Skip to comments.Real Clear Politics: General Election: Romney vs. Obama (RCP Avg Obama +4.1
Posted on 04/25/2012 6:24:02 AM PDT by xzins
|Poll||Date||Sample||Obama (D)||Romney (R)||Spread|
|RCP Average||4/11 - 4/23||--||47.7||43.6||Obama +4.1|
|National Journal||4/19 - 4/22||1004 A||47||39||Obama +8|
|Rasmussen Tracking||4/21 - 4/23||1500 LV||44||48||Romney +4|
|Gallup Tracking||4/19 - 4/23||2200 RV||49||42||Obama +7|
|NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl||4/13 - 4/17||RV||49||43||Obama +6|
|CBS News/NY Times||4/13 - 4/17||852 RV||46||46||Tie|
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
RCP Average is worthless since they include outliers that heavily skew the results
Rassmussen and Gallup are the two to keep an eye on. The others are mostly junk.
Yay. One America-hating, Israel-insulting Marxist beating another.
Averaging Gallup and Rasmussen still gives Obama +3
It’s still early, and the national poll is never the real issue. The issue is the state polls since electoral college votes determine the presidency.
Also, for the most part I prefer the likely voter polls to the registered voter polls, but this early in the campaign, there’s plenty of time for events to change registered into likely.
But, the bottom line for me is that the media has been bending over backward to make Romney look good, Obama is in a bad run with scandals all over the place, and he is still ahead to even.
It doesn’t look good for Romney
It is hard to believe that this is the guy the republicans have stuck themselves with
What do you suggest we do then?
It doesnt look good for Romney
That is inaccurate. It actually looks very promising for Romney....not a single one of those pools has the incumbent cracking 50%...not even the ones that have skewed samples.
If this were a conservative republican incumbent that I was really pulling for, I’d be worried.
America will fail just as surely under the slow drip of Socialism Lite as it will under the hangman’s noose of Marxism.
Thanks a bunch Mitt. You put personal ambition ahead of anything else and will screw us all one way or the other.
And one I have personally been told....”At least he’s going to overturn Obamacare.”
Actually, the only one of these (don’t know about this most recent one) that measures LIKELY voters has Romney ahead.
He is not my boy.
and spare me - you think Saint Rick or newt would be doing beter?
Yes or no?
Exactly... conservatives loudly warned against nominating Romney, but were ignored.
Romney has no chance; he never did. He knows it and the Repub elites know it.
Yes. I think Santorum would fare far better against Obama because he was an actual opposition candidate.
McCain stood a better chance against Romney even before picking Palin. Romney is going to lose and lose big.
Newt or Santorum or Perry were attacked so viciously by their own guy, Romney, that it’s impossible to say how they would be doing.
The lies told about the other candidates, and the misrepresentations and lies about himself, mean that Romney has stuck republicans in intramural warfare, suspicion, and ambivalence.
He has split his party, he has sapped it of drive, and the turnout numbers prove it.
In my short 40 years I’ve never seen the Republicans blow such a wonderful opportunity to contrast themselves against the radical anti-Semitic race baiting communist who is now the standard of the Democrat party. They blew it before it even started, all for Thomas Dewey II. (And I’m being rude to Dewey because he had twice the charisma of Romney.)
Rush Limbaugh nailed it when he pointed out that Romney is winning liberal areas that will go to Obama in the fall.
I myself have noticed his insulting condescending tone and its going to cost us.
go to the interactive electoral college map here
play with it a bit and the dilemma that Romney poses becomes evident
Why would NC and Wisconsin, and even Florida, go for Romney this time, when he is just another Obama liberal?
I’m beginning to think that the republican party blew it with open primaries and state control of ballot access.
Since the party is a private organization, they would do much better with an in-house system.
Virginia, for example, never should have been a race between only Romney and Paul. Folks have a bitter taste in their mouths over stuff like that.
When your own people can’t get on the ballot but outsiders can vote in your primary, that just screams irrationality.
The REALITY of the situation is that its Myth or Obama.
I don’t like it and voted for Ron Paul in NYS primary yesterday myself.
I just want thugbama out of office, even if it takes jack the ripper or joran vandersloot to do it.
“They blew it before it even started, all for Thomas Dewey II. (And Im being rude to Dewey because he had twice the charisma of Romney.)”
He still does. And yes, I know he is a moldering corpse.
Don’t bet on it. I know some liberals that voted for the Kenyan but can’t stand him now, but they love the also liberal Mittens.
but outsiders can vote in your primary, that just screams irrationality.
But.... but..... but.....
Where are all the folks who, six months’ back, were posting (to the effect):
“Heck, my dog could beat Obama!” ????
Where’d they go?
They have a worthless “Adult” poll boosting Obama, and leave out the 3 polls of likely voters showing Romney ahead.
Ras has Romney up 5 as of 4/25:
“The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney earning 49% of the vote, while President Obama attracts support from 44%. Three percent (3%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another four percent (4%) are undecided.
Here’s another on FR by Gallup that has Obama up by 7 with a 50% approval rating
“Obama Now at 50% Job Approval; Leads Romney, 49% to 42% (Gallup)”
Mittens isn’t destroying Barry as predicted is he?
“He should be far ahead at this point if he was going to win against Obama.”
He is. Romney is 5 points up against Obama in Rasmussen poll.
Thats the ONLY likely voter poll out there.
The other polls are pollaganda to boost Obama.
“Obama will wipe the floor with him...”
If you dont want to see it happen, stop being so defeatist and work to stop it from happening.
If you DO want it, stop whining - Enjoy your next 4 years of a socialist President who will send the US to the dogs.
GIGO. Your premise is wrong.
LOL ... “registered voters” ... in likely voter polls, Romney has led. other RV polls show it even, but the undecided usually break for challengers. Even Gallup had Romney ahead laste week, they are famous for havign a lot of jitter.
If you WANT Obama to win, and are overjoyed with the idea of 4 more years of Obama, you could try to get some comfort in these polls.
But really, not good for obama.
The polls are showing the incumbent cant crack 50%. Intenrals in polls show massive erosion in key groups like young voters that obama cant lose. Well, even Carter was above 50% in early 1980.
Obama cant even do that.
Nobody predicting Obama would get ‘destroyed’ in April. The prediction is this:
Obama has the worst economic record of any president in our lifetimes and will be fired in November.
Romney will do a much better job on the budget, economy, and a host of issues than Obama. So he’ll get hired.
Again, if you are really feeling sad at the thought of Obama the incompetent marxist getting fired in November, hang on to these bogus pollaganda polls - that’s what they are designed to do, keep the liberals’ confidence up. It’s false and not the real situation. In reality, Obama’s in big heap trouble and is likely going down. Romney will probably beat Obama.
As posted on the Gallup thread:
Generally, I agree that likely voters is better than registered voters, but since we are still 6 months away from the election, there will be hundreds of reasons for simply registered to move into the likely camp.
IIRC, likely voter points are given for both voting in the most recent election and responses to questions.
Gallups website, for example, says it factors in prior voting and voter intention. http://www.gallup.com/poll/111124/Gallup-Daily-Likely-Voters-Traditional.aspx
If you didnt vote in the mid-term or the off-term, then you would lose points there. And if you said TODAY that youre not interested, that doesnt mean you wont be interested in August.
In short, those numbers change the closer you get to an election.
The point, of course, is we’ve been told that Romney is “most electable”. That he’ll clean Obama’s clock. That he’s got what we need to lead the nation. Blah, blah, blah.
All from the GOP-E.
Reality looks entirely different. As mentioned in my previous post “likely voters” increases in value the closer you get to the election.
At this point, we know that the universe of those already legally able to vote is favoring Obama over Romney. Even that number could change, since there’s still plenty of time to register for an election 6 months away.
FWIW, Romney’s an ultra-liberal. The best that could be said of him is that’s he’s another evil, but maybe the lesser of 2 evils. Some think the ruination he brings for a generation to the republican party actually makes him the greater of 2 evils.
When both candidates are so ideologically close, Obama wins because he’s the “Devil You Know.”
I would suggest you get ready for the boom to be lowered by Obama. He will have four years to finalize his destruction of America. He knows he only has these four years. He will go wild. The only way to stop or slow him down is the RINOs to take the Senate and stop him. I don’t believe Romnie is going to beat him.
I’m voting for a real conservative, Virgil Goode of the Constitution Party.
Pro-Best Defense in the world
Pro-Americans Get Jobs Before Illegals
Pro-Americans Secure in the Persons and Papers
“Newt or Santorum or Perry were attacked so viciously ...”
Yup. And this wouldnt have happened at 10X the level in the general election?
It’s called “vetting”.
Most of the worst nasty things said were by liberal mouthpieces in the media, and they would have ramped it up even more.
Heck, my dog could beat Obama! ????
“Whered they go?”
I think Obama ate the dog.
I am considering casting a vote for Goode, as well...I agree with him on just about everything...
Look, if it makes you feel all so much better that Obama will have a second term based on these early RV polls that show him barely hitting 50% against a guy who is just now getting the nomination ... feel that way.
I wouldnt want to bust your bubble of joy over Obama inevitably beating Romney.
But it’s just not reality.
Obama’s in big trouble and deservedly so. He’s done a lousy job and Romney will do a better job and voters will fire Obama.
I’m going to agree that this is what would happen in the general election, but it’s not what should happen in the primary.
The primary election is the vehicle for a PRIVATE organization, the republican party, to determine their BEST candidate to put in the general election.
In fact, I don’t believe in primaries at all. The caucus idea, restricted to party members, is the loosest that a party should permit the selection of their candidate to become.
I actually favor the original constitutional process for selecting a president.
So, no. I don’t think it is the responsibility of the candidates and the party to lie about other candidates. I consider it a disqualifier.
Just remember that the republican party is a PRIVATE organization that is no place mentioned in the US Constitution, nor is ANY party, and you will see the absurdity of boards of election controlling anything about a party nomination system.
Let’s Shake the System!
Vote Against Force-Fed Candidates!
Vote for a real conservative.
“The point, of course, is weve been told that Romney is most electable. That hell clean Obamas clock.”
We won’t know that until November, so you cant claim its definitely false until then.
Romney has tended to be strongest in the head-to-head polls, but so what.
You seem to be more caring about what the GOP-E thinks than about the country. that’s a great way to waste time and energy, worrying about insiders who are clueless anyway. I dont give a flip what the GOP-E thinks or claims, I want what’s best for the country. We should have had a better primary candidate than Romney, but we didnt get one. So be it. Either you decide to work to defeat Obama or you dont.
If it makes you feel good to spite the future of the country to tweak the nose of the GOP-E, and attack the GOP nominee, I cant make you do differently. All I can say is the intraparty fighting doesnt add up to a hill of beans when balanced against what’s at stake with the country.
“Some think the ruination he [Romney] brings for a generation to the republican party actually makes him the greater of 2 evils.”
Some people are idiots. The is a vast difference between Obama and Romney, and we cannot afford more of Obama. You can pretend or say otherwise but deep down you know that is true, no matter what names you call Romney.
More Kagans on the court, more tax increases, Obamacare enshrined and controlling 1/7th of our economy, $6 trillion in new debt in 4 years, etc.
Care about your country first, and party second.
Our country needs to fire Obama. That’s why I am “Anyone But Obama”.
The good news for America is that most voters know wee are on the wrong track and want to do better.
It doesnt look good for Romney
...I would say it looks rather dire for him...unless something unusual happens, his political career is nearing its end...
From your tagline: "Virgil Goode 2012"
The irony. It hurts.
The 3rd party Nader voters in 2000 didnt get a Green guy in the White House, they helped Bush win.
Voting 3rd party is an open invitation to let liberals decide who goes in the white house.
“We absolutely must get Barack Obama out of office before he does even more damage to the Republic.”
That’s why I’m voting for a true conservative, Virgil Goode of the Constitution Party.
Principle over Party any day of the week, and especially when the party is promoting evil.
Make no mistake...abortion is evil.
So you will instead enable an obama victory - just brilliant.