Unemployment in February Increases to 9%, Up From 8.6%; Underemployment Increases to 19%

Townhall.com ^ | February 18, 2012 | Mike Shedlock

[Kaslin]

The latest Gallup survey finds U.S. Unemployment Increases in Mid-February

Gallup only polls those 18 and above while the official BLS number includes 16 and above. Given teenage unemployment, this would (or at least should) artificially lower unemployment numbers for Gallup. Yet, Gallup is higher, way higher, when one considers underemployment.

The U.S. unemployment rate, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 9.0% in mid-February, up from 8.6% for January. The mid-month reading normally reflects what the U.S. government reports for the entire month, and is up from 8.3% in mid-January.

US Unemployment Rate, Monthly Averages



Gallup also finds 10.0% of U.S. employees in mid-February are working part time but want full-time work, essentially the same as in January. The mid-February reading means the percentage of Americans who can only find part-time work remains close to its high since Gallup began measuring employment status in January 2010.

Percentage of Workers, Working Part Time but Want Full Time Employment



Seasonal forces typically cause unadjusted unemployment rates to increase at this time of year. In this regard, some of the sharp increase Gallup finds in unemployment and underemployment may result from seasonal factors. Although the government seasonally adjusts the U.S. unemployment rate, and the workforce participation rate could decline, it still seems likely that the BLS will report an increase in the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate for February.

Regardless of what the government reports, Gallup's unemployment and underemployment measures show a sharp deterioration in job market conditions since mid-January. BLS Numbers Not Realistic

Gallup only polls those 18 and above while the BLS includes 16 and above. Given teenage unemployment, this would (or at least should) artificially lower unemployment numbers for Gallup. Yet, Gallup is higher, way higher when one considers underemployment.

Fundamental and Mathematical Case for Structurally High Unemployment for a Decade

As I have said many times, the BLS numbers are simply not realistic for many reasons. For further discussion please see ...

• Fewer Nonfarm Employees Now Than December 2000; Unemployment Rate: Some Things Still Don't Add Up; Obamanomics? 
• Fundamental and Mathematical Case for Structurally High Unemployment for a Decade; Shrinking Job Opportunities and the Jobs Gap; The Real Employment Situation

German President Resigns; Major Embarrassment to Chancellor Merkel

The German presidency is little more than a symbolic position, nonetheless, the announcement by German President Christian Wulff that he will resign is a major embarrassment to German Chancellor Angela Merkel who hand-picked Wulff as president.

Spiegel Online reports Wulff Announces He Will Step Down

German President Christian Wulff resigned from office after prosecutors stated a day earlier they would seek to have parliament lift his immunity. Prosecutors wanted his immunity revoked so they could formally investigate allegations he accepted favors during his tenure as governor of the state of Lower Saxony. At the center of the probe are allegations that a film producer had paid for a vacation in a luxury hotel for Wulff during his time in office in the state.

Speaking nearly a half hour after Wulff's resignation, German Chancellor Angela Merkel appeared before reporters to say she had received Wulff's resignation with "great respect and deep regret." The chancellor also noted that the development underscored the strength of the German legal system because it showed that all people are treated equally, regardless of their position.

Merkel said her coalition government would approach all political parties in an effort to find a "joint candidate" to replace Wulff.

The development is likely to cause embarrassment because Wulff is the second president after Horst Köhler to step down during her term. The chancellor handpicked Wulff to run as Köhler's successor after his sudden resignation in 2010. Even after his selection, Wulff was weakened going into the presidency because it took three rounds of voting in the Federal Assembly before he was ultimately elected.Financial Times reports that Merkel cancelled a meeting scheduled with prime minister Mario Monti in Rome on Friday in the wake of the announcement by Wulff.

[Texas Fossil]

Obama LIES, the BIG LIE!

Note the divergence of the 2 BLS graph lines from the Alternate Unemployment line. Based on same data without the lies. It indicates a 23% actual unemployment. Frightening data.

How do you tell if Obozo is lying? When his lips are moving, with or without the tele prompter.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Kaslin.

• Where are the jobs?
• White House predicts 'moderate' recovery through election (if government pursues the right policies)

[The Sons of Liberty]

23% actual unemployment. Frightening data.

But, but Hussein told us we were in recovery ....

Frightening, yes, but the 0bama regime is who should be most frightened. When people begin to get desperate, they do what they have to survive. No amount of fake stats and propaganda will change that.

[tcrlaf]

HAVE NO FEAR, CONSERVATIVES!
Obama will simply delete a couple of million more people from the “Workforce” to ckear this little issue up!

Hope-n-Change and all that, doncha know!

[Texas Fossil]

The emotion I feel is not fear.

It is anger.

And it grows daily.

[The Sons of Liberty]

You are not alone!

[lacrew]

I think congress just did that...pulled the 99 weeks back to 73 weeks. This should ‘lower’ unemployment. The DOL website has a ‘Labor Participation Rate’, which bypasses all these variables. And, it says we are in 1980 territory. As scary as that is, the idea that the media is touting a ‘recovery’ scares me on an entirely different level.

[TwelveOfTwenty]

The U.S. unemployment rate, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 9.0% in mid-February, up from 8.6% for January.

That's the difference. If you read the reports on jobless claims that have come out of the MSM such as this one, you will usually see "seasonally-adjusted". Of course, they don't tell you the numbers without the seasonal adjustments.

[ClearCase_guy]

Desired result = actual figure + "seasonal adjustment"

Start on the Left, then work your way to the right. The math is always easy.

[Starboard]

“Based on same data without the lies.”

BLS = the Bureau of Lying Statistics

[Starboard]

“As scary as that is, the idea that the media is touting a ‘recovery’ scares me on an entirely different level.”

And it should. The MSM it totally corrupt. It is nothing more than a propaganda machine for the Democrats.

[duckman]

Not to worry, zero’s fuzzy math will have the unemployment rate below 8% by election.

[Starboard]

Of course, they don’t tell you the numbers without the seasonal adjustments.

---

The raw numbers are there but you have to dig a little for them. The most recent monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary (specifically Table B-1) shows that the actual (NOT seasonally adjusted) non-farm employment numbers are clearly declining:

Nov 133,172M

Dec 132,952M

Jan 130,263M

Note especially the sharp decline between Dec & Jan of about 2.7 million. But through the black magic of “seasonally adjusting” the numbers, the very same table shows employment RISING over those same months! Draw your own conclusions.

Ironically, the administration’s overeaching attempts to manipulate the U/E stats are backfiring on them. More and more people are now examining the numbers in greater detail than ever before. Not unlike resurgence of interest in reading the Constitution.

[RedMDer]

All contributions are for the
Current Quarter Expenses.

[Kaslin]

Only below 8%? They’ll have it down below 1% don’tcha know

[khelus]

And ... here’s something really infuriating, 125,000 new legal workers are brought into the US each month, for a total of 1.5 million per year.

The 4,550,000 low wage immigrant households not only suppress wages, but also are subsidized in the amount of ~$20,000 per year.

[tcrlaf]

“As scary as that is, the idea that the media is touting a ‘recovery’ scares me on an entirely different level.”

This same media convinced the Sheeple in 2006 that 4.6% Unemployment, and a 14,000 DOW under Bush was the “WORST ECONOMY SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION!”, remember?

[TwelveOfTwenty]

Here's the link to the B-1 table.

I don't know what's worse, that the numbers are clearly being cooked, or that judging from the stock market we're falling for it.