Playing Old Cold War Games

The government repeated assurances that it would continue military cooperation with Syria. Several hundred Russian personnel are building facilities for the Russian Navy at the Syrian port of Tartus and Russia continues to deliver weapons and military equipment to Syria. State controlled media blames outsiders for the violence in Syria. This programming is similar to the kind of stuff the old Soviet Union constantly used during the Cold War, blaming the West, and especially the United States, for all the world's ills. But most of the world blames the decades old Assad dictatorship for the problems in Syria and condemns Russia for blocking UN action to support the popular rebellion there. The Arab League, in particular, is very critical of Russia. This will cost Russia (arms sales and business opportunities) in the future.

Thanks U-238. But au contraire, the Russians have been losing client state after client state since 1973, when Egypt dumped ‘em like a load of rotting fish. Saddam was another important client, and customer for their fine line of military products, and now, not so much. The Russians helped engineer the fall of the Shah, then the jihadists turned coat on them, then the Russians said, release our captives or we’ll nuke your sorry asses.

We had Carter, so...

The Russians don’t trust the Iranians, and vice versa, but neither can afford to be choosy.

The probable outcome in the middle-term will be an alliance between India and Iran, and between them they’ll carve up Central Asia, creating a bloc that stands on its own, and has a non-alliance (not allied, but not hostile either) with Russia, and against the Chinese. This will last until Iran does something stupid against India’s interests.

The Turks are the cork in the bottle. They’ll remain the odd man out on all their frontiers, at least after the dismantling of the Assad regime, which will probably happen before the end of this year (maybe before the end of summer).

The Gulf States will be involved in the civil wars in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, until the Iranian proxies are defeated and destroyed. They’re also behind the mess in Yemen, and are heavily involved in the so-called Arab Spring in north Africa. Since the financing comes from rich a-holes in those countries, they can be said to be using al-Qaeda as proxies in the Sahel of Africa, and wherever they still operate in Central Asia, and in Europe.

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