[SeekAndFind]

CHINA HAS A BIG DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEM...FROM THE ARTICLE:

The risk to China is not a hard landing, but complacency about the country's visible success. China has accomplished the largest migration in history, and continues to shift nearly 15 million people a year from the countryside to cities. Its demographic problems will not impact the economy for two decades or more, because so many of its people are moving from rural poverty to urban productivity.

Although the overall Chinese population is poised to decline, the absolute number of Chinese engaged with the world economy will continue to rise rapidly for some time. And the present generation of university graduates, for all the deficiencies of tertiary education, is the largest, most qualified and most ambitious in Chinese history.

If China fails to promote fertility, though, the aging and eventual shrinkage of the population will pass a point of no return around 2040. The proportion of elderly dependents will jump to 40% in three decades, which is difficult but not impossible to manage; but unless China regains replacement fertility well before then, the elderly dependent ratio will rise to 60% by 2060, and the Chinese empire will implode.

[mamelukesabre]

I think the people who imposed the one child policy are smart enough to know when to ease up. The problem is once the people are used to one child families in urban environments, how hard will it be to get them to make more babies? Russia and western europe aren’t having much luck.

[fallujah-nuker]

Thanks for posting Spengler, I don’t think many people read him, which is a shame because he is well worth reading.

[PzLdr]

Yeah, but the majority of American college students [and grads] are women. And not that many of them are engineering majors. I don’t share the author’s optimism.

[bert]

Such extrapolation is pretty much meaningless