Now there you go again, rejecting my candidacy for President...
Posted on 02/07/2012 12:09:54 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Today, for the first time this cycle, multiple states hold their Republican presidential nomination contests on one day, two caucuses (Colorado and Minnesota) and one primary (Missouri). They all have two things in common. First, none of them are binding, so no delegates will be formally assigned from the vote. Second, they all represent Rick Santorum’s best shot at changing the trajectory of this race and positioning himself as the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. One final series of snap polls from PPP shows Santorum with a double-digit lead in Missouri, and nearly as much of a lead in Minnesota:
Rick Santorum could be headed for a big day in today’s contests in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri. Missouri looks like a probable win for Santorum. He’s at 45% there to 32% for Mitt Romney and 19% for Paul. Minnesota provides an opportunity for a win as well. Currently he has a small advantage with 33% to 24% for Romney, 22% for Newt Gingrich, and 20% for Ron Paul. And Santorum should get a second place finish in Colorado, where Romney appears to be the likely winner. The standings there are Romney at 37%, Santorum at 27%, Gingrich at 21%, and Paul at 13%.
Missouri is the big test. Gingrich chose not to make the ballot in Missouri (a more deliberate choice than the failure of Gingrich and Santorum in Virginia), so this is the dry run of Santorum vs Romney and Paul. If he does win big in the Show Me State, it gives Santorum an argument for his strength as a conservative candidate more likely to beat Romney in future contests than Gingrich. A win in Minnesota, where Romney won in 2008, would bolster that argument even more, but a low turnout is expected in Minnesota. That makes predictions through polling difficult, although a nine-point lead in a widely-split field is better than no lead at all.
For Gingrich, the key is to beat Santorum in the two states in which he’s competing. The results in Missouri are not terribly relevant to Gingrich, and expect his campaign to spin a Santorum win as an indictment of Romney rather than a boost for Santorum, and they wouldn’t be entirely wrong, either. Falling to third in either would raise questions about his momentum; falling out of second place in both would be a huge problem for perception of the Gingrich campaign. In Minnesota, Gingrich is in a virtual tie for second place with Romney and Ron Paul, with just four points separating the three candidates. In Colorado, Gingrich is six points back of Santorum for second place in the PPP poll, but leads slightly as the second-place choice over Santorum, 25/23.
Gingrich could score a big PR coup by pushing Romney into third place in Minnesota, or he could end up in third or even fourth place himself. He’s also tied for second in the second-place choice question with Romney at 20% in Minnesota, with Santorum leading with 25% and Paul far behind at 10%. Based on those numbers, it looks like Santorum has a chance to win it, and Romney and Gingrich will be fighting it out for second place. In that case, look for the better organization to carry the day, and that won’t be good news for Gingrich. In Colorado, there is no chance of pushing Romney into third place, but Gingrich could beat Santorum for second. He has a slight edge in electability over Santorum in both states (+7 in CO, +6 in MN), and in Colorado that might be enough to get last-minute deciders to break his way and push him into second.
On the other hand, last-minute deciders might base their decision on instinct rather than stats, and that would not be good news for Gingrich. In both states, Gingrich is barely above water on favorability (+8 in CO, +7 in MN), though, while Santorum leads the field substantially (+52 in CO, +57 in MN), with Romney in second (+28 in CO, +7 in MN, tied with Gingrich). That combined with the other disadvantages of the Gingrich campaign, plus the interesting strategic decision over the last two days to focus on Santorum, may have undercut Gingrich’s stature enough to send him into an across-the-board retreat. If so, Gingrich had either hope for a miracle in the February 22nd debate. If Santorum comes in third in both Minnesota and Colorado while winning Missouri, it won’t be as dire, but he would lose the argument over his ability to outperform Gingrich in the center of the country, and the Not-Romney stalemate would continue. And you know who that helps ….
Yes...unfortunately
“RS[Rick Santorum] wouldn’t be any better than Obama.”
That is exactly what my research indicates.
I’m getting the feeling that what I want or believe doesn’t matter, that the candidate (and even the next president) is already chosen by the powers that be. The candidate/president will answer to those in power, not me or you.
That old canard has been answered hundreds of times here on FR: to wit, many people both inside and outside of government have been looking at how to get cheaper health care, affodable health care, to a greater number of Americans.
Ideas are thrown around. Some stick, others do not.
One thing they ALL address is that the very poorest people can not afford healthcare and government will foot the bill. That is the reality now and in the future.
Newt Gingrich is a realist who prefers free market solutions but recognizes there exists folks who will not get any medical care without government help.
Whether you realize it or not, Romney and Santorum recognize it, too. The difference? Newt is honest about it.
Yeah, I feel that way too, Chief.
No, it had nothing to do with lying. They voted him out because he caved to Bush’s request that he endorse Arlen Specter.
That is correct; I believe the IRS exonerated Gingrich from the only 'trumped up' "charge" the could even stick to begin with.
RE: Santorum cannot win the general election in this country.
I’d like to know why...
My dog could win the general election over Obama
Yep; the voters were beyond po'd that he supported Specter over a true conservative....he caved into the GOP-e pressure. I hope he's learned from that HUGE mistake.
Ummm...don’t you suppose there may have been more than one reason? I’ll give a politician a break when it’s just a couple things, but looking at Ricky’s long voting record, oh my!
The following is a comment from a woman in Pennsylvania, and I would like your opinion of it:
“Having home schooled all my children to the time they all entered college, and having had to live a sacrificial life as a family for us to have done so, I am ALSO very put off by the Santorum family taking over $100,000 of state entitlements from Pennsylvania just to home school their children with a public-school-provided virtual school (not actually even permitted since they lived in Virginia and should have lost the almost $7,500 per child / per year entitlement they were being paid by Pennsylvania just to home school their children using a charter-school internet education provided by Pennsylvania for Pennsylvania residents). That is not even mentioning he had to lie about his residence to get it and then was sued by Pennsylvania when they found out (and had to pay some of that back, not all, but some as they settled).”
* * * * * * *
Incidently, I home schooled and never sought nor received money from the State of Washington.
I am sure that he learned a very difficult lesson.
I’m supporting Rick Santorum because he is by far the best chance we have of getting rid of Obamacare and that is a main priority for me, right after getting rid of Obama.
Actually, no there was only that one reason. The people of PA were furious with Santorum for caving to the pressure of the GOP establishment, who told him that they needed Specter to stay where he was, even if he was a RINO.
You want hear something funny? I’m told that Specter is now doing stand up comedy in local clubs, raunchy, almost pornographic stand up comedy.
“...Specter is now doing stand up comedy in local clubs, raunchy, almost pornographic...”
How truly pathetic.
i.e. Someone who can eat summer sausage without displaying the slightest sign of revulsion. It is a proven medical fact that only WASP stomachs can tolerate that unique mix of bland faux meat and chemicals.
Now there you go again, rejecting my candidacy for President...
Very nicely put AmericanInTokyo! I have favored Gingrich but would certainly find Santorum an acceptable candidate should he prevail. The most critical objective all of us should have is to have Obama and the Obamamites defeated in November (preferably by a candidate other than Romney).
For the life of me I don’t understand it when a (supposed) conservative Freeper such as SatinDoll goes on a manic jihad against a conservative Republican.
—I’m getting the feeling that what I want or believe doesn’t matter, that the candidate (and even the next president) is already chosen by the powers that be. —
Well, I lived in Seattle from 1966 to 2011. I felt that way the whole time I was there or, more precisely, I felt like a Jew in mid-1930’s Germany. But I think even a better analogy, especially the last ten years is Jeremiah and Lamentations.
In fact, I think Christians in the US and western culture could greatly benefit from reading these two books of the bible and meditate on their meaning.
“The subcommittee decided that regardless of the resolution of the … tax question, Mr. Gingrich’s conduct in this regard was improper, did not reflect creditably on the House, and was deserving of sanction.”
Have to laugh at this article today.....SURPRISE.
Sent the message to the MSM
CAN YOU HEAR US NOW?
Signed We The People!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.