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Without Syria, Iran is headless in Iraq
Gulf News ^ | Tuesday, December 20, 2011 | Sami Moubayed of Forward Magazine

Posted on 12/19/2011 4:44:32 PM PST by SunkenCiv

A few years back, Iran formulated a scenario for "the day after" Hezbollah leaves the scene in Lebanon, either if a new civil war breaks out or if the Syrians signed a peace treaty with Israel. Iran wanted to make sure that a Plan B was ready, automatically switching to a military group that would do the job Hezbollah had been doing, in terms of promoting and defending Iranian influence in the Arab world while "protecting" Arab Shiites...

The conditions in Iraq, after all, were similar to those in Lebanon when Hezbollah was founded in the early 1980s. There was foreign occupation, a weak central government, disgruntled Shiites with big political ambitions, and plenty of arms. A serious Iranian campaign was launched to give the Sadrists a major facelift, similar to the one given to Hezbollah in 1989-1991, when Nasrallah himself was completely relocated to Tehran for crash courses in religion, politics and warfare. The Sadrist army froze its activities for six months, in order to filter undisciplined and rowdy members, its troops were trained in guerilla warfare, and Sadr himself travelled to Iran to elevate his theological standing...

Iranian leaders are eyeing the political vacuum that will emerge in Iraq once the Americans leave this December. That vacuum, they believe, can only be filled either by Iran or Saudi Arabia... There are places in the Iraqi Sunni community, however, where Iran cannot venture, no matter how hard it tries. This is where Syria becomes vital for Iranian ambitions, due to its excellent relations with Iraqi Baathists, Iraqi tribes (which overlap between Syria and Saudi Arabia), and heavyweight Sunni politicians in the Iraqi Islamic Party and the Iraqi Accordance Front. The Iranians are afraid that a "Sunni Spring" is being prepared for Iraq in early 2012.

(Excerpt) Read more at gulfnews.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: iran; iraniraq; iraq; iraqiran; iraqunhinged; lebanon; syria
Image Credit: Dana A. Shams ©Gulf News

Without Syria, Iran is headless in Iraq

1 posted on 12/19/2011 4:44:34 PM PST by SunkenCiv
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Hence, the Sunni uprising in Syria...


2 posted on 12/19/2011 4:45:51 PM PST by SunkenCiv (Merry Christmas, Happy New Year! May 2013 be even Happier!)
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To: SunkenCiv

Sunni and Shi’ite fighting it out in Iraq is good news for Kurds.


3 posted on 12/19/2011 4:58:05 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: SunkenCiv
Thanks, SunkenCiv.

There's a lesson in this for us all. The Obamanation may seem to have ushered in the era of America's downfall, but as history has demonstrated time and again, it isn't over until Moochle/the fat lady sings.

4 posted on 12/19/2011 4:59:44 PM PST by lbryce (BHO:The bastard offspring of Satan and Medusa.)
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To: MinorityRepublican

There are also Sunni and Shi’a Kurds.


5 posted on 12/19/2011 5:56:53 PM PST by Sarajevo
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To: Sarajevo

I believe you but aren’t most Kurds Sunni?


6 posted on 12/19/2011 6:00:17 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

Nope. They are split between Sunni, Shi’a, and Christian. During the Kurdish Refugee Crisis in ‘91, I actually met one who claimed to be Jewish. They are quit a diverse crowd, but their common bond is being a Kurd.


7 posted on 12/20/2011 3:44:12 PM PST by Sarajevo
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To: Sarajevo

Intereresting, in fact we need to do more to convert Kurds to Christianity. Especially since they’ve been oppressed by Islamic Arabs for centuries now.


8 posted on 12/20/2011 4:08:29 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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