no.
The original PPP poll from a week ago has proven to be an outlier since they over polled evangelicals. They corrected that in this poll and that accounts for almost all of the shift in the numbers.
This newest PPP poll just brings PPP in line with all the other polls done of Michigan which show Santorum leading by about 5%
Predictable spin from the establishment. Other polls have Santorum maintaining his lead.
PPD’s poll from over a week ago was an outlier. It was the only poll that showed Santorum with a 15 point lead. Both Rasmussen and Detroit News showed it has a 3-5 point race with Santorum in the upper 30’s and Romney in the low 30’s.
This primary is STILL a “must win” for Romney, and it may be that he just can’t close the deal.
A brokered convention is becoming a very real possibility, calling in people who at the moment are NOT active candidates.
Sarah Palin, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, even Marco Rubio, may all be in play. And do not overlook a retread for Herman Cain.
May you live in interesting times. Why does that still sound like a curse?
Never believed the 15% lead anyway, but the amazing thing is that Romney is not walking away with MI where his dad was governor.
I am in the Newt camp, but I may have to hold my nose and pull the lever for Rick because I revile Romney.
Boy does this election cycle suck even worse than the last one...
They say money is the mother’s milk of politics, but if Mitt Romney can’t win the Michigan primary after spending $20 million against his poorly-financed opponent, that philosophy will go out the window — at least in presidential elections.
In fact, the money-equals-victory philosophy has been disproved time and again over the course of the Republican primary season. All Rick Perry’s and Jon Huntsman’s huge campaign war chests got them was an opportunity to enter the debates so they could show how awful they were. Meanwhile, the debates offered poor candidates the opportunity to soar at least briefly in the polls until being shot down by their opponents/MSM/DNC’s attacks. And now, the leader is the once-lowly, poorly funded, Rick Santorum.
State and local candidates, without the benefit of prime-time debates, do need campaign funds to make themselves known to prospective voters. However, it makes no sense to donate to presidential candidates. If Republicans focused their campaign dollars on helping state and local Republicans win elections instead of wasting it on presidential hopefuls, the country would be better off.
And PPP’s newest polling also shows today that Rick is up by 9 with Newt out of Michigan.
Plus fwiw, Nate Silver still says that Rick has a 72% chance to win Michigan when you look at all relevant scientific polling.
Willard’s 28% chance to win Michigan sounds good to me. We’ve got to bury the liberal in his own birth state.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/fivethirtyeight/primaries/michigan
More than likely the first poll was an outlier. Santorum’s numbers stayed at 39. Romney’s up to 35%. Most polls had Romney between 4-10. PPP’s last poll had it at 15. This brings PPP in line with the other polls.
