Posted on 11/07/2011 11:07:54 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Labor is poised for a big victory in Ohio Tuesday. PPP's final poll on Issue 2 finds 59% of voters plan to reject Senate Bill 5, with only 36% voting for approval.
What might be most remarkable about the 23 point margin in this poll is that it's exactly identical to what we found the first time we polled on this issue all the way back in March. Voters were furious then and that anger has continued all the way to November.
Democrats are almost unanimous in their opposition to SB 5, supporting repeal by an 86-10 margin. Meanwhile there's division in the Republican ranks- 30% are planning to vote down their Governor's signature proposal while only 66% are supportive of it. Independents split against it by a 54/39 spread as well.
If this margin holds on Tuesday night it will be a humiliating defeat for John Kasich. Kasich continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with only 33% of voters approving of him to 57% who disapprove. The only person we've found with worse numbers this year is Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie. If Ohio voters could do it over again they'd reelect Ted Strickland by a 55-37 margin over Kasich, and although they don't have an opportunity for a redo on the Gubernatorial election the likely results of the Senate Bill 5 referendum on Tuesday can be seen as a proxy for it.
The news isn't all bad for Ohio Republicans though. Issue 3, where a yes vote is being framed as a rejection of Barack Obama's health care plan, is leading for passage by a 49-35 margin. That represents a significant tightening from 3 weeks ago when PPP found the measure ahead by a 55-24 margin, but it might be difficult for the 'no' side to make up another 14 points in the final 36 hours before the polls open.
Our number suggest that voters may not really understand what Issue 3 is. For instance 18% of Republicans say they oppose it, and we never found anywhere close to 18% of Ohio Republicans supportive of the health care bill when we were polling on it last year. At the same time Democrats only oppose Issue 3 by a 51/29 margin, and we never found anywhere close to 29% of Democrats opposed to Obama's health care plan last year. That lack of understanding about what exactly Issue 3 is has 16% of voters still undecided so this could end up closer than the polling currently indicates.
Issue 1, which would make a bunch of changes to the judicial system in Ohio, is trailing for passage by a 48/27 margin but this is another one where voters don't really understand what it's about, with 25% still undecided. Unlike the other two issues this one isn't terribly polarizing along party lines- Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike are opposed to it.
One other note on the Issue 2 polling- PPP was criticized both by supporters of Issue 2 and by opponents after its last poll for not using the exact language on the ballot. We felt giving a synopsis of what Issue 2 was about rather than using the exact language was appropriate because of the confusion over what exactly a yes vote and a no vote on the issue meant. For this final poll we used the exact ballot language, and then on a question later in the survey asked again using the language from our earlier polls, which was 'Ohio will have a referendum on whether to approve or reject Senate Bill 5, which was passed earlier this year, and limits collective bargaining rights for public employees. If the election was today, would you vote to approve or reject Senate Bill 5?' Using that language we found 59% of voters for rejection, just like we found 59% for rejection using the exact ballot language. Given that we think even more now that it was reasonable for us not to use the exact ballot language on our earlier polls.
This Ohioan is starting to look for the EXIT signs.
'Ohio will have a referendum on whether to approve or reject Senate Bill 5, which was passed earlier this year, and limits collective bargaining rights for public employees. If the election was today, would you vote to approve or reject Senate Bill 5?'
You are simply going to get a lot of people against 'limiting' collective bargaining rights because it sounds ominous when framed like that. Hopefully, there is enough awareness advertisements around Ohio, especially in conservative areas to get people to the polls and understand that this is a nominal change to the collective bargaining system.
OK. Give the unions all the goodies. Then raise Ohioians taxes to pay for it. Idiots.
If they vote it down than they can raise their taxes to support it....there will be no fed bailout. Stupidity is as stupidity does!!!
If Ohio voters are stupid enough to vote to pay government employees twice as much as they make in the private sector, plus financing their free health insurance and outrageously cushy retirement system, then let Ohio go broke.
Just don’t cone begging for help from voters in sane states who have much better sense than to believe that Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy will provide a bailout for profligate states.. We can see how the greedy government employees’ demands worked out in Greece.
Yup and the fools will whine when their taxes go up
The adds for repealing SB 5 are sickening. All of the teachers, nurses, police, fire fighters, etc... they are all “heroes”. Even John Glenn got into the mix with a TV add stating that voting YES on issue 2 is voting against the “heroes”.
I am offended. Apparently, going to work every day in the private sector, raising a family... that is not heroic.
You must be in a public sector union to be a hero.
Makes me want to projectile vomit!
Taxes should be part of the question....Do you want A) collective bargaining rights limited or B) Your taxes to increase to balance the budget.
No more “fair” taxes where a few percent pay more. Let’s really make taxes fair and make everyone pay them.
I always check the demographics. As usual, they lean Dem. Here are the numbers from PPP
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 41%
Republican...................................................... 35%
Independent/Other..........................................24%
I advise Kasich to push a slightly modified version of the bill in the next session. A few changes should make the bill more palatable for most voters. Let the labor cartels kick and scream more.
I find it to be sad how this is seen as an all or nothing. Am I missing something here?
Does Ohio have a Republican Governor? Both chambers of the state legislature are Republican majorities?
So, SB5 passes. Go back to the drawing board, and do it as Kasich should have done in the first place. A little at a time, bite size pieces that votes can understand easily and the effects will be harder to obfuscate.
Or we could just say we’re all gonna die, Ohio is Greece and be done with it?
That won’t help. Quinnipiac found the same results. It won’t pass. Simply too much money and scare tactics have been used by the unions.
I don't know what to make of this. I do think SB5 is viewed as an overreach, and probably should have been done one piece at a time. That said, I really cannot fathom why Kasich is so unpopular, so fast. Is it the addiction Ohioans have to their precious unions or what?
“So, SB5 passes.”
OK, I meant SB5 is voted down. Ooops.
Kasich’s best shot at re-passing these reforms and improving his popularity would be to start with the most popular provisions, and passing them, one at a time...Once Ohio sees the economy improving, his numbers will go up.
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