Posted on 10/23/2011 2:35:52 PM PDT by drewh
The Iowa caucuses are now just 72 days away. Once Iowans vote on Jan. 3, the 2012 campaign for the Republican presidential nomination ceases to be about debates and gaffes and spin, and begins to be about actual results.
This week’s uproar over Herman Cain’s CNN interview with Piers Morgan will likely be a distant and irrelevant memory by Jan. 3. Despite Cain’s rhetorical difficulty in consistently articulating a pro-life position, his bona fides on the issue have long been established, as demonstrated in 2006 when he led a $1 million effort to encourage black voters to vote pro-life.
What should be more troubling for Cain’s supporters are persistent concerns about the strength of his campaign’s “ground game” in Iowa. Organizing for the Iowa caucuses is a time-consuming, labor-intensive effort and 10 weeks is a very short time in terms of building effective operations in each of Iowa’s 99 counties. That’s why many people were startled a week ago when ABC News showed Cain’s Iowa headquarters nearly empty:
Duane Lester of All American Blogger interviewed Cain’s Iowa communications director Lisa Lockwood this weekend at the Iowa Faith & Freedom Forum and asked her about that video:
Lockwood’s explanation — that many of Cain’s volunteers in Iowa are working from home, rather than from the campaign office in Urbandale — may help reassure Cain’s supporters, as do the latest poll numbers from Iowa. But the poll numbers also point toward a looming danger for the Cain campaign:
When you look at the RCP average, you see that every Iowa poll for the past two weeks (beginning with the Oct. 7-10 PPP poll) has shown Cain in first place and Perry in single digits. It is therefore scarcely surprising … that the prime directive of the Perry campaign is now “Destroy Herman Cain.”
Allahpundit yesterday explained what Perry’s situation means going forward:
[W]hile Perry can skip New Hampshire, I think he’s stuck having to compete in Iowa. Sooner or later he’ll have to suck it up and start attacking Cain in earnest.
And this is very much in line with what I wrote Friday:
That the Perry campaign has become a purely negative organization — a machine whose prime directive is the destruction of other non-Romney candidates, leaving Perry as the sole hope for the Anybody But Romney movement — is an inevitable consequence of how the campaign began with the goal of becoming the overnight front-runner. When you begin with that kind of plan, with your campaign organized around the idea of raking in front-runner money, you inevitably encounter a problem when, for example, a poll shows your candidate in sixth place in Iowa. … [T]he Perry campaign’s relentlessly negative message now – the turn to the Dark Side, as it were — is a predictable reaction to the failure of their original plan to become the overnight front-runner and Only Legitimate Alternative to Romney. Those who bought into the original plan, which fell completely apart within six weeks of Perry’s Aug. 13 announcement … are now trapped into an all-or-nothing effort to destroy Herman Cain.
That lengthy contemplation of the strategic logic of the Perry campaign was prompted by an item from Alexander Burns in Politico, showing how Cain has previously given ambiguous answers, based on a Human Events article in 2003, when Cain was beginning his campaign for Senate in Georgia. Having spent enough time on the campaign beat to know how these things happen, I observed: “$17 million buys a lot of opposition research, as well as a team of people paid to disseminate it. Excuse me for suspecting that Politico columnists don’t spend their spare hours reading eight-year-old back issues of Human Events, IYKWIMAITYD.”
Of course, there’s no telling who dug up that 2003 article. Mitt Romney’s also got an ace team of opp-research guys on their staff and, when I mentioned the Politico column in a phone conversation Thursday with Cain campaign communications director J.D. Gordon, he pointed out that Team Obama isn’t exactly shabby when it comes to planting oppo-research hits in the press. So it would be unfair to jump to the conclusion that Team Perry was responsible for that item, however …
The poll numbers in Iowa and the strategic logic of the Perry campaign point inexorably to the necessity of Team Perry “going negative” on Herman Cain — and doing so PDQ, while Perry can still get the maximum advantage of his fund-raising advantage.
Perry finished the third quarter with more than $15 million cash on hand, whereas Cain had about $1.5 million cash on hand. But the Cain campaign is now getting a huge influx of contributions and it has been suggested they may be raking in $200,000 a day online now, which would translate to more than $5 million by the end of October. That would be “Romney-esque money,” as one GOP consultant put it, and if they could keep up that pace, Team Cain might be approaching financial parity with Perry and Romney by Thanksgiving. So if the Perry campaign wants to strike hard on Cain with TV and radio attack ads, it behooves them to do it before the Cain campaign can accumulate the money and organizational resources to fight fire with fire.
And if Team Perry does mount an attack-ad campaign against Cain, they will almost certainly do so in Iowa. The combination of poll numbers and the campaign calendar explains this:
Iowa caucuses ………………… Tuesday, Jan. 3 New Hampshire primary …. Tuesday, Jan. 10 South Carolina primary …… Saturday, Jan. 21 Florida primary ……………… Tuesday, Jan. 31 Nevada caucuses ……………. Saturday, Feb. 4
Notice that there are 10 days separating New Hampshire (Romney’s must-win state) and South Carolina (Perry’s must-win state). If we assume that Mitt wins his must-win, Perry would be under extreme pressure in South Carolina, and the pressure would be even worse if Perry fares poorly in Iowa. And if recent poll numbers are any indication, Perry could fare very poorly indeed in the Hawkeye State:
Public Policy Polling (Oct. 7-10) ………….. Perry 9% (4th place) Insider Advantage (Oct. 16) ……………….. Perry 6% (6th place) University of Iowa (Oct. 12-19) …………… Perry 6% (5th place) Rasmussen (Oct. 19) …………………………. Perry 7% (6th place)
Can the Perry campaign afford for their candidate to finish fourth, fifth or sixth in Iowa? No way, José. They don’t necessarily have to win it, but if Perry finishes as far back as fourth in Iowa on Jan. 3, it’s unlikely he will do much better in New Hampshire on Jan. 10. By the time the South Carolina primary rolls around on Jan. 21, the media will have been doing “death watch” reports on Perry campaign for more than two weeks. If Perry then underperforms in “must-win” South Carolina, there will be another ten days of “death watch” coverage before the crucial Florida primary on Jan. 31. Romney is reputedly strong in Nevada, so by the time votes are counted there on Feb. 4, Perry could be batting .200 in the first five nominating events, and perhaps even 0-for-5 if he were somehow to lose his “must-win” state.
The strategic situation clearly indicates the necessity for Team Perry to leverage their current cash-on-hand advantage by mounting an attack ad campaign against Cain in Iowa, in hope of restoring Perry’s status as the most viable choice for the Anybody But Romney voters, who are a majority in the GOP primary electorate.
Perry knows he can’t win, and he also knows that it is his own record that took him down.
Now that he is toast, he is following the GOP Elitist prime directive: stop the “outsider” from breaking the back of globalist socialist tyranny.
LOL!
“As much as I loathe the idea, everybody not named Romney is better off beating each other up for the remaining 75% of the voters.”
Well, I don’t totally agree. I think there is some value for Perry in going after Romney, cause it does a couple things:
1. It contrasts him from pretty much everyone else in the race and shows true conservatives that he recognizes the danger of nominating an ultra-liberal like Romney. This could win him some conservative cred.
2. It helps keep Romney’s support in the 25% range. Sure, those core 25% who support Romney are mostly either Mormons, RINOS, or Indies that intend to vote in our primary, but with Fox News and so much of the conservative intelligencia in the tank for Romney, it’s helpful to remind true conservative voters exactly why Romney should be a non-starter with them. This can hopefully keep Mitt’s numbers low enough that even two conservative alternatives can emerge and not have to worry about splitting the votes and allowing that RINO phony to slither in.
Having said all that, I don’t think that should be Perry (or anyone else’s) main focus. That of course should be going after Obama and contrasting his positions with Obama. I think with Perry’s flat tax & energy exploration/jobs plan and Cain’s 9/9/9 or 9/0/9 plan, there is some good substance that can be debated. If both candidates focus on the merits of these plans and how they will bring our economy back, I think the polling results will take care of themselves. But mixed in with all of this, I think there is definitely political value in going after Romney.
Rick Perry is FINISHED.
It is too early for Cain to go after Romney. First, what has to happen is that Cain has to solidify his position as the only conservative opponent of Romney.
None of the conservative branch of GOP voters are likely to break for Romney.
Conclusion: Bachmann & Santorum need to drop out being so far behind. Then Cain needs to peel away most of Perry’s support. When Cain & Romney are the only 2 left, Romney has no chance to win.
Has Cain gone after any Republicans in this race? Maybe, like Newt, he's focused on Obama & not scorching Republican earth. Maybe others can learn from Herman Cain on how to promote your cause without tearing down your team.
I have to say that it's starting to get disconcerting to see concervatives lowering themselves to call other conservatives names. Like your post. Is that how Gov Perry inspires people?
Thank you so much. Let’s see, Michelle Malkin, OPINION writer. I live in Texas and am very familiar with his position on illegals. I have met him twice over the years and find him to be sincere and very conservative. We’re not hurting here, so who am I going to believe, you or my own eyes? He is not soft on illegals, like Jan Brewer he asks and asks for federal help and what he gets is woefully inadequate. We don’t like the fact that they are here, but we’re stuck with them and the Federal government forces us to pay to educate them through high school. We can gladly can send them to you and see if you can do better.
The TTC never happened. Still waiting for names and dates regarding “globalist RINO masters” and specifics of what they told him to do and what he did. I find it interesting you fault him for earning money at an age when most of us hit our peak earning years. What exactly is wrong with earning money? I’m not carrying his water, but it is getting old seeing people fling vague accusations at Perry, Cain, Bachmann, Palin, etc. just because that isn’t their favorite candidate.
Is it so hard to understand? Do they think it is just coincidence that Cain and Gingrich are going up in the polls while the bickering juveniles aren't?
I was reading through Cain’s commentaries around the 2008 elections and he slammed the liberals for the horrible way they treated Gov. Palin.
[W]hile Perry can skip New Hampshire, I think he’s stuck having to compete in Iowa. Sooner or later he’ll have to suck it up and start attacking Cain in earnest.
Perry had best be real careful about this.
“BTW, what is Cain doing to go after Romney? NOTHING!!!”
I’ve already explained this to you, but I’ll try again; Cain is WINNING. Perry is under the outhouse treading....water. Perry NEEDS to attck to try and recover.
What possible reason would Cain have for attacking ANYONE that he is already clearly BEATING?
The Texas Enterprise Fund’s ventures stink to high heaven. If you can find no evidence of crony capitalism being enabled through this device, so be it. Several companies are involved, as well as his supporters. His support for block grants to states is an enabler of such shenannigans of political graft and payback.
The fact the TTC failed is in SPITE of his efforts. Who else was backing this thing? If you refuse to call the TTC and his mushy immigration policies globalism, that’s fine. I guess all that’s left is playing politics or stupidity.
Exactly how do you explain his increase in net worth over his term as governor? It was not from his salary in office! I certainly have no problem with people getting rich as long as it is through private and personal effort, not through insider information and crony capitalism with public funds. I guess you approve of Harry Reid’s land deals as well.
Then, there is the Merck/Guardasil fiasco, which again was initiated wholly through his efforts, and stopped by other people.
He knows how it’s done. Everything about him reminds me of how Albert Gore Sr. operated. His favorite way of taking a bribe was at the cattle auction of his Prize Herefords, which fetched multiples of normal prices, yet were no better stock than his neighbors. No hard evidence but the smell.
Then, there’s the whining. “You’re just picking on me because of my faith”, and even getting his wife in on the act.
Cain isn’t perfect either. The fact a national sales tax is politically unpopular doesn’t negate the need for having one. Whores, smugglers and mafiosi should get some skin in the game by some means. Folk whining about how big total sales taxes would be with their State’s taxes should take that up at their own State level. Yes, he served on the Federal Reserve for a while, and has mis-spoke about a few things (doesn’t speak politician), but he has been targeted with more “GOTCHA” questions than the rest of the field put together, and has yet to whine about a single thing. He also made his money while NOT SERVING IN POLITICAL OFFICE!
I’m sorry that most of my reasons for not supporting Perry are negative reasons and suspicions. Negatives and suspicions are also why I don’t support Romney, Gingrich, Bachman, Huntsman, Santorum, and Paul. (Well, with some of them, there are repeated moral failures, bad policy records, flip flops, and ignorance of history, all negatives.)
Vote for Perry. Hell, I don’t care. I hope after the primaries you’ll vote for Cain for President.
Wow....this is 4 or 5 of us! There was a time not long ago when you didn’t dare say anything positive about Newt here. Maybe someone should start a Newt ping list!
Hank
It certainly won't gain him any Cain voters. Cain's voters would go to Newt. jmo
Who came to texas and bailed perry out in the last election, hint it wasn’t Cain. http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/09/21/romney_broke_law_to_help_perry.html
REALLY? HOW ABOUT THIS?
The poll numbers in Iowa and the strategic logic of the Perry campaign point inexorably to the necessity of Team Perry “going negative” on Herman Cain — and doing so PDQ, while Perry can still get the maximum advantage of his fund-raising advantage.
Link to Perry's Strike Force Plan Against Cain
The campaign for Texas Republican Rick Perry is rallying a “strike force” of volunteers to work in Iowa right before the Iowa GOP caucuses, Politico reports.
Politico’s Mike Allen this morning shared a copy of the Perry campaign email, with the subject line: “Volunteer Need for Strike Force effort”:
“We are actively recruiting volunteers for the Iowa Strike Force effort. We are looking for about 1200 volunteers to be onsite the week of December 27 – January 4 or at the very least onsite no later than January 3.
If someone is asking you how to get involved in the on the ground operations in Iowa, you can have them e-mail strikeforce@rickperry.org for more information.
Please pass along to anyone who has expressed a desire to help. Thanks so much!”
Agreed on all points, but if all 5 more conservative candidates remain in the race past first 6 primaries, Romney has a shot at nomination. It will be Cain, Bachmann, Perry, Santorum, Newt (I am calling him conservative in spite of man made global warming couch scene with Pelosi) dividing the conservative voters, Paul will get his die-hard bunch and Romney picks up the rest.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.