Skip to comments.DMR poll shows Santorum rising, Ron Paul stalling, and Romney steady
Posted on 01/01/2012 8:08:15 AM PST by SeekAndFind
On the surface, the new (and final) Des Moines Register poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers basically corroborates polling from Rasmussen and NBC/Marist earlier in the week, which showed Mitt Romney slightly edging Ron Paul, while Rick Santorum gained enough ground to move into third place. The numbers are almost identical, at 24/22/15 — but it’s not the topline that is the real news. The four-day poll of 602 likely caucus-goers, which is a larger sample than NBC/Marist but smaller than Rasmussen’s single-day survey, had significant change in the final two days of polling on Thursday and Friday:
But the four-day results dont reflect just how quickly momentum is shifting in a race that has remained highly fluid for months. If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent.
Momentums name is Rick Santorum, said the Registers pollster, J. Ann Selzer.
Another sign of the races volatility: 41 percent of likely caucusgoers say they could still be persuaded to change their minds.
Newt Gingrich fell further off the pace to 12%. Rick Perry, who had improved in the earlier two polls, scored a little lower in the DMR survey at 11%, and Michele Bachmann dropped to 7%. Assuming that this is how the final caucus numbers turn out, it’s likely to be Bachmann’s last stand. Perry and Gingrich will almost certainly have enough resources and energy to continue to South Carolina; Perry’s team announced that it would skip New Hampshire altogether, not exactly surprising as Perry hasn’t had much traction in the Granite State at all during this cycle, not even when Perry rode high in national polling. Gingrich has polled better and might not be able to pass up a chance to try to dent Romney’s momentum coming out of a potential Iowa win.
Can Santorum win Iowa? Rep. Steve King was skeptical of the idea, but Santorum’s proximity makes it at least a reasonable possibility. What then? Santorum won’t get much support at all in New Hampshire, so he’d likely take a page from Perry’s book and spend the week in South Carolina, hoping to build momentum with evangelicals and conservatives. The last polls from South Carolina showed Gingrich firmly in command, but they were from two weeks ago, too, before Gingrich’s slide began in earnest. Santorum’s average in the state from August to mid-December on Real Clear Politics put him dead last, even below Jon Huntsman. Winning South Carolina would be a tall order for Santorum, and yet a failure to do so leaves Santorum with few paths to even being competitive through Super Tuesday in March, with states like Nevada, Michigan, and Florida on the schedule in between. But if Santorum could pull off a miracle win in South Carolina, then conservative donors might flock to his banner as the sole remaining Not Romney with a viable shot at beating Mitt, even if still a long shot.
For Romney, though, the rise of Santorum and the Paul Stall is good news. He’d be more threatened by Gingrich or Perry, and his steadiness in Iowa shows that he has staying power. That plus his campaign resources should allow him to easily outlast Santorum, unless a Santorum surge forces everyone else out of the race early. However, if Romney wins Iowa and then New Hampshire, that might be enough even for South Carolinians to consider the virtues of wrapping up the nomination fight early, regardless of how well Santorum does.
the “Romney Steady” thing is what is scarry to me.
I sorry to see Newt in the toilet and Paul stalling, as one that favors a small constitutional federal government that does not regulate every facet of ones life those two are the only ones I like. Guess the new boss will be just like the old boss AGAIN.
Romney has been stuck at his level since he started campaigning. No surprise there.
If he becomes President he is going to continue the steady pace set by Obama towards the cliff.
Romney is steady because even the Republican candidates are refusing to go after him.
Yet will PILE ON any other opponent in a second.
What is wrong with this picture?
Gingrich is the only hope we have to return back to some resemblance to a Constitution and heavy on constitutional ideas.
Paul is big gov’t fraud and Earmark King!
Nutter Ron is a DC insider for 32 years and loves his Pork for his buddies !
He fought the GOP earmark ban and was only One of four to vote against it!
In 2009 fraud Ron requested over 134,000,000
So spare us the Paul bit spin
Correct me if I am incorrect here, but is not “earmarking” just saying with specificity how the appreciated money is to be spend? Why is that a bad thing? It is better to just appropriate the money and allow the administration (Obama) to spend it anyway the administration wants to.
The Cain supporters I know who chose to move on, are moving on to Santorum.
I know one or two who went to Gingrich (and tried to convince others that the majority of people were - but that was a lie)
The rest are still voting for Cain. He is still on the ballot in IA, FL and SC.
Well, my prediction simulation is shot, but it isn’t too bad. It appears that I just have to reverse the names a little.
Given these numbers, in the case of Rick Santorum, he can win IA, if and only if, Ron Paul falls below 18%.
The way I see it:
In my first simulation, I had Gingrich edging Romney by about 800 votes 25.4% to 24.9%. Paul was 3rd with just under 16% and Perry fourth with 15%, while Bachmann got a little over 10% and Santorum, a little over 8%, with Huntsman getting less than 1%
I am working on re-running the simulation for all 99 counties again. The way I see it.
Bachmann takes Santorum’s old place, but she may not make it to even 8%. She seems to be in the 6-7% range at best and it seems conservatives split between her and Santorum moved to coalesce around Santorum, indicating her final numbers may be even lower. The news to watch here is the lower her number is, the less Santorum would have to worry about Paul, Perry, or Gingrich percentages. The goal is to get to roughly 25%.
Huntsman is the other wild card. He polls votes mostly from Romney and Paul. The higher percentage he polls, even if it’s 2 or 3%, the better a position the Anti-Romney candidates are in. At even 2%, this would Push Romney below 24% and Paul under 17%. At 3%, Romney would probably be a little about 23% with Paul at or around 16%. If that happens, then Santorum has an excellent shot at winning IA.
As for Perry and Gingrich, Perry takes over Bachmann’s place in the simulation, though he gets a point and a half uptick to push him to around 12%, while Gingrich takes Perry’s place in the simulation and gets a point downtick to around 14%.
The magic number I believe to watch is 30. That is, if the combined percentage of Ron Paul and whomever is leading between Gingrich/Perry is less than 30%, then Santorum has a good chance at picking up IA. For every point Huntsman gets, you can push this number up 1.
Example: Santorum can edge Romney in the following situation:
Huntsman takes 2.7%. The combined percentage of Paul and Gingrich is 31.3. The magic number here is 32 thanks to Huntsman, so Santorum could eek out a win.
However, in the following example, Romney wins:
In this example, Huntsman got 1.4%. The combined percentage of Paul and Gingrich is over 32. In this case, Santorum can only make the point up if Perry or Bachmann’s numbers fall at least 1 percentage point off.
Im voting for Cain in Fl.
Prediction: Milt will finish 3rd behind Santorum and Rupaul... MSM and Faux News will still declare Milt to be the big winner.
There’s not a preprinted ‘ballot’ in Iowa. It’s a blank piece of paper that anyone’s name can be written on. And it is secret. And it’s a ‘straw vote’ - it doesn’t mean anything. No national delegates will be selected nor can delegates to the next levels be bound to a candidate.
I guess the Santorum surge is too litte, too late, with no follow-up possible; Romney will be nominee because of our own divisions, and the establishment figures this out long ago. Still, I would like to see Santorum as president; think he is right for the office among the current field.
I wonder if we’ll get a “Dean Scream” from one or more of the candidates about 9pm or so Iowa time?
Who are you trying to fool here!
You know what PORK is !
Pork is the mothers milk of Big Government.
This racist lying fraud had some nerve peddling
Some little govt bs while spreading millions of my tax dollars to his pals on Texas !
The fraud fought and voted against the GOP Pork Ban !
The Jew hating fraud was acting like a Pig in Mud during the
Phony Stimulus scan and demanded over 134,000,000
I don’t get it. Nobody’s perfect. Every one of our flash-in-the-pan, front-running candidates has gotten thrown under the bus after some little flaw they may or may not have had took prominence in the popular mind. But Romney remains steady??? The most flawed candidate of all remains steady?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.