Posted on 03/16/2012 10:25:50 PM PDT by AmericanInTokyo
Rush-- w/out translation.
Japan is threatening North Korea with deploying and activating its own Missile Defense (MD) system, and shooting down the North Korean ICBM test launched scheduled from between 12 April and 16 April, a move stunningly announced by Pyongyang news sources yesterday and creating considerable tension in Northeast Asia suddenly.
No time to do an English translation now but am linking the breaking Japan story in Japanese. Will synopsize later, but wanted to get the thread and linked article up ASAP.
Sounds like a TOO (Target of Opportunity). Great chance to get some real world testing done, cheap.
Ballistic missiles actually reach much higher altitudes at apogee than the satellite that was shot down.
And satellites have more predictable trajectories.
A couple of things are worth noting here with respect to the Japanese reports of earlier today, now that I have read them more in full. They state that if the DPRK ICBM launch comes anywhere “near threatening Japanese territory”, or “towards Japanse territory”, then they will consider shooting it down in an act of self defense for Japan, which they are fully authorized to do now under Japan Defense Ministry rules of engagement guidelines which are in place and are Constitutional (under the coverage of “act of self defense”), i.e. they do not conflict with General MacArthur’s “Article 9”. Tokyo made such statements in April of 2009 when the North also launched a Taepodong 2 over Japan. They are particularly looking for any missile launched “at” or “toward” Japanese terittory. Any missile or part of same which came near Japan and was within striking distance either by the PAC-3 or the AEGIS destroyers, could theoretically be taken down. The discussions are starting internally, by the Ministry of Defense as well as the Foreign Ministry, in advance of this possible launch, and so that there are no surpises. Where and when to deploy such systems is not yet decided. Of course considering on the altitude and speech of an ascending missile, hitting it with commonly known Japanese arsenal would be difficult, I would imagine that even if successful, certainly US military and Japanese Self Defense would keep it hushed up, but Chinese naval forces in the Pacific Ocean operating in the area of Ryukyu Islands or elsewhere might pick up such an action and pass it to the North Koreans. North Korean direct intelligence in that region of the Pacific is extremely limited and so would be their grasp of the details of one of there missiles being met by MD system. It is obviously talk to put additional pressure on the North Koreans, but there was a similiar case two years ago, where Obama stated he would NOT instruct US military to shoot down such a missile, and from that point on, I feel the Japanese defense establishment knows they are on their own vs North Korea and that the long alliance with the US is very shaky under this Obama individual. Yes, many, many people in the know and in senior positions strongly hope for a defeat of Obama in November and complete reshuffling and cleaning out of the US DOD, State Department, intelligence and other agencies, with the curren office holders and policy makers in DC, probably not a few of them actual national security risks working behind closed, security cleared limited access areas.
Please note my most recent comments. It also appears, at least the North says, they are going to open this mid April “satellite” (BS, it is an ICBM test) launch up to international observers and some press. One wonders if it is just a marketing show for Iranian customers. We shall see. At any rate, one wonders if an AEGIS in international waters off the coast of North Korea (well off the coast, in the Western side in the Yellow sea), could hit this missile up on ascent from Pyongan Region, or if distance from AEGIS to missile would be problematic, and if that in and of itself would be viewed by North Korea as an act of war upon the DPRK.
Hopefully you can join us over here! If not too busy.
I think it would be very interesting if the missile blew up on the launch pad.
Thank you!
I disagree- I think that obama CAN be relied on, 100%, to do whatever is in the WORST interests of the USA and it's allies. He is an enemy of the Constitution of the US, and it's citizenry.
China could dangle some considerably tasty bait to lure the Japanese out of the American alliance. Would they be willing to? Would the Japanese go for it? Ask me again in November.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Maybe the Government of Japan would be willing. But I know the Japanese people on the street regard the Chinese with a
considerable amount of distrust and distaste. The people of Japan would never go for it.
A war with N. Korea is my worst nightmare. I have 2 grandsons living on the West coast of Japan.I have been telling my son to come home for 3 years. At least he has a bolt plan.
I believe war between Japan and North Korea is inevitable because China has neutralized the USA, and China is very much behind North Korea's conduct.China wants Japan to return to the Pan Asiatic fold, in which ALL Asian nations pay tribute to China.China wants the USA OUT of Asia.Obama is so weak that China will move the otherwise slow process of getting the USA out of Asia , a LOT faster.
The weak make things very difficult for Japan:
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2012/03/17/0401000000AEN20120317001200315.HTML
Don’t know if this has been reported yet, but the launch date is scheduled for April 15th.
The missile would reach an altitude of about 100km when over Japan, so unlikely their ABM system would work.
NK considers a launch to be an SLV (space launch vehicle) rather than a LRBM (long range ballistic missile). NK has a point here as they are signatories to the Outer Space Treaty that allows all countries unfettered access to outer space:
Outer Space Treaty, Article 1 wording: “Outer space … shall be free for exploration and use by all States without discrimination of any kind, on a basis of equality …”. Both US and DPRK are parties to the Outer Space Treaty.
North Korea does not consider space-launch rockets to be missile weapons, neither does Israel.......
Not as much as you might think. Not anymore. Depending on who you talk to, there is almost as many Mandarin classes being offered by neighborhood schools as there are English. Lots of young Chinese couples are visiting Japan for tourism and vice-versa.
In the past, the Beijing government subsidized the anti-Japanese sentiment in China — but only as a way to blow off steam and direct people’s anger at an outside source. They could probably turn it most of it off just as easily.
I’ve been in Japan for 25 years, and if there is one thing that still surprises me is how fast they can react, as a nation, to a catalytic change. Played right, there could be a newly found deeply blossoming friendship between Japan and China. The seeds are already there.
The deeply patriotic nationalists on both sides would squawk like hell, but in Japan they make up a relatively small fraction of the population and nobody pays much attention to them anyhow.
The Japanese would have a long list of demands — some of which would be politically dangerous for Beijing to consider, but they might actually be able to convince their public that the benefits outweigh the concessions. That list would include acknowledgement of Japanese sovereignty over the Senkaku Islands (and the resulting exclusive economic zone), no interference with Japanese continued defense buildups, concrete Chinese action to contain and neutralize North Korea and an end to the continuous demands for apologies related to WWII.
If, in exchange for all that, Japan were to kick the United States completely out of Okinawa, Sasebo, Yokosuka and Misawa — while allowing a face-saving base to continue existing at Yokota, they could effectively push the US out of the entire Southeast Asian area, reinforce world perceptions of peaceful benevolent hegemony and begin expanding their influence up through the Straits of Malacca into the Bay of Bengal and even the Indian Ocean.
If Japan were to come to terms with China, do you think any other the ASEAN nations are going to be able to say no? Even Singapore and Thailand would have to come to terms with the thought of China as the senior partner and regional peacekeeper.
So don’t dismiss the idea out of hand. If both sides decided to make it happen, it could happen faster than you think.
Those “international observers “ would be hostages / shields to guard against a launch pad “malfunction “.
China wants Taiwan back first, before it makes other stupid moves. They make this point regularly/repeatedly via their commentary on their own TV channel CCTV9. They won’t take direct action against anyone else unless it is coupled, at least, with a move on Taiwan-—but Taiwan has a lot of its own bite so the Chicoms are laying groundwork very patiently.
Of all the countries in the world who I suspect would totally ignore Obama and anything he ‘demands’, Japan would top the list.
Even Israel will give him lip service before doing what they need to, but I think Japan would just tell him to pound salt if they said anything at all. And I cannot imagine, with their history and traditions, they consider him anything but pond scum.
I think the Japs don't like losing face. I doubt they would make such a threat unless their technical people thought they could do it. It will be interesting to see what happens.
So don’t dismiss the idea out of hand. If both sides decided to make it happen, it could happen faster than you think.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I agree with you about change and how it could happen easily with Japans maleable populace. But I still am surprised by the dislike and distrust ordinary Japanese have for Chinese people. I saw it first hand.
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