Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Obama Up 5 On Romney Nationally ["A Colbert bid could be a blessing in disguise for the GOP"]
publicpolicypolling ^ | January 17, 2012 | PPPStaff

Posted on 01/17/2012 2:39:16 PM PST by fight_truth_decay

PPP's first national poll of 2012 finds Barack Obama with his best standing against Mitt Romney since last May, right after the killing of Osama bin Laden. Obama leads Romney 49-44.

It's not as if Obama's suddenly become popular. He remains under water with 47% of voters approving of him to 50% who disapprove. Romney's even less popular, with only 35% rating him favorably while 53% have a negative opinion of him. Over the last month Romney's seen his negatives with independents rise from 46% to 54%, suggesting that the things he has to say and do to win the Republican nomination aren't necessarily helping him for the general. Obama's turned what was a 45-36 deficit with independents a month ago into a 51-41 advantage.

One thing that really stands out in this poll is the extent to which Obama has claimed the middle. He's up 68-27 on Romney with moderates. He leads by 20 points with voters under 45, a group there's been some concern about slippage with, and he has a 66-30 advantage with Hispanics.

Ron Paul matches Romney's performance against Obama, trailing by 5 points at 47-42. Beyond those two Newt Gingrich trails by 7 at 49-42, Rick Santorum has an 8 point deficit at 50-42, and Rick Perry trails by 11 points at 51-40.

Stephen Colbert wants to run for President but he's not on the ballot in South Carolina. Americans Elect is on the ballot in a lot of states but doesn't have a candidate. Could Colbert and Americans Elect's interests intersect?

We find Colbert getting 13% in a hypothetical third party run for President, compared to 41% for Obama and 38% for Romney. A Colbert bid could be a blessing in disguise for the GOP. His voters go for Obama over Romney 52-38 in

(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: americanselect; colbert; polls2012; ppp

1 posted on 01/17/2012 2:39:27 PM PST by fight_truth_decay
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: fight_truth_decay
We find Colbert getting 13% in a hypothetical third party run for President, compared to 41% for Obama and 38% for Romney. A Colbert bid could be a blessing in disguise for the GOP. His voters go for Obama over Romney 52-38 in
I would prefer Colbert to Romney. I would prefer Obama himself to Romney. So whatever.
2 posted on 01/17/2012 2:42:02 PM PST by Timaeus (Willard Mitt Romney Delenda Est)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: fight_truth_decay

One reads tons of nonsense and I guess this will continue at least until the general election.

Now I’m reading about Colbert getting 13% as a third party candidate? I swear it’s time to stop reading news until November.


3 posted on 01/17/2012 2:43:19 PM PST by Williams (Honey Badger Don't Care)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: fight_truth_decay

“Over the last month Romney’s seen his negatives with independents rise from 46% to 54%, suggesting that the things he has to say and do to win the Republican nomination aren’t necessarily helping him for the general. Obama’s turned what was a 45-36 deficit with independents a month ago into a 51-41 advantage.”

Willard Flopney is very bad at winning elections.


4 posted on 01/17/2012 2:44:43 PM PST by CainConservative (Newt/Santorum 2012 with Cain, Huck, Petraeus, Parker, Watts, Duncan, & Bachmann in Newt's Cabinet)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: fight_truth_decay
Obama leads Romney 49-44

And Obama still has about 9 months of rehabilitating and resurrecting to make him shine for his Second Coming.

The GOP, if they do intend to try to win in 2012, a position many doubt, need to pay attention.

The perception a few months ago that any Republican could beat Obama are in error. This election is NOT going to be a shoo-in for just any Republican.
5 posted on 01/17/2012 2:45:18 PM PST by TomGuy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All
8:40 AM ON JANUARY 17, 2012 BY ED MORRISSEY
WaPo poll: Romney 35, Gingrich 17

Excerpts:

Voters in this poll still don’t have a firm grip on their decision. Only 36% have definitely made up their mind on a candidate, with 60% saying they could change their mind yet. Romney supporters, though, are more solid, with 43% locked into their choice and 53% saying that their vote could change.

The poll surveyed 1,000 adults, but we don’t know how many of them were actual Republican voters. I’ve seen the WaPo/ABC poll sample consist of 25% or fewer Republican adults, let alone registered voters. A sample size of 250 Republican adults, with fewer being registered voters, would not be a terribly reliable sample on which to rely for predictive modeling.

And ED MORRISSEY asks why at this late stage of the primary is the WaPo/ABC poll still surveying the general population or registered voters? Why not likely voters?

6 posted on 01/17/2012 2:49:21 PM PST by fight_truth_decay
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: fight_truth_decay
ROBAMA, ROBAMANY
7 posted on 01/17/2012 2:50:12 PM PST by FrankR (What you resist...PERSISTS!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: fight_truth_decay
I'm not buying any poll that shows Obama winning anything. A ham sandwich could beat Obama.
8 posted on 01/17/2012 2:50:40 PM PST by tobyhill (Obama, The Biggest Thief In American History)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: fight_truth_decay

MSM is shoving Flopney down America’s throats to later be routed in the general by Obama.


9 posted on 01/17/2012 2:53:09 PM PST by CainConservative (Newt/Santorum 2012 with Cain, Huck, Petraeus, Parker, Watts, Duncan, & Bachmann in Newt's Cabinet)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: tobyhill

Not if Willard is the ham sandwich.


10 posted on 01/17/2012 2:55:08 PM PST by CainConservative (Newt/Santorum 2012 with Cain, Huck, Petraeus, Parker, Watts, Duncan, & Bachmann in Newt's Cabinet)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: tobyhill


Please tell us how Mitt "Ham Sandwich" Romney has a snowballs chance in hell of winning?

What states could he possibly flip from 2008?
11 posted on 01/17/2012 3:08:10 PM PST by j_k_l
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: tobyhill
January 16, 2012

Romney's current 37% support is tied for the highest enjoyed by any Republican candidate in Gallup Daily tracking of Republican preferences so far this election cycle, and marks a 13-percentage-point increase in support from his five-day average that ended Jan. 2, just before the Iowa caucuses.

As Romney's support has increased, support for his primary competitors has dropped.

Gallup

"Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup Daily tracking survey Jan. 11-15, 2012, with a random sample of 1,195 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who are registered to vote, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling.

For results based on the total sample of Republican registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking...."

*********************************************************** Poll: Romney and Obama even in Florida; 64% want more Everglades spending

by George Bennett | January 17th, 2012
A new poll commissioned by the Everglades Foundation shows President Obama and GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney in a dead heat in Florida.

Obama gets 46 percent and Romney 45 percent, with 9 percent undecided, in the poll conducted by the Republican firm The Tarrance Group. This poll of 607 likely voters has a 4.1 percent margin of error. Obama holds a 44-39 lead among independents and a 50-41 lead among Hispanic voters. Romney holds a 54-37 lead among white voters and leads among voters who are 45 and older while Obama leads with voters 44 and younger. http://www.postonpolitics.com/2012/01/poll-romney-and-obama-even-in-florida-64-want-more-everglades-spending/

********************************************************** Poll: Obama, Romney in statistical dead heat
By Jonathan Easley - 01/17/12 12:22 PM ET

The Hill

Mitt Romney would fare the best against President Obama in a national election and holds a slight lead over the incumbent, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll released on Tuesday. Romney leads Obama 48 percent to 46 percent, although that’s within the poll’s margin of error of 3.5 percent. In the same poll taken in December, Obama led Romney 49 percent to 46 percent.

Obama leads Newt Gingrich 52 percent to 40 percent, Ron Paul 49 percent to 42 percent, and Rick Santorum 52 percent to 41 percent.

Republican voters are starting to view Romney as the inevitable nominee: 72 percent said they thought he would win the nomination, while no other candidate broke double digits.

12 posted on 01/17/2012 3:10:25 PM PST by fight_truth_decay
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: j_k_l

nc and in should flip to the gop. nv romney has a decent chance with the lds vote there. nh will be close. but it will come down to va, oh, and fl most likely.

of course, there’s always Obama’s trump card to play of VP Clinton with Biden leaving to be SecState. I think that likely seals the election for Obama no matter what.


13 posted on 01/17/2012 3:33:45 PM PST by jeltz25
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: j_k_l
Maine got their first Republican controlled legislature in over 40 years and new Republican governor in Paul LePage.

President Barack Obama did not win the New Hampshire primary in 2008 -- a senator named Hillary Clinton did -- Obama, riding a wave of discontent about the economy and the Iraq war, won the Granite State by a nearly 10 percent margin against the GOP nominee and one-time New Hampshire favorite, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

Huffingtton Post: January 17, 2012 A Mitt Romney New Hampshire Win Means Obama Will Have To Fight For The State

MA..Scott Brown [R] elected by the Independents in voting majority replaced years of the Kennedy Royal Family.

States like knowing the President comes from their state.. Also although polite, visitors are still being ogled at the local diner, when the outsider leaves there are some negative "cracks" made that show outsiders don't trust these visiting politicians to run their state. They want hands off from the federal government, as Obama has become that house-guest that never leaves in disrupting their lifestyles, economy, guns, or has just plain worn out his welcome and they are sick and tired of government not being able to get anything done since Obama, so they tend to blame his leadership especially.

Old charts may just be that ..Old Charts. Environments can really change.

People vote in private, no one knows who you voted for unless you tell someone--so when they pull that handle come election day-they just might pull it toward the Republican--cause who will know.

His record while President is just going to bury him--he's had it with "mitten punches" so far--but the blizzard will come soon and he won't be able to dig himself out.

14 posted on 01/17/2012 3:40:56 PM PST by fight_truth_decay
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: j_k_l
Maine got their first Republican controlled legislature in over 40 years and new Republican governor in Paul LePage.

President Barack Obama did not win the New Hampshire primary in 2008 -- a senator named Hillary Clinton did -- Obama, riding a wave of discontent about the economy and the Iraq war, won the Granite State by a nearly 10 percent margin against the GOP nominee and one-time New Hampshire favorite, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

Huffingtton Post: January 17, 2012 A Mitt Romney New Hampshire Win Means Obama Will Have To Fight For The State

MA..Scott Brown [R] elected by the Independents in voting majority replaced years of the Kennedy Royal Family.

States like knowing the President comes from their state.. Also although polite, visitors are still being ogled at the local diner, when the outsider leaves there are some negative "cracks" made that show outsiders don't trust these visiting politicians to run their state. They want hands off from the federal government, as Obama has become that house-guest that never leaves in disrupting their lifestyles, economy, guns, or has just plain worn out his welcome and they are sick and tired of government not being able to get anything done since Obama, so they tend to blame his leadership especially.

Old charts may just be that ..Old Charts. Environments can really change.

People vote in private, no one knows who you voted for unless you tell someone--so when they pull that handle come election day-they just might pull it toward the Republican--cause who will know.

His record while President is just going to bury him--he's had it with "mitten punches" so far--but the blizzard will come soon and he won't be able to dig himself out.

15 posted on 01/17/2012 3:40:56 PM PST by fight_truth_decay
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: fight_truth_decay

The internals of this poll shows a Party ID of 41D-35R-24I... if you look at Party ID in Gallup or Rassmussen its almost equal between R-D ... so it has a 5-6% bias


16 posted on 01/17/2012 3:52:59 PM PST by pithyinme (Obama stimulus is 5 times the cost & half the satisfaction...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: fight_truth_decay

Well then, lets back-channel, black-ops fund it, with plausible deniability.


17 posted on 01/17/2012 4:02:33 PM PST by AmericanInTokyo (The top leading CONSERVATIVE as of today in terms of 2012 GOP convention delegates, is RICK SANTORUM)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: fight_truth_decay

Colbert probably cannot qualify as the AmericansElect candidate.

Their governing body at (which is largely drawn from left-leaning groups) may not allow Colbert since the candidate must be someone “of credentials at the level of previous presidents” or wording to that effect. It looks like Trump is the only businessman on their “tracking list,” no TV or Hollywood celebs.


18 posted on 01/17/2012 4:22:49 PM PST by cookcounty (Newt 2012: ---> Because he got it DONE.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CainConservative

very bad at elections..as he wins iowa,nh,sc and fla....like saying hugh hefner is unlucky with blondes...


19 posted on 01/17/2012 4:34:26 PM PST by skaterboy (Hate=Love....Love=Hate)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

All contributions are for the Current Quarter Expenses.


Every time a Freeper or Lurker signs up to be a New Monthly Donor

A generous Freeper donates $10!!

Please sign up now!

20 posted on 01/17/2012 4:54:15 PM PST by RedMDer (Forward With Confidence!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: j_k_l

Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, Indiana.


21 posted on 01/17/2012 5:09:59 PM PST by tobyhill (Obama, The Biggest Thief In American History)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: fight_truth_decay

Does no one remember Pat Paulson.


22 posted on 01/17/2012 5:14:32 PM PST by BenLurkin (This is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire; or both)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: fight_truth_decay
I didn't name Romney because I think any candidate could beat Obama.
23 posted on 01/17/2012 5:16:46 PM PST by tobyhill (Obama, The Biggest Thief In American History)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: j_k_l

Indiana for sure.

No way is Baraq going to win Indiana in 2012.

I don’t like Romney at all, but he’ll beat Baraq in Indiana.


24 posted on 01/17/2012 5:22:25 PM PST by nascarnation (DEFEAT BARAQ 2012 DEPORT BARAQ 2013)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: j_k_l

in their imaginations they believe Romney can win Michigan, New Hampshire and Massachuttes...

lol


25 posted on 01/17/2012 5:26:43 PM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Go Newt!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: nascarnation

“No way is Baraq going to win Indiana in 2012.”

Indeed. I don’t think he’ll come close to winning here this time.


26 posted on 01/17/2012 5:32:47 PM PST by Clintonfatigued (A chameleon belongs in a pet store, not the White House)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: fight_truth_decay

Did you see the Ralph Nader?
Nader: White House Pressured Democrats Not To Challenge Obama
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2830319/posts


27 posted on 01/17/2012 6:07:55 PM PST by Son House (The Economic Boom Heard Around The World => TEA Party 2012)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: fight_truth_decay

PPP is another inane liberal polling group. Colbert is a joke but there are Americans , yutes, who might actually vote for him over Bama. Anything to rid this nation of the worse PreZ in our history. As to national polls, numbers now mean nada since one will wait till next Oct. to see how numbers are in the electoral battle ground states. And who knows? Perhaps Newt not Mitt will be carrying the fight. We just should stop believing in these silly polls.


28 posted on 01/17/2012 8:33:58 PM PST by phillyfanatic
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: fight_truth_decay
[Your quoted art.] Republican voters are starting to view Romney as the inevitable nominee: 72 percent said they thought he would win the nomination, while no other candidate broke double digits.

1. This is a media game that they play every four years with Republican and probable convention delegates. They don't do this to Democrats.

2. Remember that MSM people are eye-glazingly monotonously liberal 'Rat in their orientation, and their only purpose in playing this game is to screw conservatives.

3. The New York Times played this game with likely GOP convention delegates in 1963-4, booming up Nelson Rockefeller for President and then going to the delegates in the spring and asking them whom they preferred for the nomination. A large majority replied that they favored Barry Goldwater. Asked who they thought would actually get the nomination, a majority replied that they thought Rockefeller would be the nominee.

That gives you the outline of what is going on here: Conditioning respondents' expectations, in order to control the outcome.

29 posted on 01/18/2012 5:05:34 AM PST by lentulusgracchus
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: pithyinme
it has a 5-6% bias

Thanks for digging that out. Yes, that's important.

30 posted on 01/18/2012 5:10:31 AM PST by lentulusgracchus
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Williams
For God sakes, Stephen Colbert should crawl back under his rock. No one watches his stupid show so this is a lame attempt to gin up the ratings.

If 13% of the population would vote for him for President, then we can be sure at least 13% of Americans are certified morons.

Colbert is a comic...in his own mind.

31 posted on 01/18/2012 5:29:52 AM PST by SMM48
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson