So what is the success rate of Intrade this far out? What are the chances that a desperate RINO with very deep pockets isn't flooding bets on himself in order to give Mittbots a talking point when all other indicators show the candidate a loser?
I couldn’t answer that with any confidence but I would guess not very accurate.
But those are pretty long odds. I mean if it was 50%rommney and 25% cain I would say “that means nothing”. But cain has 6.5%! Even if its off by 100% that’s still a pretty strong statement for cain losing the nomination.
I’m not a romney fan btw. Last election I was sick seeing the establishment republicans get the nomination and then drag us along by giving the Veep spot to a true conservative. Why can’t it be the other way around? why can’t a true conservative get the nomination and then drag the establishment republicans along by handing the veep spot to an establishment republican? that’s what the reagan-bush ticket was.