Posted on 03/16/2012 7:57:55 AM PDT by parksstp
Chicago - The Republican race for president looks like a two-man contest in Illinois Thursday night.
Mitt Romney is ahead of Rick Santorum among Illinois Republicans, even after Santorum’s big victories in Alabama and Mississippi on Tuesday. But Santorum is within striking distance for next Tuesday's primary.
An exclusive FOX Chicago News poll found a six point lead for Romney among those likely to vote in the March 20 presidential primary.
Romney had the support of 37 percent on Wednesday. Rick Santorum earned 31 percent of the vote.
(Excerpt) Read more at myfoxchicago.com ...
Gee, I did not know there were 14 Republicans in Chicago!
It could make for a good convention floor fight. I expect one if Romney can’t reach at least 1180 delegates (Florida and Arizona will be challenged).
Romney’s a phoney!
I’m a Mitt guy. But Newt shoulld get out.Let Mitt and Rick duke it out and I will enthusiastically to vote for either candidate in the election.
Willard should not have been in a Republican race to begin with. If anyone has screwed up things it is Barack McBomney. Certainly not Gingrich.
Be careful what you wish for.
Remember that if Newt drops out, EVERY one of his delegates becomes a free agent, free to vote for whomever they want.
The GOP-E and Team Romney will be at the door of every single one of those delegates, promising them influence, jobs, positions, and future support. They will have bottomless wallets, and all of the party machinery to back-up those promises.
In other words, do you really want to wake-up after the IL Primary and see Romney with over 750 committed delegates?
Rick Santorum has said it himself: the key is a brokered convention; neither he nor Newt can get to 1144.
Also not Bachmann, not Cain, and not Perry... but Rinostablishmentarian and fake conservative Willack McBomney.
Then it will all depend how the districts are divided. If no district has Romney between 30% and 50%, then the vote-splitting between Newt and Rick won't make a difference. There would be no way to defeat Romney in the 50%+ districts and one of our guys would already beating him in his 30%- districts. But if any district represents the spread in this poll or another spread where Romney is between 30-45%, then our vote splitting will hand him delegates. If he continues being able to get half the delegates from big states like this (and Pennsylvania, West Virginia, California, Texas, Wisconsin, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana), then there's probably no path to stopping him from winning the nomination by June.
Wouldn't that happen at a brokered convention too? They can't win unless they can hold onto their delegates after they become free agents.
Rick Santorum has said it himself: the key is a brokered convention; neither he nor Newt can get to 1144.
The problem is Mitt's on his way to 1,144 without a game changer in this race. If we can mind control everyone to vote for Santorum instead of Newt, then we can win if he stays in, but that's the only way. 2/3rds of the upcoming delegates are subject to winner-take-all rules...about 800. If Ross Perot-style vote splitting causes us to lose any to Romney, then he's going to hit 1,144. We can just barely deny him the nomination if we win in every single moderate/swing state/district where vote-splitting is putting us at risk.
I agree with your take on how well Santorum is doing considering he’s being outspent six or more to one in most states.
And this despite so many top level Republican leaders coming out for Romney.
Folks are braving a very strong headwind, to go in Santorum’s direction.
If what you say is true about 1,144 delegates for Romney..then what does it matter if a single candidate (Satorum according to your analysis/) or if Santorum and Gingrich double team Romney and deprive him of reaching 1,144 delegates?
I agree with your thoughts, and it bothers me that a candidate would play into this eventuality. I was prepared to call on Santorum to drop out after last Tuesday if he lost those primaries.
Romney MUST NOT get our nomination. I could vote for Newt if he prevailed, but it’s not going to happen. Be the bigger man. Save your efforts for 2016 if you don’t want to give your goal to be president.
No honest Republican can dominate over the Illinois Dead Vote,
The Vaporous Chicago Ballot Box,
The Ghost of Daleys Past,
The Prison Reunion of Illinois Governors,
The 24 Volume Partial Cyclopedia of Indicted Illinois Public Servants...
NH set the course for the awful results since.
The IL elite don’t care how a Republican primary turns out. Such primaries are meaningless there with so many wall-to-wall liberals. But 37-31-14 says it all, and it must be discouraging for Santorum to go through the motions. At least he will get a broad look at IL, but I think he lived there in boyhood.
So let me understand this. From what it seems the best chance of beating Romney is to keep Newt IN the race, to ensure that we go to a brokered convention.
However....If that happens, won’t the GOP establishment just hand the nomination to Mittens anyway?
Read no further 37-31-14 is the recipe for conservative disaster.
Chicago would NEVER vote for a true conservative. Rino #1 in first; rino #2 in second. Your are talking Obamaland
Perot? well let me tell you one thing..Bush 41 was not the conservative we hoped for..read my lips. This is America and Newt should and will stay in..Newt already helped Santorum win one election...the gop revolution when Newt was speaker.
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