I don’t see Kaine winning, despite Allen’s flaws as a candidate. At this stage, very few people in the Old Dominion are focused on this race. By late summer, with gas well over $4.00 a gallon throughout the state, all George has to do is keep linking Kaine to Obama and the economic misery that everyone will be feeling at that time. Under those conditions, there aren’t enough “blue” voters in the D.C. suburbs to put Tim over the top.
One good test of Obama’s coattails or lack thereof will be whether Kaine wants Obama to be on the campaign trail with him. Nelson of FL avoided being on stage with Obama when he visited FL.
I don't know.... A lot of 'funny' things tend to happen within a few of those precincts, very very late, on election night.
>> there aren’t enough “blue” voters in the D.C. suburbs to put Tim over the top <<
Agreed. And I’d add at least three points:
1. The “purple” voters of Fairfax County went for the GOP in the last gubernatorial election, in 2009. No sign that they’ve developed a sudden love for the Dhims, and they still seem to like McDonnell. They are also exactly the kind of “moderates” and independents whom Romney will attract, thereby helping Allen.
2. Webb took many votes from these groups: the Vietnamese, the Navy/Marine Corp folks in Hampton Roads, and the “Scotch-Irish” of the Valley and SW Virginia. Kaine lacks the special appeal Webb had to these voters, and their return to the GOP will easily give Allen more than the 5000-or-so vote margin by which he lost in 2006.
3. The Washington Post will be so busy defending Obama that they won’t have the time or space to mount another “Maccaca” campaign againt Allen!
We talked about this at church tonight. We all agreed that we would pay $4.00 a gallon to get rid of the socialist pig.