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2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread
Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: 2012; bigideas; campaign2012; caucus; foxnewsisbiased; foxnewspimpsmitt; frankly; getitdone; gop; gosantorum; ia2012; iowa; iowacaucus; iowaisirrelevant; iowamattersnot; liveiowacaucus; muchadoaboutiowa; muchadoaboutnothing; newt; newtlautenberg; nominee; openprimary; perry; president; ricksantorum; santorum; santorum2012; solutions
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To: Deo volente

You doubt the Force? :D


1,841 posted on 01/03/2012 10:38:06 PM PST by BenKenobi
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To: Cboldt
"and subject to the jurisdiction thereof." is language which refers to those outside of the jurisdiction of U.S. law. An Ambassador of France, for example, is under the jurisdiction of French law even while residing in the U.S. (he has diplomatic immunity). But a citizen of France who is residing in the U.S. is under jurisdiction of U.S. law. Therefore, according to the 14th amendment, the Ambassador's child born on U.S. soil is not a citizen at birth, while the child of the French citizen who had residence in the U.S. is a citizen at birth.

The 1898 Ark case dealt with this in great detail.

1,842 posted on 01/03/2012 10:38:17 PM PST by Anitius Severinus Boethius
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To: onyx

Bachman needs to give it up...and endorse Newt...though if she stalls she’ll likely go to Romney.

Since Paul doesn’t give two craps about the country I don’t expect him to endorse anyone along the way...except Romney....or God forbid Obama pays him enough to go third party.

As I said before..Perry wasn’t in it for the win from the beginning....you don’t come that ill prepared to interview for the Highest office in the land. His hearts in Texas...and He loves being Texas Governor... and that is where he really wants to be.


1,843 posted on 01/03/2012 10:38:17 PM PST by caww
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To: bray

For Mittens, with that much money in the race, if he wins, someone is going to want to be repaid. That is the source of problems with our system.

Cronyism can be purchased.


1,844 posted on 01/03/2012 10:38:43 PM PST by LachlanMinnesota (Which are you? A producer, a looter, or a moocher of wealth?)
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To: Impy

Caddell just suggested Santorum lost in 2006 because of “social issues”. I guess Pat forgot that Rick was running against Bob Casey, the allegedly pro-life son of a Pro Life icon.

Santorum got clobbered because 1) Casey neutralized him on abortion, 2) Santorum stuck to his guns on Iraq when it was hugely unpopular and 3) Rendell’s coattails and Lynn Swann’s lack thereof.

Caddell is usually more reasonable. Tonight he was just flat-out factually wrong.


1,845 posted on 01/03/2012 10:39:44 PM PST by WhistlingPastTheGraveyard (Some men just want to watch the world burn.)
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To: caww
Bachman needs to give it up...and endorse Newt

I just emailed her with a note encouraging her to drop out and endorse Rick!

1,846 posted on 01/03/2012 10:40:05 PM PST by pollywog ("O Thou who changest not, abide with me.".......)
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To: Deo volente
Sorry, Clinton County is also still out.

The Fox map shows a southeast county as being out. It's surrounded by counties won by Romney, Paul and Santorum. Is that Clinton?

1,847 posted on 01/03/2012 10:40:48 PM PST by CedarDave
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To: BillyBoy

Thanks for the update.

Wow, 62 counties for Santorum!


1,848 posted on 01/03/2012 10:41:34 PM PST by Sun (Pray that God sends us good leaders. Please say a prayer now.)
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To: onyx
He still has a lot of money. I don’t know what candidates are permitted to do with it, do you?

I've never read the actual campaign finance law on it, but I think the disbursement of leftover campaign funds is up to the candidate's discretion (after all bills and debts are paid, of course).

1,849 posted on 01/03/2012 10:42:36 PM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: Cboldt

His parents were legal resident asylum aliens. Rubio has a legal birth certificate. His standing as a natural born U.S. citizen has no legal objection.


1,850 posted on 01/03/2012 10:42:48 PM PST by HapaxLegamenon
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To: LachlanMinnesota

Yep, that is the problem with the system and why we need a better more grass roots one. Rick won on a shoestring and at this point looks like he could become the Tea Party candidate.

Pray for America


1,851 posted on 01/03/2012 10:42:59 PM PST by bray (Romney is the Establishment)
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To: Deo volente

What counties (if any) are the Indian Reservations in? Shannon/Todd county (Pine Ridge) is notorious in SoDak for turning in votes at the last minute once they find out who needs them (the most liberal candidate).

We once stayed up all night in CA, watching Fox news for the votes to arrive (Daschle vs. Thune).


1,852 posted on 01/03/2012 10:43:46 PM PST by reaganaut (If Romney is a conservative then I'm the frickin Angel Moroni.)
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To: AmericanInTokyo

I’m with you FRiend.


1,853 posted on 01/03/2012 10:43:54 PM PST by antceecee (Bless us Father.. have mercy on us and protect us from evil.)
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To: caww

Yup.


1,854 posted on 01/03/2012 10:44:23 PM PST by Free Vulcan (Election 2012 - No Prisoners. No Mercy.)
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To: BillyBoy

Always trying to rain on someones parade...can’t you let it rest and enjoy the scenery now and then...it’s been an interesting race tonight and most are happy Romney didn’t have the slam dunk victory he thought....how aboutt letting us all gloat that Romney isn’t in the shape he thinks he’s in...and when the tally’s in maybe we can call him..looser!


1,855 posted on 01/03/2012 10:44:40 PM PST by caww
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To: reaganaut

Wondering the same thing. How much time does it really take to count/rig 100 votes?


1,856 posted on 01/03/2012 10:45:13 PM PST by Sleeping Freeper
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To: World'sGoneInsane; onyx; Windflier; thouworm; caww; All

I agree!

Stay in, Rick! Don’t wimp out like Herman.

No one’s certain of what can and will happen.

This is a year that, even if they never admit it,
WILL defy the smug beltway punditry, damn them all.

~~~~~~~~

AND

I meant to add to the above: because

NO ELECTION IN HISTORY has seen this nation and citizenry in such a horrendous, shameful, tragic, demoralized, impoverished and overwhelmed state with THE worst, most purposely cold-blooded, anti-American potus EVER, who’s taking his pounds of flesh of redistributive resentment and vengeance out on us every single day, along with all his Obot czars and overlords ... NEVER! God have mercy on us, we humbly beseech you, and keep Your Angels every near.


1,857 posted on 01/03/2012 10:45:22 PM PST by STARWISE (The overlords are in place .. we are a nation under siege .. pray, go Galt & hunker down)
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To: CedarDave

Still out two precincts, one in Clinton County (where Romney leads 386-321) and the other in Keokuk County (where Santorum leads with 92 and Romney is 3rd with 73).


1,858 posted on 01/03/2012 10:45:26 PM PST by ancientart
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To: Antoninus
Mitt Romney has zero chance of being the nominee. His support tops out at under 30%, which means that 70%+ oppose him. And that alone prevents him from the nomination.

We need to put this 'fear of Mitt' to rest. We are being handed a gift in this election. The odds are strongly in our favor to replace Obama. Let's not blow it by picking a big-government moderate. Let's put a conservative in the White House. Stop worrying about Mitt.

1,859 posted on 01/03/2012 10:45:58 PM PST by Hoodat (Because they do not change, Therefore they do not fear God. -Psalm 55:19-)
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To: CedarDave

No, that’s Louisa County, where Santorum and Romney ended up tied at 87 votes each.

Clinton and Keokuk are the only counties still less than 100%. You can scroll over the map for individual results by county.


1,860 posted on 01/03/2012 10:46:21 PM PST by Deo volente (God willing, America will survive this Obamination.)
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