Leaving Las Vegas

Continuing the practice of handicapping the candidates after the debates, herewith a belated reaction to the Las Vegas debate.

The dominant impression of the affair is that the pole positions of the candidates did not much change as a result of the debate. That means that either Romney or Cain, probably Cain, was and continues to be the leader. Romney should be judged the leader by virtue of his deep pockets which assure him a ride through several of the preliminary primary states. His hovering around the 25% level can be read as an inability to break through or as a sign of stability. I regard it as a ceiling which he must break through, and soon, or begin to taper off.

I believe that Romney has held on to his position because he has convinced the moderate wing of the party that he alone can win. So he survives on his alleged electability. If a conservative competitor can demonstrate credible electability, Romney will encounter serious erosion of support.

Cain should be regarded as the leader because he has recently moved ahead in many polls including Iowa and South Carolina. In other words, he is the man with the momentum. The question is whether he has pockets deep enough to make the run when he gets to places like Florida where money is absolutely critical.

The debate started predictably with the board attacking Cain for his 9-9-9 tax reform plan. And the attacks came along the lines I had predicted with the notable exception of Newt Gingrich, whose comments were balanced but, nevertheless, probing.

Eventually the action shifted to a wrestling match (almost literally) between Romney and Perry. I believe that this diversion was just that. My judgment is that Perry is very unlikely to secure the nomination because of his consistently bad performance in all the debates in which he has appeared. His deep pockets can keep them in the race but I do not believe his cause can be saved.

If the debate was significant it was because the field of potential candidates with a realistic chance has been reduced to three. It is not a Romney versus Perry contest but a Romney versus Cain contest-or is it? Another way to say it, to indulge a banality, is to call it a contest between Romney and not-Romney. I think we are down to only two claimants for the "not-Romney" position and the second claimant is clearly not Governor Perry but Newt Gingrich.

To save fellow Freepers the need to state the obvious, let me do so first. Gingrich's chances have much improved but are still remote. He has virtually no money in the bank, although he claims he has raised more in July than he had for the whole of the previous campaign. He carries an immense amount of baggage which is anathema to many social conservatives who are not afraid to give voice to their dismay on these threads. He is dumpy in physical appearance and overweight and he can be imperious and offputting.

Yet despite these handicaps, compounded by a horrendous beginning on Meet the Press, Gingrich has improved his pole position with every debate despite being abandoned by his campaign staff in the wake of his Meet the Press appearance. He has done so largely on the strength of his singular appearances in the debates. His strategy has been clever. He has chosen to avoid attacking his fellows on the stage with him and even in this last debate he was very careful in his language in discussing 9-9-9. This no doubt was to overcome the unfortunate image he created on Meet the Press. He has only once participated in contretemps and that with Mitt Romney over his position on single-payer requirement in healthcare. His strategy has been to attack Obama and to attack the press and in doing so his preaching to the converted not surprisingly resonated.

So far he has not been the object of serious attacks in the debates and so he has managed to prosper under the radar. Now that he is being seen as number two in the contest to be not-Romney that stealthy immunity undoubtedly will change. It will change because of his improved standing and it will change because he will have to engage Cain on the issues.

One can expect Gingrich to do very well even against Herman Cain who is the image of affability and enjoys a Teflon demeanor. Gingrich's has got to this place in the debates not just because he has avoided controversy but affirmatively by his ability,like Herman Cain, to go to the heart of the issue with vivid language. His wit has exceeded even Herman Cain's. No one disputes his grasp of the issues or his facility with them.

I will go out on a limb and suggest that the polls in the forthcoming days will yield Gingrich at least a modest bump as a result of his performance in the Las Vegas debate.

Yet with all these personal assets, Gingrich probably cannot win this. But Herman Cain can contrive to lose it. If one looks at the leading participants in the Las Vegas debate, none prospered much by the exposure. Perry again performed appallingly. Romney was effective as always but he was drawn down into the mud and he made a gaffe concerning his hiring of an illegal indirectly through a lawn service company. I think the criticism against him on that score is misplaced, however, it is not my opinion but the general perception which matters. Santorum drew a little blood with his attack on Romney's credibility concerning healthcare. Romney probably did not advance his candidacy and might even have lost a little ground.

Much the same can be said of Cain's performance. His apples and oranges defense was not clear and not persuasive and betrayed a certain inability to drive home the nuts and bolts of his plan when he had to do so. I confess to a very subjective feeling about Cain that he might be superficial and could be exposed as such. This flies in the face of his biography which reveals him to be a man of high intelligence, literally a rocket scientist, but it is a subjective feeling that I cannot shake. The reader can discount my assessment as something that is purely personal and not at all objective.

Merely by virtue of being the object of the attack by the remainder of the panel, Herman Cain inevitably appeared to be beleaguered at least to some as yet unmeasurable degree. It is in this context that his failure conclusively to drive home his defense of 9-9-9 begins to betray a potential weakness. He has recently committed two gaffes which required him to disavow his own words. He had to climb down off his own electrified fence and he had to retreat from the massive gaffe of allowing that he would exchange prisoners held in Guantánamo to repatriate Americans held by Al Qaeda. Interestingly, Newt Gingrich was able to criticize this without being personal.

These gaffes and many others lead me to suspect that Herman Cain is vulnerable. He can only get away so many times with saying that he misunderstood the question. If he stumbles, and only if he stumbles, the conservative world might very well turn to Gingrich.

I understand we have one more month to wait until the fun of the next debate to reveal to us a few more guideposts toward the nomination. Meanwhile, we will have to content ourselves with forthcoming poll results to understand what "really" happened in Las Vegas.

As always, I appreciate your thoughtful analysis.

For my fellow FRiends who are disenchanted with thhe GOP field, my question to you is this:

If you don’t like who is running now, then who will you support?

None of them are the IDEAL candidate and last I checked, Jesus of Nazareth will not be on the ballot.

So ssince our task is to elect veto-proof majorities to bothe Houses and to evict Obama.......who will you support?

(I am not saying choose now....but NOT voting is a vote for Obama )

Appears you and I watched the same debate.

Cain portrayed several of his previous “backtracks” as being quoted out of context, and provided enough of the additional quote to clear things up to my satisfaction. His seeming inability to remember what question he was asked about negotiating with terrorists did cause me quite a stir. I would say that the question is not if he stumbles, but that he has stumbled and now can he ensure that it does not happen again.

The Gingrich candidacy I’m not so sure about. Early on, I thought he was brilliant, experienced, an excellent debater (especially in contrast to most of the rest of the field) and had no chance. I thought he was probably in it to help ensure we got the best electable conservative through the process. Now I am starting to wonder if he wasn’t, or perhaps isn’t, in it in case none of our guys can make it far enough.

I’m still hoping Cain turns out to be the right man, and I see a place for Gingrich in a Cain administration. I’d have no problems voting for Gingrich, but to me his knowledge of how the game is played makes me concerned that he would believe that is how the game has to be played. When the only tool you have is a hammer, all problems look like a thumb.

I’m still very concerned about Romney. I think his support pretty much only goes up from here. He’s saying the right things, and he has the right demeanor, to look like the clear choice to the majority of the party.

I do think he provided a very valuable quote the other night. His answer about the illegals was reasonable — a contractor was using illegals, he put and end to it, and when it happened again he fired the contractor. I can see myself in that position. But he never should have mentioned the “I can’t have that because I’m running for office” [not a direct quote] part.

“......the conservative world might very well turn to Gingrich.”

I already have.

Cain is a nice man, he’s intelligent and I think he is worthy of a position within the administration.

It’s going to take the smartest man in the room to turn this country around.... Newt is clearly that man.

I wish I knew. I’m afraid the msm will pick one, like they did the last time. Our Republican elected don’t seem too interested in any of the candidates, at least not at this time, as the election is a year and a month off in the future. Of course I’m from TX and have met Gov Perry when he was with the Ag department and know he wanted everything grown, raised, harvested, made in TX to be sold here and out of the state. He wanted as many Texans who wanted to work for themselves, own a business, or work for someone, the opportunity to do so.

Gator, yes, we need a smart fellow to lead this country. One who is wise, a sense of humor and a very strong will to put America back on track. We need someone who is not afraid to step forward and remove from office those obama and his chosen ones have made civil servants. There are a lot in the justice department who have no use for America and her “Idea of Freedom and Self Sufficiency”. Whoever this person is must also have the ability to appoint people who are trustworthy of keeping America, America and not Amerika. I think Cain would be great in Commerce. I think Romney would be a good retiree.

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