Posted on 11/18/2011 7:05:34 PM PST by blam
Deutsche Bank Has A Super-Bullish Take On The Latest Economic Data
Simone Foxman
Nov. 18, 2011, 12:12 PM
Image: babblingdweeb / Flickr
Deutsche Bank economists Joseph LaVorgna and Carl Riccadona wax hugely positive about the U.S. economic outlook in a new note out this morning.
Particularly convincing is that they made a prediction for today's release of leading economic indicators that came in right on the mark for a 0.9% increase.
In fact, with LEI gains for 16 out of the last 17 months, nothing here suggests a recession:
There have never been false upswings in the LEI from which growth upturns did not ultimately materialize.
Through September, the twelve-month rate of change in the LEI was +5.9% and if our forecast for October is on the mark, it will produce a year-over-year change of +6.6%. This rate is broadly consistent with above-trend economic growth.
They elaborate, saying that anyone who's blaming M2 money growth for this increase is just not looking deeply enough at the facts: the economy is actually looking really strong right now.
The pro-growth readings on the LEI at present are due to a confluence of factors and cannot be dismissed as a distortion resulting from a single subcomponent, such as M2.
Image: Deutsche Bank
But LaVorgna's concluding statement is the most shocking. He suggests that the only thing holding the U.S. economy back right now is probably fear from Europe:
We have been hesitant to raise our already above consensus growth forecast in light of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the possibility, albeit it small, of a systemic shock to global financial markets.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Did our debt go away??!!! Did the banks get rid of all those foreclosed homes in their inventory??!! Can we go back to market to market accounting system implemented after the Enron Scandal??? How does our banks look then??? If US growth came from borrowing money from savings and not money printed by the Fed Reserve, then our expansion is real. Otherwise it is like a factory owner Xeroxing dollar bills in his office, and give them to his friends to come buy his products, and then claim he is making a profit.
As I’ve always said, if you can’t trust the Deutsche Bank, you can’t trust anyone. Free rose-colored glasses to the first million customers! Bob
“Deutsche Bank Has A Super-Bullish Take On The Latest Economic Data”
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has extraordinary gifts.
She is fervent in her belief in the power of individual freedoms and free markets.
I just farted a rainbow.
I thought I smelled skittles.....
To clarify the bullish .... bullsh!t.
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