Posted on 03/02/2012 2:49:22 PM PST by Red Steel
Reports say that Mittens will be here Sunday. If so, I am hoping there will be heavy rains Sunday night, to cleanse the air before Newt gets here.
Read, voters, READ. Decide carefully and thoughtfully. We've got a decent shot coming up. Thomas Sowell is on my side, too! But then again, he reads stuff instead of assembling his knowledge of candidates from what others say the candidates are saying.
Woo-Hoo! YOU SEND HIM OUR PRAYERS BEST WISHES FROM JIM AND US AT FREE REPUBLIC!
GO NEWT!
This is good for Gingrich, but much better for Mitt Romney.
The previous Landmark poll was Gingrich 38, Santorum 25, Romney 19.
Assuming (because we have no way of knowing) that the district results would mirror statewide, but with a 15% random differentiation, one could guess that of the 14 districts, Gingrich would win 1 by 50%, win 12 by less than 50%, and Santorum would win 1 with Gingrich 2nd. Romney would have gotten 2nd in about 3 of the 14.
The total delegates: Gingrich 50, Santorum 23, Romney 3.
With the new poll, again we has to assume: Of the 14 districts, Newt would win 3 by 50%, and 11 by less than 50%. Santorum would beat Romney out for 2nd in 4, but at least one would be one of newt’s 50%. Romney would get 2nd in 10 of the districts.
Total delegates: Gingrich 54 (+4), Santorum 3, Romney 21.
Gingrich should feel good. Romney will be ecstatic. I’ll let the rest of you decide whether you are happy or not.
If that happened, Romney would still get over a 3rd of the delegates.
If Santorum could just take 3% from Romney, pushing him back below 20%, Gingrich would actually get more delegates statewide, than he would if Gingrich managed to get all Santorum’s delegates.
If on the other hand, Santorum’s votes split they way the have polled elsewhere, ROmney would get a bit more than half of the Santorum vote. So Gingrich would be right at about 50%, and Romney at 30%.
Here’s an interesting thing. Gingrich 42/Romney 22 gets Gingrich 23 delegates and Romney 11. But Gingrich 50/Romney 30 actually gets Gingrich 22 delegates, and Romney 12. So if Santorum dropped out and his vote split 50/50, Romney would actually GAIN a statewide delegate.
On the other hand, Gingrich would win more 50% districts.
So while under the current poll, the finals are (this is slightly different than in my last post, because I double-counted 1 district): Gingrich 54, Romney 19, Santorum 3.
If Santorum dropped out and split his votes 50/50: Gingrich 56, Romney 20.
So as you can see, Santorum dropping out would actually gain 1 delegate for Romney. Again, I’ll let you all decide if getting GIngrich 2 delegates would be worth getting Romney 1 more.
Note that what would really help Gingrich would be if he could get better than 50% in all the districts — because then Romney wouldn’t get any of the district delegates. And if Gingrich could also do so well that Romney got pushed below 20%, Romney would be shut out of statewide delegates.
Unfortunately, there’s no way that could happen. So while Gingrich benefits from a Santorum collapse, if your primary goal was to hold down Romney’s delegate count, these polls are BAD NEWS.
Print and take with you to give to Newt Gingrich!
Sounds like he has big problems in Ohio.
“...these polls are BAD NEWS.”
Momentum is never bad news.
I wish he had a few more states like that in his pocket.
A disaster for America.
I pray that this misguided, impulsive move to Santorum can be undone. We know it can happen, just look how McCain was completely written off in 3rd and 4th place during the entire first quarter of 2008. Then came on all of a sudden from virtually nowhere.
Only in Newt's case, we get a legitimate candidate with legitimate ability.
Good point. The changing big picture is always more important than static, snapshot numbers.
As I’ve read elsewhere, you need to pull at least 20% to get delegates in Georgia. Santorum may end up with a goose egg.
I was thinking the same when I read the article. When Newt saw that he didn't have much of a prayer in Michigan, he didn't even run ads there or campaign. He disappeared himself from the state to give Santorum a chance to do some damage to Romney in his so-called home state.
Now I just have to wonder why Santorum doesn't do the same in Georgia. Let Newt take as many delegates away from Romney as possible.
The refusal to do the right thing makes Santorum look weak and petty.
It is for trolls, moles and contrarians.
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