Secondly: Western human intelligence assets in and around Iran are few, and communications/electronic intercepts subject to various interpretation in the absence of validation by experienced and trustworthy eyes and ears within the region.
Even assuming the conclusion that Iran is not presently seeking a nuclear bomb is a correct one, it is abundantly clear that once the Iranians decided upon such an objective, it might be achieved in months, not years. Furthermore, other weapons might well be contemplated by Iran, including chemical and biological ones. The article is silent in consideration of such potential alternative threats.
Finally, what if Iran is using its shadowy nuclear program as cover for a darker plan: obtaining fully-functional nuclear weapons from allied elements in, say, Pakistan? Or from one of the former Soviet republics where much fissionable material "disappeared" sometime during the 1990s?
As you suggest, Iran is building long- and medium-range rockets for a reason. I would not trust desk-based analysts in Washington to conclusively tell us why.
Good points.
The NIE is a matter of record, by our best intel professionals. This is what they agree on, with reservations.
Our humint in Iran is getting better, but certainly Mossad leads here and shares with us.
I agree, they could enrich to 90% in months. Three cascades of 164 p-1 centrifuges each can take 20% to 90%, enough for one bomb per year. They say they have 18 cascades available now that could do so.
We’ve done an airtight op over the last 15 years to secure the former USSR’s nukes, OK, we bought them.
Pakistan won’t sell nukes, they are too afraid of India.
Iran’s nuke goal is not to use the nukes, but to sell them and their technology to any and all, the Burma’s, Venezuela’s, etc. The other goal is to show muslims that Shia’s are stronger than Sunni’s.
Iran wants to be the first homegrown muslim nuke power as Pakistan bought their centrifuges and know how from N Korea.
As far as missiles go, no one can predict a missiles flight trajectory that is determined only by the launch commander. None of our intel professionals are clairvoyant.