How Would Santorum Do Without Gingrich? (Could he have defeated Romney in some states?)

New York Times ^ | 03/08/2012 | Nate Silver

[SeekAndFind]

One of the reasons to be skeptical that Rick Santorum could win the Republican nomination is that we now have a pretty good idea of how the vote will play out from state to state — and the coalition that he is building seems short of a majority.

It is not that Mr. Santorum’s delegate deficit is mathematically insurmountable. But he’s behind, and he is very unlikely to win states like New Jersey and California that either have a lot of delegates or use winner-take-all rules to award them. That might not leave enough fertile opportunities for him to gain delegates. If you go through the states one by one and make some reasonably optimistic assumptions about how Mr. Santorum might perform in each one based on their demographics, and then apply the delegate rules in each state, you’ll find it very challenging to come up with a plan in which he wins a majority of delegates, let alone a plurality of them.

So what Mr. Santorum needs instead is some kind of change in the underlying conditions of the race. Not just one where he starts to win marginal states (say, Illinois and Wisconsin) by a point or two instead of lose them (as he did in Michigan and Ohio). That doesn’t actually make all that much difference in the delegate math. He needs something more fundamental than that.

There is one obvious candidate: what if Newt Gingrich were to drop out of the race? This is hardly so far-fetched. Mr. Gingrich had a poor Super Tuesday, and his advisers have said that Mississippi and Alabama, which vote next Tuesday, are “must-wins” for him. Indeed, the main competition in these states might be between Mr. Santorum and Mr. Gingrich, with Mr. Romney likely to finish in third place

[SeekAndFind]

WHAT IF QUESTION:

If Newt Gingrich dropped out, how many of his supporters would go to Mr. Santorum? It is hard to know for sure and it might depend in part on whether Mr. Gingrich endorsed Mr. Santorum.

We can also ask : If Santorum dropped out, how many of his supporters would go to Newt? It is hard to know for sure and it might depend in part on whether Santorum endorsed Newt.

In other words, who has the better chance if it were simply a 3 way race:

SANTORUM, ROMNEY and PAUL

or

GINGRICH, ROMNEY and PAUL ?

[Leep]

I don’t know about now but had he dropped out prior to Iowa, when Willard was playing dirty on Girngrich, Santorum would have been history a long time ago.

[TomGuy]

The difference is that Santurom has won more than 2 states and he has places 2nd in more of the others than Gingrich has.

Right now, Gingrich is the hucka-hanger-on that is causing the conservative vote to be split.

In other news, Santorum does not have the political structure in some states.

Some time after SuperTuesday, more states become winner-take-all. Thus, placing or showing doesn’t even get a delegate. That UPs the game.

[livius]

Santorum would have had no chance without Gingrich, because he would have been on Willard’s hit-list, but Willard considered him too unimportant to bother with. Santorum only got where he did because of the destruction wreaked by Romney (with Santorum’s help, I will add) on Perry and Gingrich.

As for Gingrich voters, I honestly don’t think most of them would go to Santorum. The man has no ideas, an unlikeable persona, and is just as big-government, nanny-state as Romney. So I don’t know where they’d go.

[livius]

You do know that Gingrich has many more delegates than Santorum, don’t you?

[McGruff]

I'll take Gingrich over Santorum any day.

[Craigon]

“How Would Santorum Do Without Gingrich”

I’ll ask the same question only in reverse. :)

[joesbucks]

You do know that Gingrich has many more delegates than Santorum, don’t you?

Not according to the WSJ

Mitt 419 Delegates

Rick 178 Delegates

Newt 107 Delegates

Ron 47 Delegates

http://projects.wsj.com/campaign2012/delegates

[j.argese]

Total agreement.
I won’t vote for either Romney or Santorum. One of the few benefits of living in the N.J.S.S.R.

[Vigilanteman]

Big delegate states like New York, California, Massachusetts and Illinois are, for the most part, irrelavant in a general election because they are automatic Democrat electoral votes unless you are talking about a once in a generation type blowout like Reagan's 1984 re-election.

Yeah, they need some delegates to keep them interested with additional delegates awarded if they adopt a congressional district allocation system similar to what is used in Maine and Nebraska.

Or simply grant them a certain minimum number such as given to American Samoa or Guam, plus a multiplier times the actual number of electoral votes they delivered for the GOP candidate over the last 4 or 5 presidential election cycles. If they have a new congressional district allocation system in place, then they can use what they would have won had that system been in place in previous election cycles.

[TomGuy]

You do know that Gingrich has many more delegates than Santorum, don’t you?

You must be using the New Fuzzy Math.

According to CNN website:

• Romney 429,
  
• Santorum 169,
  
• Gingrich 118,
  
• Paul 67.

When I was in school -- old, traditional math -- 169 was more than 118.

[Bikkuri]

Newt is the last in line for me.. I had said I would stop at Cain... but I stretched a bit further to the center for Newt.. no more. If Newt doesn’t get it, then I am writing in Palin for the Primary AND General.

No More Big Govt. ... No More Union supporting pols..

[TomGuy]

Ohio

Romney 38%
Santorum 37%
Gingrich 15%

==

How many Gingrich votes would have gone to each: Romney and Santorum?

In all probability, Ohio would have turned out to be a big win for Santorum without Gingrich in the race. That could have off-set the walk-away Romney got in Virginia.

[C. Edmund Wright]

You make some very valid points....

[Proud2BeRight]

If Santorum and Gingrich don't get together and form a POTUS & VP arrangement, the next GOP candidate will be the Massachusetts liberal and the GOP can kiss another four years goodbye.

[moehoward]

Just sayin’....

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R

[SatinDoll]

Newt Gingrich has more “hard” delegates than Santorum.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/

“Hard” Delegates
Need to Nominate 1,144
(available)1,762
W Romney 302
N Gingrich 96
R Santorum 79
Uncommitted 29
R Paul 16
J Huntsman 2
Total 2,286

Santorum has not been organized or had the money to pre-plan for primaries. So he goes in a wins in a state, such as in Ohio, and because he didn’t get his delegates dedicated BEFORE the primary, all those delegates go to Romney. Gingrich had done the work and unfortunately it appears that Santorum is working to be Romney’s VP.

[SatinDoll]

Santorum will not work with Gingrich.

[itsahoot]

WHAT IF QUESTION:

Newt's votes would go 100% for Romney.

Santorum's votes would go 100% for Newt.

Is that what you are trying to say? God help us survive this drivel.

[Proud2BeRight]

“Santorum will not work with Gingrich.”

Then we better get used to another four years of Obama when the conservatives (like me) refuse to vote for the flip-flopping Massachusetts liberal.

I personally pledge to NEVER again vote in any election at any level of government for the “lesser of two evils” when the “lesser” is nothing but another establishment Republican RINO.