Obama Wins Close or Loses Big (O will be either a narrow winner or big loser in November 2012)

American Thinker ^ | 04/25/2012 | J. Robert Smith

[SeekAndFind]

President Barack Obama: narrow winner or big loser in November. Presidential election history gives us indications that Mr. Obama either squeaks back into the White House or gets an undignified boot in the back of his designer trousers. In modern presidential elections, only Jerry Ford lost his re-election bid narrowly. Odds are, if Mr. Obama loses, it will probably be on the order of Hoover (1932) or Carter (1980).

If Mr. Obama wins, it's closer to George W. Bush's re-election in 2004. But the conditions are dramatically different in the country from 2004, and not to Mr. Obama's advantage.

A narrow win by Mr. Obama would be thanks to bungling by Mitt Romney and the Republicans, because based on the president's record alone, Mr. Obama has richly earned a pink slip from voters.

The Obama presidency is a big, fat failure, despite all the spin emanating from the White House, Democrat flaks, and the left's petting-zoo media. Americans are living Mr. Obama's economic failure daily; their dreary experiences (or those of family and neighbors) cut right through the liberal-manufactured smoke and fog.

Campaigns of distraction distract only monetarily.

Incumbents are always about their performances, their records. A politician up for re-election is a referendum-in-the-making; an up or down vote by the electorate. That's the core strategic consideration of Romney's General Election campaign.

In a referendum election, all Mr. Romney has to do is satisfy voters that he's competent, advocates sensible remedies to the nation's economic dilemma, and plans to stop Uncle Sam's profligate spending and not raise taxes. Romney is well-suited to accomplish all three aims. Romney's character hasn't been an issue through a grueling intraparty vetting; it shouldn't be one in the General Election, despite anticipated efforts by Mr. Obama's team and the left to do so.

[ScottinVA]

I remember the Reagan landslide in 1980. About this time in the process, Carter was ahead by 30 points! And what happened on election day? Hmmmmmmmm?

I get all that... but we don't have a Reagan now, and today's America bears little resemblance to the one that elected him in 1980.

[ExSoldier]

today's America bears little resemblance to the one that elected him in 1980.

Granted but actually, conditions in this country are also far WORSE than they were in 1980. I think that the vast majority of Americans will vote the pain they feel in their wallets, be that pain at the gas pumps, through job loss, belt tightening and having to do far more with far less or a combination of the above, it's going to be far more potent than it was for Ronnie. Remember, too Reagan started out in politics as a Democrat. So have a number of prominent Republicans. I think Mitt has a durn good chance of a blowout. One honest man one honest ANONYMOUS vote. That's what took Jimmy Peanut down. When the curtains shut or the ballot is in the machine, folks are anonymous and can vote how they really feel. People are REALLY hurting now and I'll bet it gets worse by November.