Posted on 10/13/2011 6:57:52 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New claims for unemployment benefits edged down last week, according to a government report on Thursday that pointed to a modest improvement in the labor market at the start of the fourth quarter.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 404,000, the Labor Department said, from an upwardly revised 405,000 the prior week.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 405,000 from the previously reported 401,000.
Nonfarm employment increased 103,000 in September after gaining 57,000 the prior month, the department reported last week. While payrolls last month were lifted by the return of 45,000 Verizon Communications workers, key measures of labor market health showed some improvement.
Initial claims stayed close to the 400,000 mark usually associated with some improvement in the jobs market for a third straight week.
More signs of improvement in the labor market could further diminish the chances of a new recession, but much of the economy's fortunes now depend on how Europe handles its debt crisis.
A Labor Department official said there was nothing unusual in the state-level data, but noted that claims tended to show large increases at the start of a quarter.
The model used by the department to smooth out seasonal variations had expected a large increase in claims last week and since the figure came in close to expectations, there was little change in the seasonally adjusted level.
Since Monday was a federal holiday, four states including California and Virginia, gave estimates. But the Labor Department official said these tended to be accurate and he did not anticipate major revisions to the data next week.
The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, fell 7,000 to 408,000.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearmarkets.com ...
Say what????
Things are bad but things are good?
It goes like this: revise last weeks number UP by 3000. Then say this week is “improved” over last week by 1000. Declare a “Modest Improvement”. This means we can have a “Modest Improvement” every week as joblessness steadily worsens.
The change between 405,000 and 404,000 is meaningless. Such differences are nothing but statistical noise.
Wait until the Frank/Dodd bill hits Wall Street, last nights news said 32,000 will loose their jobs...just in time for the 2012 election.
90,000 Military Troops, 3,000 of them CPO’s are in 0 budget chopping measures. None will have vested retirement, and we are now thanks to 0 fighting 3 wars.
This stuff borders on Orwellian style double-speak. Good is bad, black is white, the biggest wrong is thought crime...
Wait until Patty Murray’s Super Friends Super Committee crashes and burns, and all of those automatic cuts to the Defense Department kick in. The fastest way to cut DOD’s budget is to RIF troops. Kick people out of the service to cut the military budget, but give them all 99 weeks of paid Government unemployment benefits.
Hold fast...
Not to mention that they'll probably be revised upwards next month by much more. Quietly, of course.
Every week, the fedss report jobless claims. Every week, they revise the previous week’s data upward. Why anybody would have any faith in their numbers is beyond me. Throwing a dart at numbers on a board would be slightly more accurate.
“Wait until Patty Murray’s Super Friends Super Committee crashes and burns, and all of those automatic cuts to the Defense Department kick in.”
I think if we we would be better off if we replaced everyone in the White house, senate and the House of Reps with chimps.
Well after 2 summers of recovery this pre-revised 1000 less bad than pre-expected is just the kind of news the markets are looking for! /Happy_Days_Are_Here_Again
I have been tracking these Thursday number since Jan 1, 2011.
EVERY single week gets a revision the following week. It has always been an upward revision.
EVERY single week gets a revision the following week. It has always been an upward revision.
Yes, I've noticed the same phenomena. This is proof that the numbers are being manipulated. The odds of the data being understated every week for 40 consecutive weeks without being manipulated are 1,100,000,000,000:1.
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