly,” said the congressman.
A longtime party insider said he was hearing from donors who now are indicating that they are cutting checks to Romney but likened it to the feeling in the party in 2008 when it became clear that John McCain was going to capture the nomination.
“It’s not enthusiasm; it’s settling,” the insider said, predicting that Perry will still “go the long haul.”
Working in Perry’s favor is that even with Christie’s decision, some leading lights in the party still just can’t yet accept Romney.
“I still haven’t decided yet,” former RNC finance chair and Florida mega-donor Al Hoffman said after Christie’s decision when asked if he’d made up his mind. “I think the field is as muddled as ever, and I want to see how it shakes out.”
And both Cole, a former National Republican Congressional Committee chairman, and Bass said that while some GOP members of Congress may move following the Christie news, they didn’t envision a dam burst for Romney.
Further, the departure of a candidate who would have appealed to many establishment and business types also means Romney has one less excuse to stay out of Iowa. Pressure will now increase for the former Massachusetts governor to try to deliver a knockout blow there.
“If Romney were able to take Iowa, that would be really, really tough on Perry,” said a senior GOP strategist.
What has some in the party uneasy is that even as Perry has swooned, Romney has not been the beneficiary. Polls indicate that the former Massachusetts governor has retaken the lead in both national surveys and some key states, but it’s Cain, the former Godfather’s Pizza CEO, who has taken up some of Perry’s support.
Romney’s aides point to Cain’s rise as a mark of Perry’s weakness — “Cain is a better version of what Rick Perry was trying to sell than Rick Perry is,” said Stevens. But his strength also means Romney has failed to close the deal. Few Republican insiders think that Cain, who has never held elected office and is now promoting a book far from Iowa, is a viable candidate.
Still, the emerging consensus from party pros after Christie’s formal exit is that this is Romney’s best chance yet to emerge from the pack.
“Many of the folks who urged Christie to run came from the finance world and Wall Street, and although Romney was not their first choice, he may well be their final choice,” said Matt Schlapp, who was a political director for former President George W. Bush.
Added Cole: “If I were Mitt Romney, I’d probably be popping champagne corks right now.”
He should stick to positives about his own records.
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There aren’t any. Romney is a liberal, lying, scumbag...and I’m being polite.
The inside-the-beltway crew.
Who are these “establishment Republicans” that we keep hearing about?
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The older country club republicans who are fiscally conservative (at least used to be) yet socially liberal (pro abortion, pro gun control and he like). They throw money at the moderate candidates and counter grass roots efforts to elect conservatives.
"give us Romney and you will lose."
I find it amazing how people dismiss Herman Cain as unserious because he is "hawking a new book".
For crying out loud, the title of the book is "My Journey to the White House"!
Being interviewed in mass media appearances about his biography and plans is EXACTLY the perfect place for Cain to be in for the next couple of weeks. Far better than to be using this time driving across Iowa "shaking babies and kissing hands" as the saying goes at diners and coffee shops.
With his name in the news because of his surge in the polls, more people will be curious as to who he is, and there is Herman on shows like The View and Fox & Friends telling his life story and slipping in a plug for the 999 plan for good measure.
What he needs right now is to raise his exposure and name recognition, and that is what he is doing. Once he has established that national name recognition and familiarity, then would be the time to move into local retail politicking.
Just great. So it’s now between the “New York money men” like Kenneth Langone backing Romney and the Texas illegal alien slave laborers Bob Perry and Charles Butt backing Romney? And - OF COURSE - Herman Cain is “not viable”. What a joke. John McCain was “not viable” in 2008, and everyone on this forum knew it, even during the vomit inducing “hero” tribute at the Convention. This party truly is the ‘party of stupid’.
Woody should be less concerned with Romney and more concerned with perhaps sending the totally lost Mark Sanchez back to USC for a year of remedial training.
Ha, Christie would be crispy toast once he ventured outside his NE bubble. He is not even remotely conservative in any sense of the word. His anti gun stance alone would have doomed him.
“I don’t think that’s necessarily something to get too worked up about.”
not over passing a bill with abortion mandates!
“No, he couldn’t have: you’re forgetting that Christie has major Second Amendment problems. He supported semi-auto bans (one of his campaign ads ridiculed an opponent for opposing them) and would not be acceptable to the TEA party rank and file (due to their silly, misguided reverence for the Constitution.) “
yeah because he fears what would happen to Trenton and Newark if they all had easy access to guns. :/
Jonathan Martin, Maggie Haberman & Ben Smith writing in Politico as if they’re concerned citizens and non-partisan. Thanks freespirited.
Sarah do you hear this? I hope so,the end is near,I sure Hope you make the Right decision.HELP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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