Skip to comments.Citi: The Fiscal Cliff Is 'SO RIDICULOUSLY LARGE'
Posted on 05/01/2012 5:43:13 AM PDT by blam
Citi: The Fiscal Cliff Is 'SO RIDICULOUSLY LARGE'
May 1, 2012
A quick paragraph from Citi's Steven Wieting which we found amusing, the gist of which is basically: The fiscal cliff coming in 2012 is so big, it's good, because it will have to get fixed.
The size of the so-called fiscal cliff at year end, which would unwind a decades worth of tax cuts and temporary income supports, is so ridiculously large relative to near- term growth prospects that markets may take some comfort in its scale. As Fed Chairman Bernanke warned Congress, the Fed would have no chance of offsetting an instantaneous shock so severe and noted he was hoping Congress would take action.
Wieting goes on...
The combined size of the year-end fiscal cliff implied in current law seems so flatly ridiculous relative to near-term growth prospects, that markets may in fact be feeling some calm that the resolve to once again delay and diffuse it will be found. In late 2010, figure 1 looked substantially the same before fiscal tightening pains were delayed to the period beyond the November 2012 elections. Since then, the size of the cliff grew with prospective spending cuts. Yet some doubt should remain, and we gather build at some point as to whether Congress and the President will be too divided to find an alternative to current law, particularly before the year is out and the new Congress is seated.
Here are the two charts showing the ridiculous changes in tax receipts and federal consumption.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
wait, I thought we were nuts for saying there was a cliff approaching?
“wait, I thought we were nuts for saying there was a cliff approaching?”
YOU ARE, according to the Media. This isn’t the Democrat-approved Current Truth. You must also be a RASSISS!
Around 2007 I argued that this could get as bad or worse than the Great Depression. At the time, I thought I was being a bit of an alarmist, but it now has, according to some statistics, actually gotten WORSE than the Great Depression. It is why I now call the Great Depression “World Depression I” (WDI) and I now call this one WDII.
Around 2007 I said this would probably start recovering from bottom in 2011 or 2012. I thought there was a remote possibility that it could go “apocalyptic”. I now FIRMLY believe it will go apocalyptic. As the title says, this is one hell of a cliff. When all is said and done, it will be the biggest socioeconomic collapse in the history of mankind.
In 2007 I said this could, as with WDI, end with a world war. I now have little doubt that it will. And it will be much worse and much more global (e.g. fighting on US soil) than WWII.
But in that last one is a caveat: I believe that for it to be that bad we will be talking Ezekiel 39, Daniel and Revelation. This means the “Beast” will amaze the “non-elect” with his solution to a problem that appears to have no solution. It means we may soon see this person rise to power.
There is no human solution to our problem. We will fall all the way to the bottom before the phoenix can even begin to rise. It’s gonna leave a mark. Pray for your children and grandchildren.
—Kicking the can...—
And each time it goes a shorter distance. They are about out of kicks.
All TARP and the bailouts did was delay the inevitable, and make it much worse in the end.
Prepper ping needed.
IMO, financial collapse is not only the most prominent threat to bring about TEOTWAWKI,
but it is imminent and unavoidable.
Spending is the problem, yet Wall Street gets spooked by any effort to really cut spending back even to the levels of 5 or 6 years ago. We have to cut spending, period. Then we have to cut it again and again. Our society is addicted to the heroin of government spending. It has to be cut. The irony is that Wall Street seems to think that money is taken out of the economy if the government stops spending. It isn’t. It is just spent by private persons. Even the debt — instead of buying bonds or T Bills, the investor invests in something else. Something productive. This is all so clear to me anymore. You either pay people to not be productive (ie, government spending) or you put money to work in the private sector to invent new products and services to better everyones’ lives. Government spending is a real drag on the improvement of our society.
—The fiscal cliff coming in 2012 is so big, it’s good, because it will have to get fixed.—
Baloney. Greece “has to be fixed”. How’s that going for them?
Any politician proposing the kind of austerity that would be required just to give us a fighting chance would be voted our so fast he’d never see it coming. If he’s running for office he might as well give up. The problem, as in most democracies, is the electorate. They will not support politicians that do the right thing. They vote their wallet.
Ultimately, the final option will be to monetize our way out of this. It is the only “solution” that is politically possible. Of course, with the amount of foreign debt floating around the world this time, that will lead to a very unpleasant war.
—All TARP and the bailouts did was delay the inevitable, and make it much worse in the end.—
Precisely. I told my republican friends that they may not want McCain to win, since whoever won would be labelled as responsible for the coming mess. But the “kick the can” actions have done nothing but delay, at the cost of increasing the height of the cliff dramatically. And there is no such thing as “terminal velocity”. The higher the cliff, the faster we will be going when we hit the rocks below.
I always wondered what would be the mechanism that would FORCE all the countries to give up their currency. Well...now I can honestly see how we get there. Even secular "prepper" types are warning that this is probably the only solution: A world wide "reset."
—Spending is the problem...—
And the REAL problem is that the government spending is so large that the “real” economy has a symbiotic relationship with it. Cut government spending enough to matter, and you ding the economy. It becomes a positive feedback loop, spiraling all the way to the bottom. The time for any “planned” solution has long passed. We are at the point in a head on auto accident where you just instinctively push your hands forward to stop the truck coming at you from passing into your face.
It really is not gonna help. It’s gonna hurt. A lot.
Yep. I see it as a socioeconomic collapse. The biggest in the history of mankind.
Listen to some of this guy’s webcasts:
The “socio” is inseparable from the “economic”.
The nuclear family is now the minority.
Bastardity has increased 6 times among minorities and 10 times among whites.
70% of “men” are not grown up by age 30.
Remember when they used to say it was all about middle east oil? Whatever sells books, I guess.
The final nail for me, regarding the social part, was participating in lots of internet debates about the Martin/Zimmerman case. But the debates about AGW, Obama’s policies, the FACT that many Americans are no longer insulted when you call them a Socialist, and many actually call themselves. socialist.
This isn’t your standard generation gap. This is Dr. Zivago, but on an international scale.
Funny about that “socialist” bit.
I have found that “most” leftists still bristle when they are rightfully labelled as socialist or communist.
Their argument is that their goals and policies don’t fit the dictionary definition of socialist.
To which I reply that, yes, their goals and policies would be more accurately characterized as “fascist”, but I didn’t want to start a fight.
Here’s a “what-if” experiment.
What if W, instead of mounting a war in Afghanistan, had simply laid one or two mirved Tridents on Tora Bora?
Mostly no survivors, any rest could sit in their cave and die. Poppy fields unusable for a long time, killing off a significant part of the drug trade. And CHEAP.
The Democrats would’ve been in a coffin forever.
Well, we’ve still got Ron Paul.
He’s the ONLY one who’s had this consistent message. Yes, he’s crap on foreign policy, but where has OUR foreign policy gotten us lately?
The socio is inseparable from the economic.
The nuclear family is now the minority.
Bastardity has increased 6 times among minorities and 10 times among whites.
70% of men are not grown up by age 30.
Where I live it is very diverse. Sometimes when I go out I try to see if these folks pushing the baby strollers with big fat stomachs EVER have on a wedding ring. I have yet to see anyone wearing one. They just travel in groups of women it seems — no men to be found.
Yes, it delayed things until 0bama could sneak into a second term. The last time he will have to stand for election. Welcome to Amerika!
And you had to love how McCain suspended his campaign to fly back to Washington DC...to do..........nothing.
What a putz.
—Well, weve still got Ron Paul.—
Doesn’t matter. Politics will not help us here. Politicians, right now, are as useful as the crew of the Titanic was as the water approached the floor of the Bridge.
In a very real sense, we are all on our own.
oh and Paul is staying in the race "until the votes are counted" and "might not support Romney".
check out #27
I always wondered what would be the mechanism that would FORCE all the countries to give up their currency. . . .
Since I studied economics in college, I have understood that inflation would be the road to ruin. Inflation robs everyone except the banks and the government. Banks because they loan the money at high interest that everyone must spend and governments because they spend the money first while it still has the most value.
There are ways to take advantage of it but it requires cash. Borrowing money for rental real estate is wise because your inflation will allow you to raise rents but your payments stay the same. The problem is if the loan is called, you simply have to have the cash to be safe.
To be safe you must now and I do mean right now, get as much precious metal as you can get your hands on. Silver and gold are both under valued right now. I highly recommend purchasing old american silver coin. Pre 1964 silver coins. In 1964 a gallon of gas cost $.30, 3 dimes. Today 3 silver dimes are worth over $7.00, nearly enough for two gallons of gas.
The value of silver will only go up with the devaluation of our dollars. I personally believe that Obama is intentionally ruining our currency so that he can remake the country in a Socialist image. I also believe that even though a huge percentage of Americans receive food stamps and unemployment checks they will still vote for Romney.
Does having a president Romney help? I don’t know but I doubt it. I think it is too late, once the TARP and easing one and two were done it pretty much sealed the fate. Our economy is toast. There are ways we could recover. If our Federal government removed regulations on energy production and mining we could get to full employment. With full employment and severe inflation we MIGHT be able to pay off the debt. A lot of people will be hurt badly but we could survive.
Energy is the key. Obama is thwarting domestic energy production for only one reason, to help bring the country to its knees. Our country cannot survive the way we know it without cheap energy. I don’t like Romney, but, if does nothing else other than making energy cheap he will save us from this disaster.
The Democrat leadership knows exactly what they are doing. They are doing what they were taught in the radical classrooms of the 60’s, they are being successful. If we survive and a decision is made to execute the Dems that made this happen I will volunteer for the job of pulling the trigger, especially if I get to kill the MSM leadership at the same time.
If I sound angry it is only because I am angry.
I think you are right, about the voting of the wallets, and so I try to relax, because there are forces at work here that are historical phenomena, and this government, or system of government, is not able, as constituted, to address them. This is why it reminds me of Weimar Germany. Reasonable people know that a collapse is coming, but it is not possible to marshal the political will to address it proactively. Perhaps it’s like a storm, a social storm. You can’t stop it. All you can do is try to take cover.
All of my adult life I’ve read the revelation prophecies and the related writings. I too thought we were very close to armageddon but then I started reading Joel Rosenberg, a Messianic Jew who writes fiction. He and the Holy spirit inspired me re-evaluate with some truly critical thinking.
Basically things will get a lot worse for all worldwide before even the Apocalypse. A fore-shadowing of tribulation
In a nutshell:
Although we appear very close to a worldwide financial collapse leading to a one world monetary system, how close are we to a one world religion and language?
What religion would the Anti-christ most likely employ [hint: if you want to counterfeit the dollar then you use the dollar right?]. Talk of a Muslim Anti-christ appears to be just to sell more books etc.
Apocalypse will preceed Armageddon but by how many years, or even decades? Apocalypse appears to be the supernatural defeat of all of Israels enemies referred to in Ezekial 38, 39 iirc. Will it wipe out the worldwide apostate religion - and the Islamic terrorists? Will it wipe out the Dome of the Rock allowing Israel to rebuild their Temple? Will it lead to a worldwide revival and salvation of many, re-infusing the christian religion worldwide as never before? Will all the other religions be abandoned by this supernatural defeat?
Will the rapture happen at the last possible minute before Israel signs the 7 year peace pact with this newly found ‘genius’ leader? Think about this one ~ the Holy Spirit is the restraining force restraining the Anti-christ from appearance onto the world scene. Therefore the rapture - removing of the saints and Holy Spirit residing w/i each true believer is necessary in order to bring about this ‘genius’ appearance ushering in a worldwide ‘peace’.
Mid - Trib and Post - Trib raptures do not appear to be possible b/c the 7 year peace treaty starts the countdown and the Anti-christ sitting in the mercy seat of the new temple demanding to be worshiped. This event represents exactly mid - trib. The church age believers will be in heaven but those accepting salvation after the rapture should know [be able to calculate] the day/hour of the mid-trib and the Armegeddon - with most or all major events and fulfilled end times prophecy being broadcast worldwide.
There is very little there I disagree with. I will state that I think the rapture is described pretty clearly in Revelation 7 though.
And just to throw a monkey wrench into this whole thing, what if the “false religion” is Mormonism?
As I said in my prior post - a counterfeit is something that looks and feels like the genuine article. So is the genuine article Christianity or Mormonism?
I’ve also come to relate the communist movement to the building of the kingdom of the AC.
When he comes to power, the consolidation and centralization of power will be nearly complete - under the rule of 10 regions if I remember correctly - then he’ll take over and these 10 “horns” turn their power over to him.
I’m pre-trib for the same reasons you’ve listed - the HS must be gone before he can appear, etc.
Not really. Only one “religion” on the planet depends on grace alone. That is Christianity. It is because it is not man-made.
Plus with communism it is easy to see how a day’s wages will not be enough even to buy our daily bread. The ruling class appetite is never satisfied ~ they never think they have enough.
cuban leaf ~ I only added the line regarding Mormonism due to your comment. Was that supposed to be some kind of test?
—Was that supposed to be some kind of test?—
Sorry. I thought you were attempting to say they were on equal “we don’t know which is correct” footing.
Never mind. ;-)
From 2011 to 2012 our vendors experienced a 40 % drop in sales for an event in Texas. If the economy is now even slowing in Texas, the Fat Lady is singing. Back in 2006-2007 time frame, it was common for our vendors to deal with large $50 and $100 bills during a sales event. This year in California, $20 bills were the large bills. Heck, we were even having people pay with $1 bills.
The only people surviving this are those that cut, cut, and cut their costs and prepare for the slowdown. Coincidentally, that is the exact opposite of what the US government is doing.
You need to read Revelation 18 more carefully.
Mystery Babylon, both secular and ecclesiastical, will be crashing soon, without W or the Kenyan doing anything.
You need to get ready yourself; are you a ‘Wise virgin,’ or a foolish one?
Do you know what to look for, and WHEN to look for it?
Your post tells me that you do not.
>> “In a very real sense, we are all on our own.” <<
If you are on your own, then you are NOT one of YHWH’s elect.
Are you watching for the abomination? Do you know what it will be? WHO it will represent?
Keyboard economists are as useful as the crew of the Titanic was as the water approached the floor of the Bridge.
What do you expect with economists like Reich and Krugman.
Whenever I hear “Wise Virgin”, “Wise as snakes”, or “YHVES elect”, I know I’m very far outside the beaten track of rational thought. Or even just thought.
As I perceived, you are simply one of the lost, as your post indicated.
No wonder you’re thrashing.
—Are you watching for the abomination? Do you know what it will be? WHO it will represent?—
Does the Pope wear a funny hat?
i.e. I’ve been studying it since 1983.
We’ve kicked the can so far down the road that we are running out of road and can which was once the size of a soft drink can is now the size of an oil drum (Try kicking that!
For those who are just starting or are old hands at prepping you may find my Preparedness Manual helpfull. You can download it at:
NOTE! THIS IS A FREE DOWNLOAD. I DO NOT MAKE ONE CENT OFF MY PREPAREDNESS MANUAL!
For those of you who havent started already its time to prepare almost past time maybe. You needed to be stocking up on food guns, ammo, basic household supplies like soap, papergoods, cleaning supplies, good sturdy clothes including extra socks, underwear and extra shoes and boots, a extra couple changes of oil and filters for your car, tools, things you buy everyday start buying two and put one up.
As the LDS say When the emergency is upon us the time for preparedness has past.
Or as the bible says: A prudent man sees danger and takes refuge, but the simple keep going and suffer for it.
NIV Proverbs 22:3
Lastly this for the doubters and the scoffers.
There is no greater disaster than to underestimate danger.
Underestimation can be fatal.
and Pauly doesn't give a hoot about any of that....legal porn...legal drugs...legal prostitution...homos doing whatever they want to whoever they want.....
have character and values and morality and it doesn't matter if the economy goes ballistic or we have world war....WE WILL SURVIVE!
yeah, but don't vote for Romney...no just keep obamey in there...
yep...that's the ticket...
You need only look to the Eurozone to see why that will not happen in our lifetimes.