‘Jordan, Hamas on road to reconciliation’

By AMMAN - At times unlikely allies, Jordan and Hamas are on the road to reconciliation, observers and officials say.

Recent communications between the two sides have sparked a flurry of speculation that was only fuelled on Tuesday when Prime Minister Awn Khasawneh declared that the decision to expel Hamas leaders from Amman a decade ago was a “political and constitutional mistake”.

Despite the rapid developments, analysts say only time will tell whether the Arab Spring-inspired thaw in relations represents a seasonal political shift or the beginning of a regional realignment with ramifications in Damascus, Ramallah and beyond.

The exchange of warm words and social visits is expected to culminate in the upcoming official visit of Hamas politburo chief Khaled Mishaal to Jordan following Eid Al Adha - set to be the first high-level meeting between Jordanian and Hamas officials since the group’s Amman office was shut down in 1999.

The past month has marked a dramatic departure from the last decade, when members of the resistance movement were viewed in Amman as personas non grata, according to Samih Al Maaytah, political observer and Al Rai chief editor.

“This is a positive development and a return to normal relations between the government and Hamas,” he said, adding that a host of regional and domestic developments have transformed Amman’s view of Hamas from a diplomatic inconvenience to welcome guests.

The timing of the sudden overtures - while the movement’s host government in Syria is facing a popular uprising - is far from a coincidence, observers say.

As Jordan and Qatar worked closely in responding to the Syrian and Libyan crises, Qatari decision makers made a condition that Jordan thaws the deep freeze with Hamas as part of Doha’s efforts to secure the resistance movement a new home, according to observers.

The move also comes as part of regional and international efforts to pull Hamas away from the Iran-Syria-Hizbollah axis and stem Tehran’s intrusion into the Palestinian cause, according to Ad Dustour columnist Maher Abu Teir.

“There is much interest in Jordan and elsewhere to have Hamas enter the moderate camp, and many see the situation in Syria as their chance,” he said.

The sudden change of heart in Amman may also stem from a change of philosophy in Washington, observers note.

From supporting Islamist-leaning revolutionaries in Libya to watching the Ennahda Party pull 40 per cent of seats in the Tunisian constituent assembly, decision makers in the West have gone from fearing political Islamists to actively supporting them as peaceful players in the region’s drive for democracy.

Concluding that political Islamists are a more tolerant alternative to Al Qaeda or salafist jihadists, the West may be encouraging Amman to actively engage Hamas in an attempt to empower more moderate forces within the movement, according to political analyst Hassan Barari.

“America is initiating a dialogue with Islamists in the Middle East - why doesn’t Jordan do the same?” he remarked.

The sudden warming of ties may also come as a direct response to actions in Ramallah, analysts say.

Fearing that the Palestinian Authority’s UN statehood bid may leave the issue of the right of return unresolved, Jordan may be sending a message to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas that statehood cannot - and should not - be achieved unilaterally.

“Jordan is not happy with the Palestinian Authority and its recent moves put pressure on Abbas and reminded him that there is an alternative in Palestine,” Abu Teir said.

Minister of State for Media Affairs and Communications and Government Spokesperson Rakan Majali insisted that Jordan maintains its support of the Palestinian Authority as it pursues “better ties” with the Islamist group.

“We have not changed our stance, but we reserve the right to extend our support to all Palestinian groups,” Majali said.

While not natural allies, a host of mutual benefits can be reaped from a budding relationship between Amman and Gaza, observers say.

For Hamas, Jordan is a natural first choice for a host country - with its proximity to the Palestinian territories and the fact that several senior leaders are Jordanian nationals, the Kingdom lends itself as a “second home” for the resistance group.

“Jordan is physically, culturally and socially the closest Hamas can get to Palestine,” Maaytah said.

Ties with the Islamist group will bring Amman in close orbit to decision makers in both Gaza and Ramallah, giving Jordan greater diplomatic leverage and a larger role in the peace process, according to Barari.

“Hamas is quite a strong card to play in the region,” noted Mohammad Abu Rumman, researcher at the University of Jordan’s Centre for Strategic Studies.

Hamas would also provide Jordan with greater leverage against Israel, safeguarding it against any potential attempts to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at the expense of Jordan, particularly the so-called alternative homeland project.

For Jordan, the recent advances in ties also have benefits on the domestic front: Overtures to Hamas are a low-risk move that plays to the street and allows authorities to offer a goodwill gesture to the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan without making any political concessions, Abu Teir said.

Despite being united by current mutual interests, analysts stressed that both sides are divided by foreign policies that are fundamentally apart.

From its advocacy for armed resistance to Israel to its rejection of Western influence in the region, Hamas is more naturally aligned to Iran, Hizbollah and Syria rather than moderate Arab states such as Jordan, observers say.

The fact that senior leaders of Hamas advocate violence against Israel, a stark violation of the Kingdom’s peace treaty with Tel Aviv, presents another stumbling block to closer ties, Abu Rumman added.

“You can’t have a peace treaty with one side and host a group that is at war with it,” he noted.

While the government is optimistically extending its hand to Hamas, observers warn other state institutions are likely to be much more wary of closer ties between the Kingdom and the movement.

“The government is moving faster to closer relations while security services likely want to slow things down,” Abu Rumman said.

With the Cabinet focusing on the diplomatic advantages, security institutions have other considerations - namely the role of the Islamist movement within Jordan and the security concerns that come with the presence of a resistance group on Jordanian soil, he pointed out.

As both sides weigh the pros and cons of a closer alliance, analysts say something more powerful than any peace treaty or foreign power may prevent stronger ties from ever taking root - pride.

“For Jordan to accept Hamas back it would be tantamount to saying that ‘we made a mistake’ - and decision makers in Jordan are not known for saying sorry,” Barari said.

Despite the invitations and warm words, analysts say it is still premature to predict which direction the rekindled relations will head.

“The question still remains: What about the day after Mishaal’s visit?” Abu Rumman remarked.

Abu Teir, who spoke with Mishaal late last month, said senior leaders within the movement do not expect the recent détente to lead to a dramatic turnaround in relations.

“There is not going to be any political office in Amman and there is not going to be a return of Hamas leaders to Jordan, and Hamas realises this,” he said.

“I don’t believe we are going to see any dramatic developments in relations between the two sides - only the continuation of slight, slow changes.”

According to Majali, the Islamist group has not made any formal requests of the government to reopen its political office in Amman.

“There have been many discussions, but so far there has been no talk of a return of Hamas to Jordan,” he said.

Sources within Hamas declined to comment on whether the reopening of the group’s office in Amman will be on Mishaal’s agenda in Jordan, adding only that the group hopes the official visit will open greater channels of dialogue on “issues of mutual concern”.

Short of opening a political office, observers predict that Mishaal’s visit may be the first of a series of visits of Hamas leaders to Jordan, as officials allow the movement to use the Kingdom to receive diplomats and dignitaries as it searches for a new home.

Another potential scenario would have the movement shuttle between Amman and Doha, using the Kingdom as a platform for its policies while conducting most of its logistical activities in Qatar, according to Barari.

No matter where developments lead, officials and observers agree that authorities should take advantage of the thaw in ties before events may once again place both sides on opposite ends of regional divides.

“This is a chance for strong relations between both sides, and the government is looking forward to explore them,” Majali said.

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My first thought is that given the experience of his pop and grandpop, the King isn't going to be anxious to be the new Syria when it comes to hosting palestinian terrorists. But who knows.

If you would like an Western translation to this Middle East story, what this means is that the Palestinian Authority of North Jordan (Moab) is being overrun by the Hamas militants.

This means that the southern Jordan (Edom) region of the Hashmite King has lost control of the country. The Paestinian Authority represents Jordan's interests in the reigon. Hamas is an Iranian spinoff that is a loose cannon amongst the Arab League. Jordan's political rift between the American supported “Economic Zone” of the port south Jordan and the cross Aman Valley Arabic radicals has widened to the point that the King no longer has a dog in that race. The King of Jordan began to loose control of north Jordan about 6 years ago. The USA built all new palaces for him and his family to relocate to the south at that time.

This is the rebirth of Edom and Moab from the ruins of Jordan. A story the MSM kinda missed... Because it just does not fit the western story of how things work in the Middle East. And -gasp- it fits the Biblical perspective.

This is posted publicly to claim the control from the King. It is how Islam communicates. You have to understand the society to understand the implications of their “News”. NOTHING is printed without control by the ruling authority. For this to be printed, it means that Hamas IS the ruling Authority now. If blood does not run in the streets within a week, the King will have proven he does not control Moab anymore, he is too weak to break the challenge for control.

The very interesting side issue is that the Hashmite Kingdom of Saudi are now publicly being challenged by the Islamic Radicals taking over Egypt, Libya and the "Arab Spring" uprising. This as the US is drastically improving the Saudi Air force. The choice plum of the Middle East is not Jerusalem, its Mecca.

The Mid-East nuclear clock just ticked one minute closer today.

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