Posted on 02/16/2012 8:16:03 AM PST by SeekAndFind
It's not just the economic numbers that are looking up for President Obama. A new New York Times/CBS News poll puts his approval rating at 50 percent, his highest mark since May 2010 (except for a brief bump after Navy Seals killed Osama bin Laden in May). That's a couple of points better than the RealClearPolitics average as displayed in the chart, but the uptrend is clear.
Now, let’s assume the economy continues to grow—not gangbusters, but something along the lines predicted by economists in the recent Wall Street Journal survey. We’re talking slow-but-steady 2.5 percent GDP growth and a slowly falling unemployment rate of 8.0 percent by year’s end. That level of unemployment, by the way, is about what White House economists are predicting, along with average monthly job growth of about 167,000. Subpar numbers, but a lot better than what we saw in 2011: 1.7 percent GDP growth, average unemployment of 9 percent, and average monthly job growth of about 150,000.
With the recovery ever-so gently accelerating, what would be the Republican argument—fair or not—that Obama doesn’t deserve reelection? Maybe something along these lines:
1. Better but not nearly good enough. The pace of the Obama Recovery has been only about half that of other post-WWII recoveries. Sure, the unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest levels since Obama took office. But that’s in good part due to a massive collapse in the size of the labor force, not rapid job growth. Income growth is still tepid at best. And just look at the housing market! You call this a recovery!? It’s still mourning in America, at least the part outside of Washington and Wall Street. Obama’s stagnant, declinist New Normal is unacceptable for the Last, Best Hope on Earth.
And many voters might agree. A recent survey of consumer sentiment found expectations about the job market at the highest levels in the history of the survey. There’s lots of room for disappointment here.
2. The Big Spend was a Big Bust. Obama’s policies don’t deserve much, if any, credit for the weakest economic recovery since the Great Depression. Obama’s signature economic achievement is the trillion dollar stimulus. In Money Well Spent? — The Truth Behind the Trillion-Dollar Stimulus, the Biggest Economic Recovery Plan in History, journalist Michael Grabbel notes that Vice President Joe Biden said the stimulus would “literally drop kick us out of the recession.” But Grabell concludes that the “poorly designed” stimulus “ultimately failed to do what America expected it to do — bring about a strong, sustainable recovery. The drop kick was shanked.” Indeed, it was only after stimulus money dried up that the economy began to perk up. And economies eventually will recover on their own, and recover more quickly, if government empowers the private sector rather than trying to usurp it. See: Reagan Recovery.
3. The recovery isn’t “built to last,” not with all that debt. Obama added $5.3 trillion to the federal debt to juice the economy—and this is the best his old-fashioned Keynesian policies could do? You could call it a “sugar high,” but it doesn’t even qualify as a sugar buzz, really. And now Obama wants to add another $7 trillion in a second term, according to his new budget, just to keep the wheels grinding along. The “built to last” economy is a “built on debt” economy and thus unsustainable. Just ask the Europeans.
4. Obama is President (Didn’t) Fix It. When Obama came into office, healthcare and other social insurance spending were on a trajectory to bankrupt America, banks were too big to fail, and the tax code was stifling American competitiveness. And which of these problems has been solved or substantially dealt with? None. The healthcare cost curve wasn’t bent, banks are bigger than ever, and Obama’s investment and corporate tax hikes are about manufacturing fairness rather than growth or jobs.
5. Obama wants to “win the future”—with crony capitalism. It was government meddling in the private sector that created the housing bubble and financial crisis. But rather than learn that lesson, Team Obama wants to double down on “state capitalism,” whether through new policies to try and reinflate the housing market or venture socialism/industrial policy in the “clean energy” sector.
The primary purpose of state capitalism, whether in Beijing or Washington, is to cement political power, not produce economic growth. What did Obama do after passing the stimulus in 2009? Next up was massive regulation of healthcare and Wall Street. State capitalists fear Schumpeterian creative destruction because they cannot control it or squeeze campaign contributions from it.
Economic freedom, on the hand, creates prosperity by unleashing the imagination of the individual and rewarding his or her effort. As analyst Ian Bremmer puts it, “Creative destruction invests liberal capitalism with a self-regenerating dynamism. … Human beings value opportunities to create prosperity for themselves and their families, and free markets have proven time and again that they can empower virtually anyone.” Crony capitalism only empowers politicians, bureaucrats, and entrenched interests.
Would voters find these arguments persuasive? With the economy humming along at 4 percent growth and unemployment under 6 percent—both White House 2012 predictions back in 2009—maybe not. But in Stagnation Nation? They just might.
I reject the premise
To say “keeps improving” implies that it’s currently improving. That is not a point we should concede.
People will not believe in an economic growth until the price of fuel comes down.
Dramatically..
How the GOP can win?
Eliminate voter fraud.
Deport about 15 million illegals.
Brokered convention to get a quality candidate.
I can dream, can’t I?
And how many accounting tricks did it take to get this pitiful growth to show up?
The republicans can’t get bogged down with complex messages for a public with the attention span of a gnat. It really can be brought down to simply asking “Is your personal economic situation better now than it was before the hope and change?”. Questions force people to think. Long winded, complex challenges to the media propaganda don’t.
What region of the US is improving?
Here in North Texas we are seeing another wave of semiconductor plants moving overseas. I submit the books are being cooked.
I like this guy but his Wall Street cheerleading kind of blinds him to the facts. Sort of like Larry Kudlow who sees sprouts in his coffee. The labor participation rate is almost 1% point lower in 1/12 than it was in 1/11. This does not happen in healthy, growing economies.
We have a quality candidate that’s currently leading Romney.
Reason number 2. is important. Obama’s government as venture capitalist has too many failures. To throw money at business concepts, without siginificant private participation at say 50% of the venture is ludicrous. That’s how we ended up with green failures. Then to intervene on private enterprise, whether energy or healthcare; in an obivious negative manner also prevents recovery. So stimulus money is used to pay for groceries, and rent; not for expansion. When expansion is proposed, Obama shuts it down.
One exception: a boom in the sales of firearms; either to private individuals or for government sponsored export to make the second ammendment look bad.
I’m not worried so much about the economy improving or not. I’m worried, instead, about two things:
1) The ability of the Republicans - whoever the nominee is - to actually make their case, and
2) The stupidity of the American people who only look at surface MSM headlines and let that drive their thinking.
I wish FR had it’s on like buttons. I agree with you. The media is hyping overtime about the economy improving, and their is some growth do to human nature, but it isn’t great growth and it can freeze or collapse in a heartbeat.
We need to ask people, are you better off now, or under Bush and the Republicans? Are people you know better off? Do you know anyone who is unemployed or underemployed?
It is a simple issue and a lot more defined than when the bayou snake head said, “It’s the economy stupid!”
Republicans have to pit Obama against a candidate that can gather a sufficient amount of the Hispanic vote.
“We have a quality candidate that’s currently leading Romney.”
There has to be a way to get someone like Paul Ryan to reconsider.
“They have this idea that people should be left alone, be able to do whatever they want to do, government should keep our taxes down and keep our regulations low, that we shouldn’t get involved in the bedroom, we should not get involved in cultural issues. That is not how traditional conservatives view the world.” - Rick Santorum
I can see the intent of the comment, and given the website, and the quote, I can see how Santorum will get pummeled. Rick Santorum got crushed in his own state, I think he’s a decent enough man, but I honestly don’t think moderates will vote for him.
Our economy will continue to contract for the foreseeable future. Only once majority of Baby Boomers are dead will it grow again.
Mac & cheese would be good - I think down the road we'll be boiling bark & grinding acorns.
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