Posted on 11/13/2011 10:11:57 AM PST by blam
DAVID ROSENBERG: We Are In Year 4 Of A 7-10 Year Depression
Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism
Nov. 13, 2011, 6:56 AM
David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff joined Consuelo Mack on Wealth Track this weekend to discuss his outlook for the economy. Rosenberg isn’t just bearish. He say the US economy is in a modern day depression similar to what Japan has suffered from for the last 20 years. He bases this view on the idea that de-leveraging tends to coincide during a prolonged period of economic weakness that is not merely consistent with recession.
Rosenberg says we’re just 4 years into a depression that will likely last 7-10 years. He says the economy is likely to begin contracting again in 2012 and that the employment situation is going to deteriorate further. He calls the MF Global bankruptcy the Bear Stearns of 2011.
Contrary to common misconception, Rosenberg is not bearish on everything. After being a long-time US Treasury bull, Rosenberg is sounding a bit less bullish on government bears. He says the love affair is over. He now prefers corporates and income at a reasonable price.
(Click to the site to see a video by Rosenberg)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Knew that a year ago.
If he gets re-elected more like a 20-30 year depression.
Imagine if 47+ million people were not collecting food stamps, the unemployment checks and all of the other numerous Gubmint supported hand outs were not available as it was back in the 30's?
Then just think what would happen if it all suddenly stopped....
We're living in a house of cards, a facade if you will.
If Obama gets reelected, it is TEOTWAWKI.
TEOTWAWKI
Total Economic ......?? Thanks
if it all suddenly stopped, the economy would boom.
It will only be a 10 year one if Obama is re-elected, or if Romney were to be our nominee and win.
If however a conservative win, then it will only be a 5-6 year one.
The End Of The World As We Know It.
Thank you. You’re right.
Rosenberg's long-term optimism, however, is contingent upon a change of government in November, 2012. So if Obama should be re-elected, even another ten years would be optimistic.
In time, no doubt.
There would be a lot of work rebuilding Cities to get it started!
Not having entitlements didnt seem to ease the Depression back then either.
Corporations have been expanding their operations in COMMUNIST countries. Think about that.
I’m in basic agreement with him. By 2017 growth should start increasing enough to dent the unemployment problem somewhat. By 2022 the demographics look much better, leading to more growth.
The most interesting investment I see right now is Arizona real estate. Heading down soon to acquire some. Rental vacancies are low and returns are very good.
That was not the gist of my post. The point is those hand outs were not available in the 30's as compared to today. If it wasn't available now the fact that we're in a depression now would be obvious for all to see....not to mention there would have been riots in the streets long ago.
Corporations have been expanding their operations in COMMUNIST countries. Think about that.
Think about what, what has that got to do with this thread?
After 2013, when ObamaCare kicks in, the government will begin rationing health care and the elderly will be dying off in great numbers. That will usher in the Democrats anticipated savings in the health care burden that the elderly sick are costing Medicare and Medicaid.
It will be handled in a very matter-of-fact manner, just as we have done in the killing of the inconvenient unborn for the past 30+ years. Utilitarian philosophy will be promoted by the media to seem eminently reasonable to a majority of amoral citizens.
Rosenberg is an optimist.
The devil is in the demographics.
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