Posted on 11/07/2011 11:07:54 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Labor is poised for a big victory in Ohio Tuesday. PPP's final poll on Issue 2 finds 59% of voters plan to reject Senate Bill 5, with only 36% voting for approval.
What might be most remarkable about the 23 point margin in this poll is that it's exactly identical to what we found the first time we polled on this issue all the way back in March. Voters were furious then and that anger has continued all the way to November.
Democrats are almost unanimous in their opposition to SB 5, supporting repeal by an 86-10 margin. Meanwhile there's division in the Republican ranks- 30% are planning to vote down their Governor's signature proposal while only 66% are supportive of it. Independents split against it by a 54/39 spread as well.
If this margin holds on Tuesday night it will be a humiliating defeat for John Kasich. Kasich continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with only 33% of voters approving of him to 57% who disapprove. The only person we've found with worse numbers this year is Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie. If Ohio voters could do it over again they'd reelect Ted Strickland by a 55-37 margin over Kasich, and although they don't have an opportunity for a redo on the Gubernatorial election the likely results of the Senate Bill 5 referendum on Tuesday can be seen as a proxy for it.
The news isn't all bad for Ohio Republicans though. Issue 3, where a yes vote is being framed as a rejection of Barack Obama's health care plan, is leading for passage by a 49-35 margin. That represents a significant tightening from 3 weeks ago when PPP found the measure ahead by a 55-24 margin, but it might be difficult for the 'no' side to make up another 14 points in the final 36 hours before the polls open.
Our number suggest that voters may not really understand what Issue 3 is. For instance 18% of Republicans say they oppose it, and we never found anywhere close to 18% of Ohio Republicans supportive of the health care bill when we were polling on it last year. At the same time Democrats only oppose Issue 3 by a 51/29 margin, and we never found anywhere close to 29% of Democrats opposed to Obama's health care plan last year. That lack of understanding about what exactly Issue 3 is has 16% of voters still undecided so this could end up closer than the polling currently indicates.
Issue 1, which would make a bunch of changes to the judicial system in Ohio, is trailing for passage by a 48/27 margin but this is another one where voters don't really understand what it's about, with 25% still undecided. Unlike the other two issues this one isn't terribly polarizing along party lines- Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike are opposed to it.
One other note on the Issue 2 polling- PPP was criticized both by supporters of Issue 2 and by opponents after its last poll for not using the exact language on the ballot. We felt giving a synopsis of what Issue 2 was about rather than using the exact language was appropriate because of the confusion over what exactly a yes vote and a no vote on the issue meant. For this final poll we used the exact ballot language, and then on a question later in the survey asked again using the language from our earlier polls, which was 'Ohio will have a referendum on whether to approve or reject Senate Bill 5, which was passed earlier this year, and limits collective bargaining rights for public employees. If the election was today, would you vote to approve or reject Senate Bill 5?' Using that language we found 59% of voters for rejection, just like we found 59% for rejection using the exact ballot language. Given that we think even more now that it was reasonable for us not to use the exact ballot language on our earlier polls.
It’s not just scare tactics. Since FDR was reelected in 36 Americans have consistently rejected any hint of repealing New Deal programs or attitudes. If you asked those polled if they wanted welfare cut or food stamps or medicaid the results would be different. Middle class don’t have a problem with cutting those, but don’t touch their benefits. When you put those wanting to retain middle class entitlements with those wanting to keep poverty entitlements you have a majority vote. That’s just the way it is.
“Kasich’s best shot at re-passing these reforms and improving his popularity would be to start with the most popular provisions, and passing them, one at a time...Once Ohio sees the economy improving, his numbers will go up.”
It’s what he should have done in the first place. But, what’s done is done. So, taking the course of action you present, where is the problem? Why the gloom and doom? It suddenly becomes an insurmountable task?
Here's what Kasich should do. Number 1, state unequivocally that state taxes will not be raised. If the costs per employee are driven up by union demands, then personnel cuts will have to be made. The minute it is clear the issue is voted down, put out the word to all state agencies to plan for a 10% cut in personnel, and then hold a press conference and say that this is the result of defeating Issue 2. Likewise cut state aid to local governments by 10%. Make a similar case for this being the result of defeating Issue 2. Let the sheeple, the union thugs, and the 'Rats understand that elections have consequences. They voted for the cuts by defeating Issue 2. Let them live with it.
They're not my heroes when they put out false and misleading ads about Issue 2, and expect the taxpayers to fork over more money for their generous benefits. They're not concerned about the economic and financial burden that their demands put on the state.
And therein lies the problem. Even when such a leader does surface, he/she ends up losing their next election to someone who just reverses it all before it can really have an effect.
That’s even better!!!
Taxes won't go up. Jobs will be cut because the budget will not support what the public unions want. There are many local levy issues, as well. Watch them go down in flames and witness the schizophrenic nature of the voters in the state.
The Buckeye State is fast becoming the Poster Child for why Direct Democracy is a bad idea.
As i always say, we speak of the death of the mainstream media at our peril.
People get the government they deserve.
at a blog - maybe National Review - they said, “the Republican legislature decided to make the billfull of goodies instead of calen and simple.” It went on to say all the extra stuff maed it a vote killer for the public.
“the Republican legislature decided to make the billfull of goodies instead of calen and simple.”
Politics as usual. And the Ohio GOP has had it’s share of RINOs in it for the cash.
Nothing will change until these people, elected politicians, are afraid.
That freedom thing is just a bit too frightening for some people.
Remember, Ohio... by voting down SB 5, you’re opting for economy-killing deficits, followed by massive layoffs.
But you’ll make that big statement in support of your precious public-sector unions, won’t you?
That freedom thing is just a bit too frightening for some people.
Remember, Ohio... by voting down SB 5, you’re opting for economy-killing deficits, followed by massive layoffs.
But you’ll make that big statement in support of your precious public-sector unions, won’t you?
Just in time for Obama to offer a federal bailout package before next year's election.
Here the guy has tried to deliver what voters called for back in 2010, and they turn against him. No wonder so many good people don't want to run for public office, what with the psychotic nature of the American electorate. Live up to your campaign promises and it will cost you.
Why so suprised. Ohio is just another State full of folks who want something for nothing. I don’t care what they do as long as I don’t have to pay for it.
The airwaves have been bombarded here with Vote No On Issue 2 ads. They have trotted out firefighters, first responders, nurses, teachers, senior citizens, heck even John Glenn got in on it. They have used scare tactics, heart wrenching stories about firefighters saving children, teacher’s and nurses’s sob stories 24-7 for TWO SOLID MONTHS. How many policemen, firefighters and teachers could have been supported by the money that unions spent on all of these ads?
I and a lot of others I know are voting Yes, but I fear the sheeple have been moved by the unrelenting media assault.
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