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DMR poll shows Santorum rising, Ron Paul stalling, and Romney steady
Hotair ^ | 01/01/2012 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 01/01/2012 8:08:15 AM PST by SeekAndFind

On the surface, the new (and final) Des Moines Register poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers basically corroborates polling from Rasmussen and NBC/Marist earlier in the week, which showed Mitt Romney slightly edging Ron Paul, while Rick Santorum gained enough ground to move into third place. The numbers are almost identical, at 24/22/15 — but it’s not the topline that is the real news. The four-day poll of 602 likely caucus-goers, which is a larger sample than NBC/Marist but smaller than Rasmussen’s single-day survey, had significant change in the final two days of polling on Thursday and Friday:

But the four-day results don’t reflect just how quickly momentum is shifting in a race that has remained highly fluid for months. If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent.

“Momentum’s name is Rick Santorum,” said the Register’s pollster, J. Ann Selzer.

Another sign of the race’s volatility: 41 percent of likely caucusgoers say they could still be persuaded to change their minds.

Newt Gingrich fell further off the pace to 12%. Rick Perry, who had improved in the earlier two polls, scored a little lower in the DMR survey at 11%, and Michele Bachmann dropped to 7%. Assuming that this is how the final caucus numbers turn out, it’s likely to be Bachmann’s last stand. Perry and Gingrich will almost certainly have enough resources and energy to continue to South Carolina; Perry’s team announced that it would skip New Hampshire altogether, not exactly surprising as Perry hasn’t had much traction in the Granite State at all during this cycle, not even when Perry rode high in national polling. Gingrich has polled better and might not be able to pass up a chance to try to dent Romney’s momentum coming out of a potential Iowa win.

Can Santorum win Iowa? Rep. Steve King was skeptical of the idea, but Santorum’s proximity makes it at least a reasonable possibility. What then? Santorum won’t get much support at all in New Hampshire, so he’d likely take a page from Perry’s book and spend the week in South Carolina, hoping to build momentum with evangelicals and conservatives. The last polls from South Carolina showed Gingrich firmly in command, but they were from two weeks ago, too, before Gingrich’s slide began in earnest. Santorum’s average in the state from August to mid-December on Real Clear Politics put him dead last, even below Jon Huntsman. Winning South Carolina would be a tall order for Santorum, and yet a failure to do so leaves Santorum with few paths to even being competitive through Super Tuesday in March, with states like Nevada, Michigan, and Florida on the schedule in between. But if Santorum could pull off a miracle win in South Carolina, then conservative donors might flock to his banner as the sole remaining Not Romney with a viable shot at beating Mitt, even if still a long shot.

For Romney, though, the rise of Santorum and the Paul Stall is good news. He’d be more threatened by Gingrich or Perry, and his steadiness in Iowa shows that he has staying power. That plus his campaign resources should allow him to easily outlast Santorum, unless a Santorum surge forces everyone else out of the race early. However, if Romney wins Iowa and then New Hampshire, that might be enough even for South Carolinians to consider the virtues of wrapping up the nomination fight early, regardless of how well Santorum does.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: dmrpoll; imperiousromney; impetuousromney; iowacaucus; loserromney; msm4romney; ricksantorum; romney; romneycare4u; romneycollapsing; ronpaul; saboteurromney; santorum; soros4romney

1 posted on 01/01/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

the “Romney Steady” thing is what is scarry to me.


2 posted on 01/01/2012 8:10:43 AM PST by Vaquero ("an armed society is a polite society" Robert A. Heinlein)
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To: Vaquero

I sorry to see Newt in the toilet and Paul stalling, as one that favors a small constitutional federal government that does not regulate every facet of ones life those two are the only ones I like. Guess the new boss will be just like the old boss AGAIN.


3 posted on 01/01/2012 8:14:18 AM PST by jpsb
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To: Vaquero

Romney has been stuck at his level since he started campaigning. No surprise there.


4 posted on 01/01/2012 8:14:31 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: Vaquero

If he becomes President he is going to continue the steady pace set by Obama towards the cliff.


5 posted on 01/01/2012 8:15:43 AM PST by Leep
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To: Vaquero

Romney is steady because even the Republican candidates are refusing to go after him.

Yet will PILE ON any other opponent in a second.

What is wrong with this picture?


6 posted on 01/01/2012 8:15:48 AM PST by Cringing Negativism Network (ROMNEY / ALINSKY 2012 (sarcasm))
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To: Vaquero

"Have faith"

7 posted on 01/01/2012 8:20:45 AM PST by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: SeekAndFind

Gingrich is the only hope we have to return back to some resemblance to a Constitution and heavy on constitutional ideas.


8 posted on 01/01/2012 8:21:18 AM PST by Logical me
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To: jpsb

Paul is big gov’t fraud and Earmark King!
Nutter Ron is a DC insider for 32 years and loves his Pork for his buddies !
He fought the GOP earmark ban and was only One of four to vote against it!
In 2009 fraud Ron requested over 134,000,000
So spare us the Paul bit spin


9 posted on 01/01/2012 8:24:03 AM PST by ncalburt (NO MORE WIMPS need to apply to fight the Soros Funded Puppet !)
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To: ncalburt

Correct me if I am incorrect here, but is not “earmarking” just saying with specificity how the appreciated money is to be spend? Why is that a bad thing? It is better to just appropriate the money and allow the administration (Obama) to spend it anyway the administration wants to.


10 posted on 01/01/2012 8:28:43 AM PST by jpsb
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To: SeekAndFind

The Cain supporters I know who chose to move on, are moving on to Santorum.

I know one or two who went to Gingrich (and tried to convince others that the majority of people were - but that was a lie)

The rest are still voting for Cain. He is still on the ballot in IA, FL and SC.


11 posted on 01/01/2012 8:31:33 AM PST by justsaynomore (#writeincain https://www.facebook.com/groups/wrtieincain/)
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To: SeekAndFind

Well, my prediction simulation is shot, but it isn’t too bad. It appears that I just have to reverse the names a little.

Given these numbers, in the case of Rick Santorum, he can win IA, if and only if, Ron Paul falls below 18%.

The way I see it:

In my first simulation, I had Gingrich edging Romney by about 800 votes 25.4% to 24.9%. Paul was 3rd with just under 16% and Perry fourth with 15%, while Bachmann got a little over 10% and Santorum, a little over 8%, with Huntsman getting less than 1%

I am working on re-running the simulation for all 99 counties again. The way I see it.

Bachmann takes Santorum’s old place, but she may not make it to even 8%. She seems to be in the 6-7% range at best and it seems conservatives split between her and Santorum moved to coalesce around Santorum, indicating her final numbers may be even lower. The news to watch here is the lower her number is, the less Santorum would have to worry about Paul, Perry, or Gingrich percentages. The goal is to get to roughly 25%.

Huntsman is the other wild card. He polls votes mostly from Romney and Paul. The higher percentage he polls, even if it’s 2 or 3%, the better a position the Anti-Romney candidates are in. At even 2%, this would Push Romney below 24% and Paul under 17%. At 3%, Romney would probably be a little about 23% with Paul at or around 16%. If that happens, then Santorum has an excellent shot at winning IA.

As for Perry and Gingrich, Perry takes over Bachmann’s place in the simulation, though he gets a point and a half uptick to push him to around 12%, while Gingrich takes Perry’s place in the simulation and gets a point downtick to around 14%.

The magic number I believe to watch is 30. That is, if the combined percentage of Ron Paul and whomever is leading between Gingrich/Perry is less than 30%, then Santorum has a good chance at picking up IA. For every point Huntsman gets, you can push this number up 1.

Example: Santorum can edge Romney in the following situation:

Santorum: 23.4%
Romney: 23.2%
Paul: 17.5%
Gingrich: 13.8%
Perry: 11.9%
Bachmann: 7.5%
Huntsman: 2.7%

Huntsman takes 2.7%. The combined percentage of Paul and Gingrich is 31.3. The magic number here is 32 thanks to Huntsman, so Santorum could eek out a win.

However, in the following example, Romney wins:

Romney: 24.2%
Santorum: 22.2%
Paul: 18.3%
Gingrich: 14.1%
Perry: 12.3%
Bachmann: 7.5%
Huntsman: 1.4%

In this example, Huntsman got 1.4%. The combined percentage of Paul and Gingrich is over 32. In this case, Santorum can only make the point up if Perry or Bachmann’s numbers fall at least 1 percentage point off.


12 posted on 01/01/2012 8:33:29 AM PST by parksstp (Articulate Conservatives look for Converts. RINO's look for Democrat Heretics.)
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To: justsaynomore

Im voting for Cain in Fl.


13 posted on 01/01/2012 8:36:49 AM PST by goseminoles
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To: SeekAndFind

Prediction: Milt will finish 3rd behind Santorum and Rupaul... MSM and Faux News will still declare Milt to be the big winner.


14 posted on 01/01/2012 8:37:39 AM PST by rhinohunter (Not voting for RINO Romney...no way...no how)
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To: justsaynomore

There’s not a preprinted ‘ballot’ in Iowa. It’s a blank piece of paper that anyone’s name can be written on. And it is secret. And it’s a ‘straw vote’ - it doesn’t mean anything. No national delegates will be selected nor can delegates to the next levels be bound to a candidate.


15 posted on 01/01/2012 8:38:10 AM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: SeekAndFind

I guess the Santorum surge is too litte, too late, with no follow-up possible; Romney will be nominee because of our own divisions, and the establishment figures this out long ago. Still, I would like to see Santorum as president; think he is right for the office among the current field.


16 posted on 01/01/2012 8:41:01 AM PST by Theodore R. (I'll still vote for Santorum if he is on the April 3 ballot.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I wonder if we’ll get a “Dean Scream” from one or more of the candidates about 9pm or so Iowa time?


17 posted on 01/01/2012 8:42:43 AM PST by deport
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To: jpsb

Who are you trying to fool here!
You know what PORK is !
Pork is the mothers milk of Big Government.
This racist lying fraud had some nerve peddling
Some little govt bs while spreading millions of my tax dollars to his pals on Texas !
The fraud fought and voted against the GOP Pork Ban !
The Jew hating fraud was acting like a Pig in Mud during the
Phony Stimulus scan and demanded over 134,000,000
That year!


18 posted on 01/01/2012 8:44:12 AM PST by ncalburt (NO MORE WIMPS need to apply to fight the Soros Funded Puppet !)
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To: SeekAndFind

I don’t get it. Nobody’s perfect. Every one of our flash-in-the-pan, front-running candidates has gotten thrown under the bus after some little flaw they may or may not have had took prominence in the popular mind. But Romney remains steady??? The most flawed candidate of all remains steady?


19 posted on 01/01/2012 8:50:04 AM PST by LibWhacker
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To: Cringing Negativism Network
The reverse of that is true, the opposition to Willard has made him flat line, if there was not opposition he would have risen. The anybody but Willard effect. In short the voters want a winner, and they do not believe that is Willard. Rick seems to be the person that will win, however, I still think the Backmann support is understated. In the end, if it it is not rick or Backmann, Willard will win by default.
20 posted on 01/01/2012 8:51:48 AM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and nervous supporters.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Santorum won’t get much support at all in New Hampshire, so he’d likely take a page from Perry’s book and spend the week in South Carolina, hoping to build momentum with evangelicals and conservatives.

Santorum has already purchase TV time in NH. NH voters resemble a subset of Pennsylvania voters. Perhaps not the ideal setting for Santorum to win, but enough genuine conservatives to finish respectably.

21 posted on 01/01/2012 8:58:36 AM PST by Crichton
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To: ncalburt
Get back to me when you calm down. Texas ranks very low (41 I think) in remittances from D.C. As a Texan I would hope our representatives get as much $$$$ for Texas as say do New Yorkers for New York. Taking care of the legitimate needs of the people that elected them is you know one of the primary duties of a congressman, senator.

The problem with appropriations is not earmarking per say, it is with appropriating money the federal government does not have.

22 posted on 01/01/2012 9:02:36 AM PST by jpsb
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To: parksstp

Santorum: 23.4% ..Will prove that the Huckaway of visiting every county, every Pizza Ranch, and kissing every baby in Iowa WORKS GREAT!!!

Romney: 23.2% ..LESS than he got in ‘08 when Huck LANDSLIDED poor Willard

Paul: 17.5% ..He’s sliding down perhaps BELOW Newt

Gingrich: 13.8% ..I think Newt can hit 15% tops — the $10,000,000 in attack ads sadly worked


Perry: toast
Bachmann: toast
Huntsman: toast


23 posted on 01/01/2012 9:04:48 AM PST by CainConservative ( Newt/Rubio 2012 with Cain, Bolton, Santorum, Perry, Watts, Duncan, & Bachmann in Newt's Cabinet)
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To: CainConservative
Gingrich: 13.8% ...Perry: toast

I think this is wishful thinking. Regardless of the result in Iowa, I expect both Gingrich and Perry to continue to NH and/or SC.

Bachmann I expect to drop out barring, as she puts it, a miracle.

24 posted on 01/01/2012 9:11:36 AM PST by Crichton
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To: org.whodat
It is imperative that Perry and Bachmann drop out today! They are killing Santorum’s lead. They are being selfish. Newt should drop out after NH which he will not do well. Going into SC should be Sanotrum, Romney and Paul and that tis it!!!! Game over. Sanotrum wins and starts working on the national election.
25 posted on 01/01/2012 9:14:50 AM PST by napscoordinator (Happy New Year's! The Year the Nightmare is OVER!!!!!)
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To: Crichton

I don’t think Perry or Newt should stay past NH. They are going to do dismal in NH. I mean seriously Perry will finish dead last.....Yep behind Huntsman. Newt will be the second last place. They are just standing in the way of moral conservative Santorum.


26 posted on 01/01/2012 9:18:00 AM PST by napscoordinator (Happy New Year's! The Year the Nightmare is OVER!!!!!)
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To: justsaynomore

You obviously don’t know me then. I have moved on from Cain to Perry and there are many more who have done the same.


27 posted on 01/01/2012 10:35:57 AM PST by maxter
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To: napscoordinator

They can’t even participate when the votes move south? Why run at all then?


28 posted on 01/01/2012 10:45:48 AM PST by maxter
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To: Diogenesis

“Have faith”
.....and pray hard....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdEfwRdJpF0


29 posted on 01/01/2012 10:53:46 AM PST by TheCause ("that these United Colonies are, and of right ought to be, free and independent States")
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To: Diogenesis

Dear Lord, thank you for giving me the strength
And the conviction to complete the task you entrusted to me.
Thank you for guiding me straight and true,
Through the many obstacles in my path.
And for keeping me resolute when all around seemed lost.
Thank you for your protection and for your many signs along the way.
Thank you for any good that I may have done.
I’m so sorry about the bad.
Thank you for the friends of the Cause I have made.
Please watch over them as you watched over me.
Thank you for never allowing me to rest.
I’m so very tired, but you give me the strength.
But before I go to my final resting place, help me to fight with all I have.
In the end, please let me be at peace
Knowing that I have done right
with my time on this earth.
Knowing that I fought the good fight.
That I finished the race.
That I kept the faith.
Amen.


30 posted on 01/01/2012 11:03:44 AM PST by TheCause ("that these United Colonies are, and of right ought to be, free and independent States")
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To: justsaynomore

Mitt Romney thanks them


31 posted on 01/01/2012 11:28:02 AM PST by Lib-Lickers 2
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To: goseminoles

oh good a protest vote at this vital point(and I was a Cain supporter too).. I’m pretty sure if you gave your name and address to Romney he will send you a personal thank you note


32 posted on 01/01/2012 11:33:01 AM PST by Lib-Lickers 2
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To: napscoordinator

let’s wait a couple weeks until we find out who becomes the non Romney candidate after the SC primary then all get behind him..


33 posted on 01/01/2012 11:40:42 AM PST by Lib-Lickers 2
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To: Lib-Lickers 2

Romney can kiss my ass...


34 posted on 01/01/2012 1:05:18 PM PST by goseminoles
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To: jpsb
Correct me if I am incorrect here, but is not “earmarking” just saying with specificity how the appreciated money is to be spend?

If there is nothing wrong with wasting money with bribes called earmarks, why does the surrender monkey say he is against them? If he is truly against them why does he acquire more bribes called earmarks than any other candidate running? Maybe because he is just plain dishonest.
35 posted on 01/01/2012 4:58:16 PM PST by John D
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To: John D
It is my understanding that Paul is not against earmarks, he is in favor of earmarks. Going on memory I think his argument is that earmarks are completely transparent and that it is entirely appropriate for Congress to specify how the federal monies should be spent. The problem in D.C. is not that congress uses earmarks to specify exactly how money is spent. The problem is that congress spends money it does not have.
36 posted on 01/01/2012 5:20:03 PM PST by jpsb
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To: jpsb
The problem is that congress spends money it does not have.

And Cut and Run spends as much of it as he possibly can.
37 posted on 01/01/2012 5:30:09 PM PST by John D
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To: Crichton
Perhaps not the ideal setting for Santorum to win, but enough genuine conservatives to finish respectably.

I am aware of two genuine conservatives in NH...I may vote for Santorum; not sure what the other conservative is going to do...

38 posted on 01/01/2012 5:36:41 PM PST by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: John D
That is simply not true, Paul can not appropriate one dime of federal money on his own, he is only 1 of 435 members of the House of Representives. However I did find this

Washington, DC: Congressman Ron Paul has returned $141,580 of unspent office funds to the US Treasury. This represents just over 9% of the total office funds, and an increase over the $100,000 returned last year.

“Since my first year in Congress I have managed my office in a frugal manner, instructing staff to provide the greatest possible service to the people of the 14th district at the least possible cost to taxpayers,” said Paul.

The surplus funds are intended to go towards paying down the national debt.

I have no problem debating the pros and cons of our candidates but the lies and insults do nothing to further the cause of honest conservative constitutional governance. Paul is wrong on many issues but being a good steward of public money is not one of them.

39 posted on 01/01/2012 5:43:59 PM PST by jpsb
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To: jpsb

Pork is the sole of big govt .
Paul has been pushing Pork for 32 years


40 posted on 01/01/2012 9:19:41 PM PST by ncalburt (NO MORE WIMPS need to apply to fight the Soros Funded Puppet !)
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