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Election Oracle: Could Newt Win Florida?
The Daily Beast Campaign 2012 Election Oracle - Deeper than the Polls ^ | January 30, 2012

Posted on 01/31/2012 2:22:59 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

While Mitt Romney has opened a commanding 14-point lead in Florida in a Quinnipiac poll released Monday morning, Newt Gingrich continues to generate a more favorable conversation online—a good sign for his chances of picking up support from the one-in-three voters there who are yet to fully commit to a candidate.

While both men have had sub-zero favorability ratings for the last week as they’ve amped up their attacks on one another following Gingrich’s South Carolina win, the former speaker’s-22 rating gives him a 15-point advantage over Romney in the Election Oracle’s measure of the online conversation.


To determine favorability ratings, the Election Oracle tracks 40,000 news sites, blogs, message boards, Twitter feeds, and other social-media sources to analyze what millions of people are saying about the candidates—and determines whether the Web buzz is positive or negative. That rating is weighted, along with the Real Clear Politics polling average and the latest InTrade market data, to calculate each candidate’s chances of winning the Republican nomination. (See methodology here.)

We'll see if Gingrich’s lead in favorability rating translates into an advantage among late-deciding voters. That in turn could help answer what’s now the crucial question in this incredibly volatile primary season: If Gingrich does in fact lose Florida, will he have a fourth act?

TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 2012; florida; gingrich; newt; newtgingrich; polls; romney; teaparty
Election Oracle Methodology

The Daily Beast’s Election Oracle is an innovative tool that analyzes the latest Web and social media buzz to provide insight into election dynamics, and forecast outcomes. The technology grew from the idea that the Internet is the most extensive and immediate opinion generator ever invented, and the Oracle aims to harness that 24/7 torrent of data and opinion to create a speedy, smart complement to traditional polls.

Each day, the Oracle scrapes the Web, including some 40,000 news sites, blogs, message boards and more—along with Twitter and other social media sources—and uses its Natural Language Processor, a form of artificial intelligence, to analyze what millions of people are saying about the candidates and hot button issues online. Using technology developed by the market research firm General Sentiment, the Oracle scores every mention of the presidential candidates in those sources as positive, negative or neutral and uses that information to assign the candidates daily “favorability ratings” from -100 (all negative) to 100 (all positive). It can also assign favorability ratings to pairings of candidates and issues (whether people are speaking more favorably about Mitt Romney or Barack Obama when it comes to the economy, for instance). And the Oracle measures the volume of conversation about each candidate by counting how often each one is mentioned—a benchmark for how much buzz they’re generating.

The Oracle’s information captures the tone of the conversation online to measure who is gaining and losing traction there, and how news events are shaping the race. Because the ratings measure ambient popular opinion, all results are counted equally, from a mention in the New York Times to one in a Tweet. If the Times article is more influential, the Oracle captures that influence as the idea is repeated in other articles, tweets, and the like.

In addition to tracking favorability ratings, the Oracle also uses an algorithm to make predictions about the election outcome. By combining the favorability ratings with the latest data from the InTrade prediction market and the RealClearPolitics polling average, the Oracle offers a daily estimate of things like each candidate’s chance of claiming the Republican nomination. These predictions are expressed as a chance of winning (i.e. 60 percent means a three-in-five chance of winning the election, not 60 percent of the vote.)

The Oracle is still an experimental technology, and we are regularly refining the research model and tweaking the methodology to improve its accuracy and value. Check this page each morning for the latest from the Oracle, along with our takes on the most interesting information we’ve gleaned from consulting with it. We’re confident that collective Internet opinion will prove a key measure to watch as this year's presidential contest unfolds.

1 posted on 01/31/2012 2:23:04 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

2 posted on 01/31/2012 2:31:45 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Newt can beat the governor of the only state carried by Mondale in the ’84 election against Reagan


3 posted on 01/31/2012 2:33:43 AM PST by Elle Bee
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4 posted on 01/31/2012 2:41:59 AM PST by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; onyx; maggief; STARWISE

Good find.

5 posted on 01/31/2012 2:59:36 AM PST by hoosiermama (Stand with God: Newt, Rick and Sarah will be right next to you.)
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To: hoosiermama

Gives one a bit o’ hope, doesn’t it?

6 posted on 01/31/2012 3:07:25 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (You can't invade the US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.~Admiral Yamamoto)
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To: Elle Bee
Mondale => Minnesota => MN

Romney => Massachusetts => MA

7 posted on 01/31/2012 3:22:11 AM PST by meadsjn (Sarah 2012, or sooner)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Look what happened to Newt’s favorability on “Black Thursday.”

8 posted on 01/31/2012 3:26:18 AM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

I have a question. I have a cell phone, not a land phone. I never get calls from candidates. I gather that the vast majority of people in Florida have cell too. What are these polls doing, just calling land phones?

9 posted on 01/31/2012 3:43:28 AM PST by nikos1121
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To: Elle Bee

You have your states wrong. Massachusetts was a lone wolf in a 49 state sweep, but that was in 1972 when Nixon beat McGovern.

Minnesota was the lone Democrat state against Reagan in 1984.

10 posted on 01/31/2012 4:05:46 AM PST by Luke21
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To: nikos1121
What are these polls doing, just calling land phones

I've noticed often polling companies note when they do call cell phones. So if the methodology of a poll doesn't say, it may only be landlines. I do not know for sure though.

Perhaps the campaigns' internal polls call both...?

11 posted on 01/31/2012 4:11:26 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

I can’t understand Santorum’s thinking. He gets no delegates He wins no influence by staying in. It clearly is splitting the conservative vote.

Perry is very much in the campaign as is CAin. Santorum can be too. It must be, and only be related to Romney behind the scenes keeping him in. Plus the republican estab.

Newt may very well get clobbered today, but the polls show a different story with a two man race.


12 posted on 01/31/2012 4:15:52 AM PST by nikos1121
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To: nikos1121

two little letters might bring things into focus....

As in Romney’s VP...

Ricky is playing for a slot on the “other” team.....

13 posted on 01/31/2012 4:24:25 AM PST by rightwingextremist1776
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To: nikos1121

Santorum served in the House of Representatives and thinks HE played a big role in the Republican revolution and the “legit” conservative heir. Santorum believes his social cred should trump Newt — but this is politics and he is wrong. We don’t have the luxury of his wants.

14 posted on 01/31/2012 4:24:30 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: rightwingextremist1776

I know we all talk big here, and we say this or that...but if Romney is the nominee...and we go back to that REagan Ford convention....then there’s going to be a lot of unhappy people amongst us.

I might just sit this one out and not vote. Obviously, our side has been sold out be the media including the people we thought were with us...No more NRO, no more Ann C, no more Michelle Malkin, George Will etc. Not having them in life will not make it one iota worse, perhaps maybe it will make it better.

Isn’t it funny...Ann C says, “If Chris Christie is not the nominee then it will be Romney and we will lose the election.” And now she’s for the idiot.

I don’t think Romney will pick Santorum in a million years. He’ll convince Christie before that happens.

15 posted on 01/31/2012 4:42:58 AM PST by nikos1121
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Give me your predictions for tonight.

I think it’s going to be close and counting late into the night, or it will be like it was in SC where Newt was declared the winner within like ten seconds on Fox.

If that’s the case it will be Romney by single digits.

Then we pick ourselves up off the floor and head West. I don’t think you’ll see Sarah on the side lines. She knows that our country is at stake. I think you’ll see her join up with Todd.

The idea of a Newt/Sarah ticket, tickles the imagination.

16 posted on 01/31/2012 4:45:35 AM PST by nikos1121
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To: nikos1121
I don't know about that....Romney knows he's done when Ricky decides to drop out....Ricky needs $$$$$$ to continue and there is one person in this race that has the resources to support 1.5 campaigns...If Romney were to offer the $$$$ to continue with a VP slot at the end....

Ricky's starting to make himself look bad by sticking out his going nowhere position.

I'm starting to smell a ‘Rat in the woodpile IMHO...

17 posted on 01/31/2012 4:56:02 AM PST by rightwingextremist1776
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

My prediction:

Romney 41
Newt 31
Rick 15
Ron 14

18 posted on 01/31/2012 4:57:07 AM PST by wolfman23601
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Collective internet opinion favors Newt.

Collective telephone opinion in 1936 forecast an Alf Landon landslide.

Both wrong, and for the same reason.

Look, we are not a majority. We ARE the largest bloc, about 40%, and the only chance of electing one of our own is a three-party system.

If anyone doubts that the GOP is an enemy after the last month, there’s no hope.

Let Romney and Obama split the 60% for a change.

19 posted on 01/31/2012 5:03:17 AM PST by Jim Noble ("The Germans: At your feet, or at your throat" - Winston Churchill)
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To: Elle Bee

Pawlenty dropped out. Maybe you’re thinking McGovern 1972?

20 posted on 01/31/2012 5:18:25 AM PST by scrabblehack
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To: nikos1121

I’m not good at predictions.

I’d rather be surprised in a good way but am realistic.

The media is untrustworthy and I resent how the public is manipulated. I have no feel for how many see past the rhetoric but I’m confident that due to immersion in public schools and universities, that the public is primed to buy the lies.

21 posted on 01/31/2012 6:23:38 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: scrabblehack; Luke21; meadsjn
Oops ... my bad ... all those Ms


22 posted on 01/31/2012 7:46:37 AM PST by Elle Bee
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To: nikos1121

It’s going to be close and will probably come down to the late votes coming in from the panhandle!

Go Newt!

23 posted on 01/31/2012 8:56:07 AM PST by proudpapa
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