So what is Santorum's path to victory? Hovering overhead like a vulture until Newt implodes - hoping that there will be enough meat left on the carcass to make a difference?
In Florida, it can be argued that Santorum's presence did no harm. Looking at the raw numbers, Romney beat Newt and Santorum's totals combined. Plus, Florida is a winner take all state, so Newt would have had to win outright to get anything there. That was probably too much to expect in a purple state (just like Nevada). However, that's like looking at the problem in a vacuum, and not taking into account the momentum/perception effects a Santorum exit might have had.
Going forward though, Santorum's continued presences becomes more damaging. The rest of the contest up until April 1st are proportional delegates. Santorum will pick up delegates - delegates that will mostly be denied Newt making it harder for Newt to keep up in the delegate count race. A close second finish for Santorum in Ohio, for example, will exacerbate this - giving him a fair chunk of that states delegates.
If I thought Santorum had any chance at all - I would support his efforts to fight on. But I don't see any path to victory for Rick, and his continued presence seems only to serve as an advantage for Romney. I think Rick Perry understood the realities of the situation and that the outcome of this - in terms of the conservative cause and the need to defeat Obama - was more important than one man's personal ambitions. It's time for Santorum to step up to the plate and do the right thing.
Hold the line, there sure isn't anyone else to step up if we fail.
It is exactly for this reason that Santorum AND Newt should stay in. Proportional delegates give ensures Romney doesn’t get 50%+1 delegates.
Yes, and given his difference with Romney on abortion and can't understand why he remains in the race to do nothing except split conservative votes away from Newt.
If Santorum can’t gain any traction anywhere, don’t you think he’ll just give his delegates to Gingrich? Perry imploded and never recovered, although I was hoping things would work out better for him. Santorum has not imploded. This election year may be his only shot to become President because of the weak field, and I don’t blame him for not hanging it all up right now. It IS possible for Gingrich to implode also, but he is so well-known that all of his baggage has probably been aired. If there is something else, Team Obama is holding onto it. Santorum is not a perfect candidate, but I hope he can stay in for now. If Gingrich is to become the candidate, he needs to be able to handle the heat, because it will get ugly as we approach closer to November.
Missouri and Indiana both present “stop Mitt” opportunities because there will only be one conservative on the ballot in both states. (Newt in Indiana, Rick in Missouri).
Your analysis assumes Santorum wants Newt to win. I don’t think that is the case. Santorum is an establishment guy acting as a spoiler on behalf of the establishment candidate.
You state this, after posting this?
Head-to head, Gingrich would defeat Romney in the state, 43-42, but Santorum would, 50-37. That is because Santorum’s supporters only go for Gingrich by eight points over Romney, but Gingrich’s vote for Santorum by 28 points.
So if Santorum dropped out, Gingrich statistically ties and 'might' defeat Romney, but if Gingrich drops out, Santorum decisively defeats Romney by double digits.
Santorum's voters split between Gingrich and Romney with a slight tilt to Gingrich. Santorum dropping out doesn't help Newt a great deal at all.
Saying Santorum should drop out to help Newt is really a bogus argument.
But in Minnesota, polls suggest any one of the four candidates could take first place, with former senator Rick Santorum currently in the lead. [ed note: Santorum=29%,Romney=27%; Gingrich=22%, Paul=19%By the "Gingrich Supporter Rule", Gingrich, at 3rd place, should drop out and endorse Santorum in Minnesota, to insure a victory over Romney.
Santorum 2nd place in Colorado:
In Colorado Mitt Romney looks primed for another big Western win to match his one in Nevada. He leads with 40% there to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Gingrich, and 12% for Ron Paul.Santorum isn't in first. But he's within 14% of Romney, which interestingly is 4% closer than the 18% Gingrich is drawing. Again, invoking "Gingrich Supporter Math", Gingrich should drop out and endorse Santorum, and miraculously his entire 18% would move to Santorum, who would then win this caucus and stop Romney's momentum....
Of course, if both are in, and it's proportional, the two of them together could end up with more delegates than Romney, just like it's possible the three candidates will end up with more delegates than Romney in Nevada (Of course, at a convention, Paul isn't likely to give his delegates to GIngrich or Santorum, so I discount his value for anything other than getting a brokered convention).
Meanwhile, in the national head-to-head vs Obama, Santorum continues to climb, Newt still trailing:
Santorum vs Obama: RCP Average, Obama +9 (was +9.3 two days ago).
Gingrich vs Obama: RCP Average, Obama +11.8
The problem now is that we can't tell whether GIngrich is having a temporary problem, or will continue to slide. On the positive side, the southern states are a strong place for him. On the negative, his press conference in Nevada isn't endearing him to anybody except his strong supporters, at a time he needs to reverse a trend of increasing negatives.
And we don't know whether Santorum is rising, or if he's just getting the cast-offs from Newt, and will drop when he gets attacked like Newt was.
Since we are doing proportional stuff now, it's helping to have both in, especially Santorum who is drawing voters who would otherwise hold their nose and vote for Romney because they just don't like Newt (not my fault, not your fault, it just is what it is).