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Bush’s reelection would’ve all but guaranteed continued Democrat domination of Congress. At best, we might’ve gotten to 190 in the House (our maxing-out point from the ‘50s) and perhaps mid to high 40s in the Senate. Depending upon the Democrat who might win in 1996 and what the national situation was by 1998. One other problem the GOP faced for being in the minority so long is that you didn’t have people who would or could do what was necessary to win a majority. Gingrich at least deserves credit for changing that equation.

“Bush’s reelection would’ve all but guaranteed continued Democrat domination of Congress. At best, we might’ve gotten to 190 in the House (our maxing-out point from the ‘50s) and perhaps mid to high 40s in the Senate.”

That is pure speculation on your part. There were a whole slew of reasons why the GOP took the House and Senate in 1992, and a lot of them still would be applicable even had GHW Bush won reelection in 1992. You had anti-incumbency after 50 years of Democrat control. You had the Post Office scandal. You had a higher than usual number of ultraliberals elected in conservative districts in 1992. You had the creation of dozens of black-majority districts, making surrounding districts far more difficult for white Democrats to hold. That the national mood had turned sour on liberal Democrats by 1994 is clear as day, and had Bush been reelected it wouldn’t have changed things very much—or are you suggesting that it was Billery’s fault that Mario Cuomo lost reelection?

I think the GOP would have regained the Senate in 1994 even had Bush been reelected, and that the House would have either gone GOP or at least had more Republicans than at any point in the last few decades. The GOP was just *due*. Just like it is likely that the Democrats would have won the House and Senate in 2006 even had Kerry beaten Bush in 2004, and that the Democrats were due to suffer hefty losses in 2010 even had McCain beaten Obama in 2008, I don’t think the results of the 1994 elections were attributable solely to Clinton’s overreaching.