I agree with everything you just said, but no longer believe that Democrats and Republicans (the politicians, at least) are adversarial in nature. They merely are playing large scale “good cop, bad cop.” I think that the black swans will be the real cogs in the works.
They are only adversarial in nature with each other, and usually not even based in principle, need we only look at the progressives running as Repuplicans for President this year.