Victories and Defeats, Perceptions and Realities

Election day in November of 2011 reinforced the difference between perceptions and realities, victories and defeats. Ohio's SB-5 was repealed by a 61-39% margin (Issue 2), while Issue 3, Ohio's choice to opt-out of Obamacare by an even larger margin (65.6 to 34.4%) sent conflicting signals. Or did they?

First, it's important to remember that there are big differences between real victories and perceived victories. The debt-ceiling/budget showdown is now widely viewed, by both sides of the aisle, as a Republican "victory," even though conservatives hardly got anything of substance out of the deal. But there is no question it badly damaged Obama with his liberal-whacko base (good) and that some (probably not many) left him for good over that (even better). If you go back to George W. Bush's War on Terror, recent events involving the killing of Osama bin Ladin and the overthrow of Khaddafi, while attributed in some variations to Obama, were really results of Bush policies.

Throughout the War on Terror, I think it's safe to say that Bush was far more concerned about the realities of keeping America safe than he was about the PR game of perceptions. This led him to take a beating in the press, probably helped cost the Republicans the Senate in 2006, an enabled the Dems to pound him for seven years at the expense of the GOP and conservatives as a whole. Having met Bush briefly, I would conclude that in his mind if that was the tradeoff, he'd take American security for eight years over political victories or receiving credit.

So what about Ohio? I don't think the Issue 2 results are as bad as they seem. First, the state GOP did not do an effective PR job of selling this early. They allowed the Dems to set the terms of the debate and define it as an issue of keeping people safe from fires and crime and keeping teachers. Second---and this is critical for conservatives in all these unionized, sinking states to understand---this was a pyrrhic victory in the sense that the unions spent millions here having already spent more millions in Wisconsin on the (failed) recalls. It won't be good for Ohio residents in the short term, but in the strategic sense, this was a case of Ulysses Grant's comment of having one army "hold a leg while the other one skins."

The unions appear to me to be in the same shape as the Nazi army on the east front in 1944: rapidly running out of manpower and resources, and the defeat of SB5 will only cause the number of union workers to decline further as the cities and municipalities, now, are forced to do the dirty work.

There is a finite limit to union funds and energy to organize and whine and complain. On the strategic battlefield, they are 1-1 without even touching Michigan yet---and poorer by a boatload.

LS's strategy for OH? Pass the most popular part of SB5 again, immediately. Let's see if the union thugs can do it again. I don't think they can. Then pass another, then another. In the meantime Ohio now has a balanced budget, and that will only rebound to Kasich's favor over time.

The opt-out of Obamacare in Issue 3 is equally telling. This is a genuine victory and a perceived victory. No question the message this sent. Moreover, it is interesting that in the news now, the phrase is "Obamacare," associating a bad plan with a toxic politician.

You could see this in Virginia, where the GOP effectively gained control of the state senate for only the second time since Reconstruction. Politicians there stayed as far away from Zero as geography would allow.

Strategically, the perceived union win in OH will become meaningless, while the genuine coffer-busting attempts to stop Governor Walker in WI and SB5 in OH will prove setbacks from which the unions, long-term, won't recover. When combined with lost union jobs in OH, it's a war of attrition that we will eventually win. But the clear defeat of Obamacare won't need to wait for any future developments to show just how badly the Dems are screwed in the next election cycle.

The biggest mistake Kasich made was including the firefighter and the Police unions in SB5. Had it just been the teachers union, it would have stood . Every commercial sponsored by the union was about firefighters and rite-aid grannies. People retelling stories about being saved by a fire fighter or policeman. No mention at all of the teachers. It seems to have been overreach by our Governor.

61-39% margin (Issue 2), while Issue 3, Ohio's choice to opt-out of Obamacare by an even larger margin (65.6 to 34.4%)

I was surprsed by the huge crossover vote on those two issues. I was really expecting those to both go down because of all of the anti Issue 2 advertising. Ignoring the few who voted against both or those who voted on one of the issues but not the other, over 26% of the voters voted for issue 2 to repeal SB5, but still voted to make Obamacare unconstitutional in Ohio. Some of that may be an antiauthoritarian streak saying that the state government shouldn't tell local governments what contracts they can sign and the federales shouldn't force people into Obamacare, but other than that I really can't figure out why the difference. Maybe the anti Issue 2 advertising was just so powerful that many people really didn't study the issue but just voted "no" because otherwise firefighters would have to leave kittens in trees because of Governor Kasich.

Karl,

I'm convinced that we just absolutely lost the PR battle on Issue 2 (firemen and kittens in trees) and that there was also an intimidation factor (who wants a "Yes" sign in your yard if you're being robbed or your house is on fire).

So as an earlier poster said, I think we needed to split these up into three parts, fire, police, then teachers.

But my bigger point is that the unions do not have infinite money with ever-dwindling pools of members.

Good summary, Larry. Two points stand out, one economic, the other political strategy. On the latter, it is noted once again that we can't let our opponents get ahead of us in framing the debate and issues. We need to be as proactive as they are. We can't sit back for 10 or 15 weeks before the election and then hope to make up ground in the final week or two. Playing defense might win in football, but its a loser in politics.

On the economic side, reality has a way of coming back and b-slapping those who ignore it. So let the union thugs party hearty for now. They blew millions on this issue and in the end the only thing that will happen is more of them will get laid off as the government teat dries up. In my district alone, while the unions were celebrating, the voters were turning down yet another school levy, so, guess what, layoffs, like those the union thugs said defeating Issue 2 would avoid, are being planned. So now what are they going to do, go crying to their union? What good is their union to them when they are on the street? They can take their stolen office supplies and Obama picture and go home and file for yet more government assistance, this time unemployment compensation.

The labor unions actually inflicted themselves with a mortal wound that they cannot repair. I agree with your conclusion, the the perceived “union victory” last evening in Ohio is meaningless in the long run!!! And.....you are also correct in the conclusion that labor unions are exhausting massive funds on failed efforts!!! The significantly more important vote in Ohio was the massive defeat of Obamacare. No matter what the media rants and raves, POTUS Obama is going to lose Ohio next November. The smart money and brains in the Democrat Party are working feverishly behind the scenes to figure how they can dump Obama, for they know that if Obama runs, he will lose and take most of the Democrat Party with him!!! Over the last few months, Obama is both radioactive and poison for any significant Democrat running for office!!! That’s a fact!!! The other hidden movement which no one talks about in either party, is the “silently majority” of American Blacks that are not happy with the treatment of Herman Cain. it does not take a rocket scientist to figure that the attack on Mr. Cain comes right from the current occupant of the WH, none other then POTUS Obama and his sleaze masters. As time marches on, this fact will become more evident due to the public breakdown of Mr. Cain’s accusers. Obama cannot let Cain live politically. Cain running for POTUS with Marco Rubio, Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich as a running mate, attracts a good percentage of both Black and Hispanic voters. And that minority percentage allows Cain a landslide victory over both Obama and his Democrat Party. Cain must be politcally destroyed at all costs by the Obama ilk!!! Democrats, your time is getting short!!! Broom Obama now, or go down to defeat with him. Another fact, folks, OH, WV, MS, KY and VA will all go GOP next November, 2012!!!

When combined with lost union jobs in OH, it's a war of attrition that we will eventually win.

This is absolutely the fact that will knock the unions on their collective asses.

The local school boards, towns, townships, districts, will be faced with the reality, "There is no money and daddy sugar at the state house is broke".

They will be the ones that are going to cut jobs and then the wailing will begin.

Those dumb ass union fools, rejecting medicine that would have saved their jobs {with a small contribution by everyone, isn't that the union way?} instead now the younger workers will be laid off.

Tough to be stooooopid.

this was a pyrrhic victory in the sense that the unions spent millions here having already spent more millions in Wisconsin on the (failed) recalls.

Great post. I would amend this point somewhat though, and see if your conclusion still stands.

...this was a pyrrhic victory in the sense that the unions spent millions here of other people's money having already spent more millions of other people's money in Wisconsin on the (partially failed) recalls.

I believe you are correct that this is a war of attrition. But they are quietly stealing supplies for their army from taxpayers, conscripting more members, and taking hostages (schoolchildren and kittens in trees.)

These tactics need to be addressed lest we lose the attrition advantage.

The less money they have, the better. Our tax money is being wasted EVERYWHERE, not just here. The sad thing is that it is being used against us. Perhaps this year we should put our foot down and not pay the taxes. It has clearly become in-your-face taxation without representation (and we know how THAT turned out the last time). I am becoming concerned that the Tea Party has receeded, it is time to call them out again.

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