"Have faith"
Posted on 01/01/2012 8:08:15 AM PST by SeekAndFind
the “Romney Steady” thing is what is scarry to me.
I sorry to see Newt in the toilet and Paul stalling, as one that favors a small constitutional federal government that does not regulate every facet of ones life those two are the only ones I like. Guess the new boss will be just like the old boss AGAIN.
Romney has been stuck at his level since he started campaigning. No surprise there.
If he becomes President he is going to continue the steady pace set by Obama towards the cliff.
Romney is steady because even the Republican candidates are refusing to go after him.
Yet will PILE ON any other opponent in a second.
What is wrong with this picture?
"Have faith"
Gingrich is the only hope we have to return back to some resemblance to a Constitution and heavy on constitutional ideas.
Paul is big gov’t fraud and Earmark King!
Nutter Ron is a DC insider for 32 years and loves his Pork for his buddies !
He fought the GOP earmark ban and was only One of four to vote against it!
In 2009 fraud Ron requested over 134,000,000
So spare us the Paul bit spin
Correct me if I am incorrect here, but is not “earmarking” just saying with specificity how the appreciated money is to be spend? Why is that a bad thing? It is better to just appropriate the money and allow the administration (Obama) to spend it anyway the administration wants to.
The Cain supporters I know who chose to move on, are moving on to Santorum.
I know one or two who went to Gingrich (and tried to convince others that the majority of people were - but that was a lie)
The rest are still voting for Cain. He is still on the ballot in IA, FL and SC.
Well, my prediction simulation is shot, but it isn’t too bad. It appears that I just have to reverse the names a little.
Given these numbers, in the case of Rick Santorum, he can win IA, if and only if, Ron Paul falls below 18%.
The way I see it:
In my first simulation, I had Gingrich edging Romney by about 800 votes 25.4% to 24.9%. Paul was 3rd with just under 16% and Perry fourth with 15%, while Bachmann got a little over 10% and Santorum, a little over 8%, with Huntsman getting less than 1%
I am working on re-running the simulation for all 99 counties again. The way I see it.
Bachmann takes Santorum’s old place, but she may not make it to even 8%. She seems to be in the 6-7% range at best and it seems conservatives split between her and Santorum moved to coalesce around Santorum, indicating her final numbers may be even lower. The news to watch here is the lower her number is, the less Santorum would have to worry about Paul, Perry, or Gingrich percentages. The goal is to get to roughly 25%.
Huntsman is the other wild card. He polls votes mostly from Romney and Paul. The higher percentage he polls, even if it’s 2 or 3%, the better a position the Anti-Romney candidates are in. At even 2%, this would Push Romney below 24% and Paul under 17%. At 3%, Romney would probably be a little about 23% with Paul at or around 16%. If that happens, then Santorum has an excellent shot at winning IA.
As for Perry and Gingrich, Perry takes over Bachmann’s place in the simulation, though he gets a point and a half uptick to push him to around 12%, while Gingrich takes Perry’s place in the simulation and gets a point downtick to around 14%.
The magic number I believe to watch is 30. That is, if the combined percentage of Ron Paul and whomever is leading between Gingrich/Perry is less than 30%, then Santorum has a good chance at picking up IA. For every point Huntsman gets, you can push this number up 1.
Example: Santorum can edge Romney in the following situation:
Santorum: 23.4%
Romney: 23.2%
Paul: 17.5%
Gingrich: 13.8%
Perry: 11.9%
Bachmann: 7.5%
Huntsman: 2.7%
Huntsman takes 2.7%. The combined percentage of Paul and Gingrich is 31.3. The magic number here is 32 thanks to Huntsman, so Santorum could eek out a win.
However, in the following example, Romney wins:
Romney: 24.2%
Santorum: 22.2%
Paul: 18.3%
Gingrich: 14.1%
Perry: 12.3%
Bachmann: 7.5%
Huntsman: 1.4%
In this example, Huntsman got 1.4%. The combined percentage of Paul and Gingrich is over 32. In this case, Santorum can only make the point up if Perry or Bachmann’s numbers fall at least 1 percentage point off.
Im voting for Cain in Fl.
Prediction: Milt will finish 3rd behind Santorum and Rupaul... MSM and Faux News will still declare Milt to be the big winner.
There’s not a preprinted ‘ballot’ in Iowa. It’s a blank piece of paper that anyone’s name can be written on. And it is secret. And it’s a ‘straw vote’ - it doesn’t mean anything. No national delegates will be selected nor can delegates to the next levels be bound to a candidate.
I guess the Santorum surge is too litte, too late, with no follow-up possible; Romney will be nominee because of our own divisions, and the establishment figures this out long ago. Still, I would like to see Santorum as president; think he is right for the office among the current field.
I wonder if we’ll get a “Dean Scream” from one or more of the candidates about 9pm or so Iowa time?
Who are you trying to fool here!
You know what PORK is !
Pork is the mothers milk of Big Government.
This racist lying fraud had some nerve peddling
Some little govt bs while spreading millions of my tax dollars to his pals on Texas !
The fraud fought and voted against the GOP Pork Ban !
The Jew hating fraud was acting like a Pig in Mud during the
Phony Stimulus scan and demanded over 134,000,000
That year!
I don’t get it. Nobody’s perfect. Every one of our flash-in-the-pan, front-running candidates has gotten thrown under the bus after some little flaw they may or may not have had took prominence in the popular mind. But Romney remains steady??? The most flawed candidate of all remains steady?
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