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Syria Ignores Arab Deadline (Rumors of War)
Gulf News ^ | December 5, 2011 | Staff Writer

Posted on 12/04/2011 7:20:34 PM PST by gandalftb

Dubai: Syria faced new sanctions after missing an Arab League deadline yesterday to allow observers to monitor the uprising.

A senior Qatari official was quoted as saying that Syria had asked for "new clarifications and further amendments to be made to the protocol which was proposed" to cover the deployment of the observer mission. But the Arab ministers had "refused."

Yesterday's deadline was announced in Doha by Qatari Prime Minister Shaikh Hamad Bin Jasem Al Thani, who also warned against the internationalisation of the Syrian crisis if Damascus did not heed the Arab call.

(Excerpt) Read more at gulfnews.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Israel; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: dubai; israel; libya; qatar; syria; turkey
The conflict has evolved to a point where war is imminent and the players are aligning and moving tactically, and an overall strategy is defining.

The "internationalisation" Shaikh Hamad warned against is a coming "no-fly zone" over Syria. The details are being worked out with Turkey in the lead. Travel by 19 top Syrian leaders is now banned, all flights cut in half, an Arab arms embargo and assets frozen. Syria responded with a new 30% tax on goods from Turkey.

Syria logically (for them) rejects the "observer mission" because Syrian security wouldn't accompany them, hence the complaints of sovereignty. Syria is well aware that the observers would be packed with MI-6 and French intelligence officers, coordinating and trying to meet and evaluate the Syrian opposition leaders.

The Syrian opposition is now financed by the House of Saud, with weapons and 600+ Libyan fighters from Libya (accompanied by a sigh of relief), organized by the Muslim Brotherhood, and headquartered in Iskenderun, Turkey.

There are many Syrian deserters heading there also.

Meanwhile the US and NATO are providing the intel and logistical support.

Oh, by the way, the Russians are having a fit because they are selling and installing a $300 million dollar coastal defense system to Syria and don't want an arms embargo. They stand to lose big time if Syria tips over as the Russian naval base at Tartus, Syria does all the maintenance and refit for their Black Sea Fleet. Russia needs years and lots of money to build their proposed base on Cyprus.

Powerful forces are moving. Everyone in the region is involved from the Kurds to Iran to Israel to Egypt to every Gulf region country. The final resolution of the Assad-Hezbollah-Iran cabal is at hand and it will be noisy and it will be next year.

1 posted on 12/04/2011 7:20:45 PM PST by gandalftb
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To: doug from upland; Nachum; Cindy; G8 Diplomat; AdmSmith; Dog; nuconvert; Straight Vermonter; ...

ping


2 posted on 12/04/2011 7:24:59 PM PST by gandalftb (11th MEU, 2/4 Echo, TRAP Force)
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To: gandalftb

How many Hezbollah and Iranian Guards are headed to Syria?


3 posted on 12/04/2011 7:29:25 PM PST by edpc (Wilby 2012)
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To: gandalftb
The final resolution of the Assad-Hezbollah-Iran cabal is at hand and it will be noisy and it will be next year.

Your lips to God's ears.

4 posted on 12/04/2011 7:30:12 PM PST by denydenydeny (The more a system is all about equality in theory the more it's an aristocracy in practice.)
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To: gandalftb
Then, it could easily escalate into Iran turning the Persian Gulf into a free-fire zone. That has immense economic consequences. Would Oil-producing countries and Western countries be really up to the challenge? Unless it would be done in the manner of covert proxy war?

Of course, if EU and U.S. decide that all are lost on their economic front, they could go along with this.

5 posted on 12/04/2011 7:33:48 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster (The way to crush the bourgeois is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation)
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To: edpc
Good question. Hezbollah is pretty well pinned down, holding on to southern Lebanon and staying pretty neutral so far. They well know that their survival depends on getting along with the future rulers of Syria, whomever they may be.

Iran is certainly offering all help possible. Ayatollah Khamanei just issued a fatwa requiring Iranians to buy from Syria first. The Iranians, Syria's only ally, will be greatly affected by the travel embargo as they have to cross either Iraq or Turkey to get there.

6 posted on 12/04/2011 7:38:09 PM PST by gandalftb (11th MEU, 2/4 Echo, TRAP Force)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Iran flat doesn’t have the naval and air assets to go against the entire Gulf Cooperation Council and our military assets.

We have a huge military presence in Bahrain and Kuwait and Iran would lose much more than they would ever gain.

Remember, their Bushehr reactor and their only gasoline distillery are a one hour mission time from being smoking craters along with all their export terminals.

There is a covert, proxy war going on in Iran now that has their shaky dual-government on the ropes now.


7 posted on 12/04/2011 7:45:09 PM PST by gandalftb (11th MEU, 2/4 Echo, TRAP Force)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks gandalftb.


8 posted on 12/04/2011 7:52:05 PM PST by SunkenCiv (It's never a bad time to FReep this link -- https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: SunkenCiv

BTW, there is one more player on board.

Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh finally officially acknowledged that 100 Syrian military and police deserters have taken refuge there in the kingdom during the uprising. It was the first official public confirmation that Jordan hosts Syrian defectors.

It has been known that deserters have going to Jordan for the last eight months at the rate of 50-80 a month.

Our ties with Jordan intelligence are a matter of record and it takes little thought to consider the value and future use of these deserters in the newly created Free Syrian Army.


9 posted on 12/04/2011 7:58:02 PM PST by gandalftb (11th MEU, 2/4 Echo, TRAP Force)
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To: gandalftb

An interesting turn of events. Where is the French aircraft carrier just now? Is it off Syria? Looks like a Turko-Franco-Anglo force might be getting ready to pull a Libyan style revolt in Syria soon. Where is Obama and the USA? He’s on vacation? Where is Hillary Clinton? Is she in Europe working on her next war? Where is the Russian carrier just now? Where is the US carriers? This could go bad really fast—its going to take a skilled (and bloody) hand to pull this off.

NATO strikes Syria, Iran backs Syria and strikes US fleet in gulf. US counter attacks, China steps in along with North Korea and Pakistan — We have WW III. Russia might side with us this time.


10 posted on 12/04/2011 8:17:43 PM PST by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll)
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To: gandalftb
"There is a covert, proxy war going on in Iran now that has their shaky dual-government on the ropes now."

I don't know about PROXY but it's certainly covert.

Somebody keeps blowing up all the Iranian sh!t and nobody knows who, or how.

The Iranians are very nervous and jumping at every sound. I'm guessing they've been on FULL alert for at least a month.

11 posted on 12/04/2011 8:25:47 PM PST by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: gandalftb

Syria needs to be taken out to clear the road to Iran and to make Israel safe when Iran is taken out.


12 posted on 12/04/2011 9:42:15 PM PST by Thunder90 (Fighting for truth and the American way... http://citizensfortruthandtheamericanway.blogspot.com/)
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To: Forward the Light Brigade

The US moved a carrier group close to Syria. The Israelis are also likely to participate in a war against Syria, marking a historic first for a joint Arab-US-Israeli operation.

However, any operation against Syria may forstall US troops leaving Iraq, as the Iraqi government may ask US forces to stay a little longer to protect the northwestern Iraqi border.


13 posted on 12/04/2011 9:46:32 PM PST by Thunder90 (Fighting for truth and the American way... http://citizensfortruthandtheamericanway.blogspot.com/)
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To: Forward the Light Brigade

“Where is the French aircraft carrier just now?”

The French carrier Charles de Gaulle (R91) arrived at its home port of Toulon, France on 28 September for a major refit. After 1300+ sorties over Libya, she needs lots of work. We won’t be seeing her for at least 3-4+ months.

We are working Syria hard behind the scenes to avoid the mistakes of Libya and get the opposition forces fully operational.

Syria has the potential for a significant regional war if we aren’t ready for a no-fly zone, which we are not. Hilary is likely staying up late on this conflict. The Arabs, through the Gulf Cooperation Council are taking the lead and are the front men for now.

The Admiral Kuznetsov hasn’t even left the Barents Sea and has many stops along the way, they won’t be anywhere near until the end of the year.

The USS Bush is in the Med, just finishing an 8 day liberty in Marseilles, they needed to fix sewer/plumbing problems also while there.

Doesn’t look like a no-fly zone until next year.


14 posted on 12/04/2011 10:30:02 PM PST by gandalftb (11th MEU, 2/4 Echo, TRAP Force)
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To: Thunder90

“Syria needs to be taken out to clear the road to Iran “

Agreed, clearly this all apart of the march to Iran. Syria has to be neutralized and that would largely solve the Hezbollah and Palestinian issues.


15 posted on 12/04/2011 10:33:06 PM PST by gandalftb (11th MEU, 2/4 Echo, TRAP Force)
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To: Thunder90

“The Israelis are also likely to participate in a war against Syria”

The House of Saud couldn’t be seen to be in any collusion with Israel. I think the Israelis sit this one out and reap the benefits of the Assads gone and Iran’s direct influence greatly curtailed.

Iran is building a natural gas pipeline across Iraq and Syria, certainly, new Syrian Sunni and Kurd rulers would think differently and hear the cash register ringing a little more clearly.


16 posted on 12/04/2011 10:38:07 PM PST by gandalftb (11th MEU, 2/4 Echo, TRAP Force)
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To: dennisw; Cachelot; Nix 2; veronica; Catspaw; knighthawk; Alouette; Optimist; weikel; Lent; GregB; ..
Middle East and terrorism, occasional political and Jewish issues Ping List. High Volume

If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.

..................

17 posted on 12/05/2011 5:28:07 AM PST by SJackson (Haven't changed the environment, just take a bath. Eat a piece of chocolate. You need one. Michelle)
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To: edpc

How many Arab League nations can dance on the head of a pin?


18 posted on 12/05/2011 8:28:48 AM PST by Eleutheria5 (Diplomacy is war by other means.)
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To: gandalftb

More likely than air time to target of any attack on an Iranian refinery in retaliation for its attempts to harm the flow of oil would be ship or submarine launched missiles, IMHO.


19 posted on 12/05/2011 3:22:19 PM PST by elhombrelibre ("I'd rather be ruled by the Tea Party than the Democratic Party." Norman Podhoretz)
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To: gandalftb
hardly -- if Syria is "taken out", the problems for Israel will escalate

The Syrian leadership is Alawi -- a heretical branch of Islam reviled by Sunnis. They keep the majority Sunnis in check and protect the 10-20% of the Syrian population who are Christians

If Assad falls, the Christians get massacred and a Sunni jihadi group comes to power, like in Egypt

THAT would be worse for Israel

And the Palestinian problem is Hamas -- Sunni, more than Hiz-b-allah -- Shia.

20 posted on 12/06/2011 6:43:01 AM PST by Cronos (Nuke Mecca and Medina now..)
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To: Cronos

In my post #15, the phrase “taken out” was in quotes as a restate to post #12 made by others.

I used only the word “neutralized” to describe the end result of the Syrian civil war.

I am familiar with the Alewites and their minority control over the Syrian military.

Of Syrians: 74% are Sunni/Sufi, 13% are Alawites/Ismailis/Twelvers, 10% are Christians,and 3% are Druze.

After a civil war, in a national power vacuum, minorities always have the threat of abuse. Christians are not going to be massacred, the Alewites have a much larger chance of retribution as they have been oppressing and murdering the Sunni majority for years.

Egypt does not have jihadists coming to power, your statements border on the hysterical. Of course, Islamists may come to power and they may contain some jihadists, as all Arab populations do.

Bottom line, Muslims have learned that jihadists are bad for government and bad for business.

Israel would greatly profit from a Syria without overt Iranian influence. All the Palestinians are a problem for Israel. A more neutral Syria might come to the peace table with Israel like Jordan and Egypt have done. The difficult negotiations would still be difficult, but they would be less complex.


21 posted on 12/06/2011 9:38:29 AM PST by gandalftb (11th MEU, 2/4 Echo, TRAP Force)
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To: gandalftb

Deployable Battle Force Ships: 284
Ships Underway (away from homeport): 151 ships (53% of total)
On deployment: 109 ships (38% of total)
Attack submarines underway (away from homeport): 19 subs (35%)
On deployment: 17 subs (31%)
Ships Underway
Aircraft Carriers:
USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) - Pacific Ocean
USS George Washington (CVN 73) - 7th Fleet
USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) - 5th Fleet
USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) - Atlantic Ocean Amphibious Assault Ships:
USS Wasp (LHD 1) - Atlantic Ocean
USS Essex (LHD 2) - port visit Manila
USS Bataan (LHD 5) - 5th Fleet
USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7) - Atlantic Ocean
USS Makin Island (LHD 8) - Pacific Ocean

This status was valid 2DEC11. There are no CVNs in the SIXTHFLT AOR at thsi time.
http://www.navy.mil/navydata/navy_legacy_hr.asp?id=146


22 posted on 12/06/2011 9:57:24 AM PST by wxgesr (I want to be the first person to surf on another planet.)
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To: gandalftb

And if anyone is so inclined, they can go on their FB site to welcome them home!

https://www.facebook.com/USSGeorgeHWBush


23 posted on 12/06/2011 10:01:16 AM PST by wxgesr (I want to be the first person to surf on another planet.)
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To: gandalftb
note:

1. the number of Christians you've quoted is 10% -- the official figure. There are many refugees from Iraq (which had 2 million Christians in 2003 and only 400,000 and dropping now)

2. Christians will be massacred -- I give you Iraq and Egypt as empirical proof

3. islamists in power -- come on, what else do you call the Moslem brotherhood? The Moslem brotherhood is also the group that gave the same philosophy to AlQaeda and is heavily influenced by Wahabbi philosophy

A more neutral Syria might come to the peace table with Israel like Jordan and Egypt have done -- that is not going to happen. in fact Jordan and Egypt came to the peace table due to strong men -- and the new Egypt regime IS heavily anti-Israel

Assad may be the devil, but he's the devil we know -- the replacement will be worse.

24 posted on 12/06/2011 12:30:21 PM PST by Cronos (Nuke Mecca and Medina now..)
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To: gandalftb
gandalfb: Egypt does not have jihadists coming to power, your statements border on the hysterical

Au contraire: an ally no more: Egypt

With vote tallies in for Egypt’s first round of parliamentary elections in it is abundantly clear that Egypt is on the fast track to becoming a totalitarian Islamic state.

I'm sorry, but your statement is wrong - this is not "hysteria" -- it's from the Jewish World Review...

25 posted on 12/06/2011 1:15:57 PM PST by Cronos (Nuke Mecca and Medina now..)
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To: Cronos

“Jewish World Review” is hardly objective.

You’re going to wear your self out chasing every Dore Gold, etc. and Jewish drumbeater publications.

I am a big support of Israel but virtually all of their associated publications live to slosh out hyperbole to scare the world to their side.

We need to calm down over Egypt, Libya, Turkey. Those are very mixed societies and moderate elements will emerge over time. There won’t be any welcome home parties for Zawahiri.


26 posted on 12/06/2011 1:46:36 PM PST by gandalftb (11th MEU, 2/4 Echo, TRAP Force)
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To: Cronos

1. Half of the 1.2 million (2007) Iraqi Chaldean Christians have left Iraq for other countries, many in Europe. 250,000 are living in the Detroit area. That depopulation will continue but there has been no widespread massacres.

2.& 3. Check out this article:

http://english.ahram.org.eg/~/NewsContent/1/64/28346/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt-Copts-react-to-Islamist-electoral-win.aspx

Real Egyptians from both sides talking rationally about the future.


27 posted on 12/06/2011 1:59:10 PM PST by gandalftb (11th MEU, 2/4 Echo, TRAP Force)
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